GIVEN how often the story changes this blog could date very quickly. However much of what you will read here I am afraid is true and a sad indictment on both sides of this mess.
If it comes to pass then a ‘No Deal’ Brexit is not the fault of me or 16 odd million remain voters nor the ‘mainstream media’, no Emmanuel Macron or Angela Merkel. It’s a failure of statecraft on both sides of the table.
Having called a referendum, former Prime Minister David Cameron should have instructed the Cabinet Secretary to prepare a briefing paper to outline just what a departure from the EU would actually involve. It may never have seen the light of day but would have hugely informed our clueless political class.
Instead he walked away the next morning in a ‘not my fault, guv’ sort of way, sulking that a majority of voters hadn’t listened to a Prime Minister with a thin majority.
His replacement walked into Downing Street and there on the cabinet table was a blank sheet of paper just with Brexit scrawled at the top.
At no point since June 23 has any Prime Minister defined just what Brexit meant. Hard-working voters on all sides were just told ‘Brexit means Brexit and we’re going to make the best of it’. A more vacuous statement you’ll struggle to find…
The lack of a defined vision has poured into the negotiations, the British side saying here’s what we want and you’ll jolly well agree and the EU pointing out that we can’t keep the benefits if we want to leave the club.
A well-briefed Government would have seen many of the red flags as far back as 2016 – on Northern Ireland, on fishing, on borders, trade etc.
Three and a half years to be proactive and cut through the tape ourselves rather than wait to be handed the scissors.
It would have also allowed room for realpolitik where the Government could have made some bold offers to the European Union and moved the emphasis on Brussels to compromise.
Instead we argued among ourselves, wasted hundreds of hours in Parliament and still to this day think we hold all the cards, we hold none.
Under the current incumbent of Number 10, the Government’s policy seems to be bluster, bullshit and braggadocio – any failure will solely down to the EU and not poor old Boris.
It won’t, there will be no winners from No Deal.
That includes in the European Union, while it’s perfectly understandable they have stuck firm to the principles of the constitution for member states there is a real stubbornness emerging in recent days.
Barnier et al appear to have a developed a weird form of Stockholm Syndrome where they appear to identify with their captors. He and the bloc do not appear to understand that in leaving Britain has no interest in protecting the member states, it doesn’t have to.
Access is sought to our waters to fish in the same breath as we are being told we cannot access EU member benefits.
Dangerously it also appears Brussels doesn’t think the UK will ever pull the pin on ‘No Deal’ – while the last few years appears to back that judgement it’s a frightening assumption to have.
No side wants to ‘give in’ out of sheer selfish greed. Our Government doesn’t want to concede ground for fear of Farage but is cautious of the impact of leaving without a deal in this Covid climate.
The EU has a deep fear the British will make a success of things and set the bar accordingly to try and ensure that didn’t happen. Success in London could spark itchy feet in Rome, Madrid and Athens. But it also knows Britain on its doorstep would be a welcome trade partner for millions of businesses across the bloc.
Whatever your opinion I do urge you to listen to the excellent Ros Atkins here https://twitter.com/i/status/1336793564165124096 who explains just why sealing the deal is proving somewhat of a challenge.
