Ashcroft poll highlights PM's problem

POLITICAL sage Lord Ashcroft has delivered another piece of enthralling research, this time on 40 key marginals across the UK.

A total of 32 seats are narrowly held by the Conservatives over Labour, eight by them over coalition partners the Liberal Democrats.

The good news for Mr Cameron is that the Tories will hold those eight seats from their Liberal Democrat partners.

The bad is Labour would take the 32 seats AND a further 66 should the party notch up the 8.5 per cent swing Ashcroft has found in these marginals, enough to put Ed Miliband in Downing Street with no need for deals...

But this is no 1997 landslide in the making, more chronically worrying for Mr Cameron is Labour is so strong in these marginals because the Conservative vote has jumped ship to UKIP with Lord Ashcroft recording a rise in eight points since in the Farage vote since 2010.

In my professional life (professional? me? lol) I saw first hand the UKIP threat covering the local elections in Worcestershire in May. While UKIP did not win a seat in my patch they reduced some pretty hefty Tory majorities almost to dust.

They even kicked Tory councillors out in some parts of the county and there's the rub for the Conservatives. Accept UKIP is a problem for predominatly them to handle, they may yet win in 2015, deny it and they lose.

While Ed Miliband floats along, the Prime Minister would do well to turn the attack away from Labour and on to UKIP to try and tempt his waivering voters back. Strong leadership, real signs the economy is back off its sick bed and a concentration on core Conservative values would help.

A business focused PM, one that looked after the pennies and made people feel wealthier again and Labour are quite possibly knackered.

While I applaud the PM for his gay marriage legislation, that was a second term issue and something rushed into, a charge you can level at Mr Cameron rather a lot since 2010.

And the truth is, he really ought to tell the backbenchers to simply put up or shut up, Major did it with Redwood in 95 and was thrashed in 1997 but Miliband is not proving to be Tony Blair, at the moment.

David Cameron is already the Conservative Prime Minister who lost the unloseable election, will he be the Conservative PM who lost the country to Labour thanks to UKIP?

Goodbye, goodnight and thank you - Sir David Frost 1939 - 2013

THE death of Sir David Frost last Sunday provoked tributes from across the world, not surprising really for a man that has interviewed most of the famous faces around the world.

One of the saddest feelings was that a man who made such brilliant television during his career was not in a high profile role at the time of his death.

From That Was The Week That Was, to the Frost Report and from Frost on Sunday to Through the Keyhole, there was a charm and panache to whatever Sir David did.

And of course there was the legendary interviews with disgraced former US President Richard Nixon, dramatised in the film Frost/Nixon.

Watch the film yes but watch the actual interviews as well, a gradual and forensic disection of a man about to fall from grace.

His BBC One show Frost on Sunday set the agenda on a Sunday like no other political show has since, people like Marr and Andrew Neil can only emulate what Frost achieved.

But they were journalists from day one, Frost was a satitrist in the early days and actually made TV shows not just plonked in front of a camera. I think that is what set him apart and allowed him to get to the heart of the policy and spin.

Reading a number of political memoirs shows how feared Frost was, in the nicest possible way of course. Politicians feared an interview because they knew whatever message they wanted to convey would be subjected to the severest possible scrutiny.

Something which is missing now, too often programmes have been briefed in advance by Number 10 or the opposition meaning our elected officials are exposed to the lightest possible scrutiny.

His programmes often included an element of comedy as well and often showcased the talents of Rory Bremner, a satirist as well as impressionist.

I always admired him and his interviewing style and the fact he was a huge cricket fan and Arsenal supporter helped greatly!

So it was only right his beloved Arsenal beat Spurs 1-0 on the afternoon Sir David left us!

Goodbye, goodnight and thank you Sir David, may you rest in peace.

In defence of Ed Miliband and Labour

David Aaronovitch's piece in The Times today has convinced me that as far as our national news media is concerned, the 2015 General Election should be shelved in favour of a continued coalition or a Conservative government.

 

For those of you lucky enough not have read it, it is yet another attack on Miliband for taking a position on something.

 

Aaronovitch brands Miliband 'a vulture' and deplores him for not racing to support the Prime Minister's initial view Syrian should be blown to bits.

 

On Syria, there is no doubt Miliband played politics in the sense he knew the Conservative were hardly fully united behind their leader.

 

One of the roles of the opposition is to make the incumbent Prime Minister look weak and feeble, if you need proof look at at the sustained assault on Major by Blair for three years.

 

But Miliband has to define himself as leader, many in the UK think of Labour in relation to Iraq, is there anything wrong with a Labour leader urging restraint and diplomacy?

 

We have no CATEGORICAL proof Assad gassed his own people and we do not know what the tyrant would do in the event of any strike against the country.

 

Could he fire on Israel? Would Israel then retaliate? How would Iran respond? - can you see how quickly one strike against Assad could trigger even more tension in an already heated Middle East.

