Debunking Jeremy Corbyn

WHILE David Cameron staked it all at the EU casino and walked away empty handed, Jeremy Corbyn remains, loathed by the majority of his MPs and MEPs, viewed with contempt by his opponents and, crucially, not that welcome with the electorate.

After 2015 we ought to not rely on opinion polls as much we still do but the latest ICM poll has the Conservatives 16 POINTS in front of Labour.

That's a Tory party which has fallen out over Europe, seen backstabbing and skulduggery akin to a chapter from Macbeth, elected a new Prime Minister unopposed and even appear to ditch Austerity 1.0 for the slightly better Optimism 2.0.

Meanwhile the Labour top brass will go around saying it's all the plotters and rebels fault, that they should all fall into line and together he will lead them to the promised land of Government.....

Except that is not true and Corbyn knows it, he simply wants to take 'his party' back. Plenty has been said to discredit good Labour people in recent days so let's examine Jeremy Corbyn.

"Those against him should respect his mandate from the members" - Yes and a fine victory too, there can be no doubt he energised what would have been a really dull campaign. Quite simply he spoke with a passion Labour voters needed to hear after a crushing defeat to the Tories. None of the others came anywhere close.

However, how many of the £3 members voted for him and were genuine Labour supporters? How many joined to get their man in and have now left?

And while we are on 'respecting mandates' consider this; the Labour party's official position on Trident is to support renewal. This was voted on by members at the party's annual conference last year.

On July 18, Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the Labour Party voted AGAINST renewing the nuclear deterrent. So while the Corbynistas want everyone to 'respect the mandate' they won't lead by example.

"The media are against him" - Another frequent moan is how the media is against Jeremy Corbyn, well t'was ever thus. Newspapers pick a party and side with them, is it fair? No of course not but it hasn't stopped others from winning the media over.

In terms of broadcast well Jeremy is hardly the most affable with a camera. His first shadow cabinet appointments took so long to reveal that when a reporter found him to ask a few easy questions all Jeremy could say was he was being 'harassed'.

And yet when it comes to speaking to Press TV in Iran or Russia Today, Jeremy is only too happy to have a chat...

"He's won every by-election since he became leader" - Again not a bad feat especially as all four by-elections the candidates increased their majorities. But the indisputable fact is they were all held in safe Labour seats; it would have been more of a story had Labour LOST them not retained them.

Ah but London is back under a Labour Mayor - yup and did Sadiq Khan have Jeremy Corbyn at his side throughout the campaign, no. He like many other candidates distanced themselves and let's face it when all the Tories could do is point to Khan's ethnicity then Labour had the keys to London in the bag.

Labour under Corbyn is emulating the 2015 election under Ed Miliband, securing its safe seats with no progress elsewhere.

To form a Government in the UK, either one of the two main parties has to secure their heartlands but also appeal to voters in swing seats, where majorities are on a knife edge. Labour show no sign of doing that but instead losing even more votes to the likes of UKIP.

"A kinder, gentler politics"  - Corbyn promised different, more grown up politics, debating not shouting, action not reaction. The truth has been anything but, from the bullying 'Momentum' to the disgraceful smearing of a Jewish MP, Corbyn and his acolytes just can't help themselves.

McDonnell called rebel MPs 'f****** idiots' but then said it was just a 'joke', and social media is not the place to be if you have an anti-Corbyn opinion.

The truth is Labour is being led by a clique, a closed shop of people who are serial rebellers but now demand loyalty, by people so dominated by their own dogma they lose sight of what really matters in 2016 Britain and quite frankly, a bunch of hypocrites.

Jeremy Corbyn isn't a 'man of principle', he's a hypocrite.

No cover up over Whittingdale, he just needs a better taste in wome

SO John Whittingdale has a relationship with a 'dominatrix', the press become aware of the story and had an 'obligation' to report it according to critics.

But they didn't because Whittingdale as Culture Secretary will be the ultimate arbiter over press freedom in this country and now is 'compromised'.

Now I have only worked in local journalism and maybe have a positive view of my profession but sorry, this is not a 'row', it's barely even news.

The key point is Whittingdale is a single man and began and ended the relationship before he became Culture Secretary.

If the press had reported it, Whittingdale could rightfully have claimed an invasion of privacy because as a single man he can do whatever he likes within the law.

Plus the story would have been basically 'single man meets woman on dating website who isn't all she's cracked up to be' – not something which will sell newspapers!

The only point at which it could have been in the public interest is if he had been cheating on his wife/partner, I suspect most editors tossed the story to one side because it's not really news.

If we open the door to reporting on the actions of single men and women in all