 

But Aaronovitch's piece is no surprise, Miliband simply cannot win with anyone in the national media at the moment.

• He doesn't take a position on something – we are told we don't know what he stands for
• He takes a position on something – he's not a natural leader, he is so wrong etc

On breaking Labour's historic link to the unions, Miliband proposed a change to let workers opt in rather than be forced to see some of their subscription go to the party.

 

Modern idea for modern and austere times, there may be people in unions who don't actually support Labour, so why should they help fund them?

 

But what did we hear, oh it will never work, Miliband won't do it he was voted in by the unions, etc.

 

And of course the economy, Tories blame Labour for reckless spending while in office (Conservative Party under Cameron supported Labour's spending plans until 2008).

 

I won't pretend I agree with everything Miliband has done, his rampant support for Leveson and closeness to Hacked Off annoy me.

 

I am also one of those who feel Alistair Darling must be brought back as Chancellor next year to add experience to the Shadow Cabinet.

 

And the party conference this year should not be about vision and hope, it needs to give a first glimpse of a future Government.

 

A 'vulture' then? No, just the leader of the opposition trying to end this cycle of long periods of opposition once a party has been kicked out of Government.

An Ashes battle won on the pitch and in the mind

I suspect that when we think back to the Ashes series of 2013 it won’t be with the fondness reserved for the to and fro of 2009 or the sheer Hollywood drama that was 2005.

The Australian fightback was brave yes but when you are beaten and beaten well in the first two tests its almost academic. We should know, English cricket teams fought for 18 years when the Ashes were gone or almost gone!

But 3-0 is 3-0 and while some experts say England did not deserve 4-0 they were within a light meter
reading of notching it up.

Truth be told England have not been brilliant, neither have Australia, but when it came to it, England delivered big time, Australia didn’t.

As a veteran Ashes watcher (ok I am 31 but god England let me down a lot when I was a young pup) what has been interesting is the sentence above – England won the big moments.

Before 2005, England had Australia down but just when the final push for victory began, Warne,
Waugh, Ponting, McGrath or someone else popped up and denied England.

That does not happen now, Australia have competed hard in this series, but when the final push began, they floundered at the hands of Anderson, Broad, Swann and Bell.

At Trent Bridge, the Australians took a lead in the first innings and had England on the ropes, enter Ian Bell with a hundred. In the chase, every time Australia looked to be on the way to victory they lost wickets.

At Lords, they bowled England out for much less than the ‘experts’ said was par, but were rolled for 128 themselves. Even when they reduced England to 30 for 3 the lead was still 263, it was a target they never looked like chasing.

Rain ruined their chances at Old Trafford but in Durham the Aussies were 168 for 2 and looking comfy chasing 299 for victory.

But when the winning post beckoned them, again Australia tripped themselves up and Stuart Broad took six for 20 in 45 balls to seal a stunning win.

I suspect Michael Clarke wanted to set England 250 at the Oval but again Cook’s bowlers chipped away in what was a second innings slog meaning the Aussie skipper had no choice but to offer 227 in 44 overs, rather generous..

What will happen Down Under? I suspect England will play better on quicker pitches but if Australia can go back to the old days and win the big moments it won’t be the cake-walk many expect.

As it stands though, many English cricket fans my age had not seen England win the Ashes in their lifetime, now we are celebrating a fourth win in five series.

Keep it up lads!

Stupidity denies spectacular end to boring test

WHEN cricket breathes its last breath it will look back to events like Sunday and say ‘Ohhh yeah, we could have done better there’.

Just 21 were needed for England to win the fifth and final Ashes test when Aleem Dar and Kumar Dharmasena decided it was far too dark to carry on and took the players off.

We’ll ignore the fact their concern did not prevent them letting Mitchell Starc bowl 90mph for six balls, we’ll also ignore the fact that it seemed only Peter Siddle was struggling to pick up the ball.

Two balls before the end, mid on dashed into to field a ball, clean and one handed threw it back to the bowler, you see it was pitch black out there....

We’ll also ignore Michael Clarke’s badgering of the umpires – as Geoff Boycott said you can’t dangle a carrot and then protest when it looks like you will lose.

Instead thousands who had been roused for an unexpected finale were told it was too dark, then looked up to see four big floodlights illuminating the ground.

The ICC have to wake up and realise t20 cricket is so popular because it’s free from bureaucracy and silly regulation.

The same MUST be applied to test cricket, too much will be said tomorrow about poor Michael Clarke and what a lovely declaration.

The truth is if some fielders couldn’t see the ball, I bet Bell and Woakes were having a bit of trouble picking up 90mph deliveries – it was the same for both teams!

Surely in 2013 we can have a regulation where the light can be over-ruled if there is a realistic prospect of a result?

Especially at the end of a test match which, let’s face it, hardly provided value for the money test match fans are now being asked for.

The light was closing in, but this was not Karachi in 2000 when England and Pakistan played to a finish in the dark.

Some commentators have pointed to that as a reason for the ICC not to go back to the rule where the light was offered to the batsmen.

But the argument is false, there were no floodlights in Karachi, had there not been at the Oval there would be no debate – it was that dark.

But the field was illuminated and surely messers Dar and Dharmasena should have a ‘common sense mandate’ to say a result is possible, the light is the same for both sides, let’s finish.

The reaction of the crowd spoke volumes, cricket has not got the same mass appeal as football, it cannot afford to annoy its spectators too much.

Are you listening Mr Richardson?

Britain is tumbling towards the edge

The row over David Miranda has convinced me to write this blog and confess something, I am geniunely frightened for the future of the UK.

 

A number of events have taken place in the last few weeks which make me think we as British citizens are heading for disaster.

 

No I am not talking about immigration, the economy or even politics as such, I am genuinely frightened about the direction of this country.

 

We have a campaign to get a woman on the £10 note, ignoring the fact there has been one on all banknotes for more than 60 years, she is called HM The Queen.

 

Not for one second do I condone the morons who targeted the lady who led the campaign – they are sad pathetic little boys with little else to do.

 

We have a campaign to ban Page 3 and to get lads mags to cover up in supermarkets – to hear supporters of such campaigns talk it makes me think these ladies are tied up and gagged until they agree to pose for such pictures!

 

'It demeans women' and most shamefully there is a quote at the top of this page nomorepage3.org/about/ which links page three to rape and sexual assault.

 

Let's make this clear, rapists don't get their kicks off page three then go and rape a woman. Rapists

are cold blooded vile human beings who see no harm in the vile crime they perpetrate.

 

'The paper is left lying around for children to see' – then if they ask let's go back to a time where adults answer questions about the human body in an age appropriate way.

 

We don't talk to children about sex and their growing bodies enough, too many then seek to explore with the unwanted consequences of unplanned pregnancy.

 

'It makes girls think about their bodies' – on this I am with the campaigners, the pressure on teenage girls is vile at times, more needs to be done to encourage young girls to be who they are not what magazines tell them to be.

 

But is page 3 or Zoo magazine guilty of that? What about Heat, OK, Closer with their celebrity images, should they be blacked out to because they show the 'desired' body of Jennifer Aniston et al.

 

No, we as a society need to talk, to tell teenage girls that their bodies are just that, theirs and the only

opinion that matters is there own.

 

And finally, David Miranda being detained for nine hours......for taking stolen classified documents through an airport.

 

To listen to Glenn Greenwald and the Guardian's reporters you would think Britain had become some police state, that Miranda was beaten and tortured...

 

Ironic that a newspaper that supported state regulation of the press after Leveson now is complaining about......state regulation of the press!

 

When you listen to the debate, remember Edward Snowden now lives in Russia having spilled state American and perhaps British secrets to the Chinese and Putin in Moscow.

 

Snowden should be going down in history as a modern day William Mark Felt Sr (Deep Throat) for exposing a naughty Government programme.

 

And that dear reader is why I am frightened, all of this going on yet when the elected Prime Minister

of the day asks us to vote whether we want a new Government or not, less than 40 per cent of us take part.

 

There is a dark side to modern Britain, something I'm not sure I want to see

Panesar pain is sad to see

THE news Monty Panesar is being released by Sussex at the end of the season and joining Essex on loan is another chapter in a desperately sad story.

His altercation with bouncers in a Hove nightclub was initially quite funny, sadly that was before the full facts emerged.

In the cold light of day it could be seen as a cry for help, something I suspect more than one cricketer needs.

Panesar’s marriage has collapsed and he is away from family and friends both living in Hove and while on the relentless schedule that is county cricket.

He turned to alcohol alongside Rory Hamilton-Brown, another cricketer who needs support after the death of his friend Tom Maynard.

Salvation has never been found in the bottle of lager and while Hamilton-Brown is rebuilding his very existence away from the pain of the Oval, Panesar is in search of answers.

It’s very easy to say he throwing his life away, that he did not perform for England in New Zealand and that his actions recently deserve an exclusion from the England team.

But unlike Hamilton-Brown who escaped London for the seclusion of Hove, Monty needs acceptance, being in the England team was his buzz and his raison d’être.

No one knows how much trouble his personal life was in when he was away in New Zealand and hopefully Andy Flower is understanding enough not to call time on Panesar’s career with England.

But a bowling average of 40 for Sussex compared to 23 last year is not going to earn him a place in the team.

And it is not Monty who should seek answers, he should be given them by those closest to him, Sussex have allowed him closer to home, important for him.

But England need to tell him the door is not closed for good but a winter at home with his loved ones will be much better than one in the pressure cooker that is the Ashes in Australia.

It’s too easy to say sportsmen shouldn’t have troubles, they are human like everyone else.

Many of us are big Monty fans, the delight he had playing for England was infectious; hopefully it may happen again one day.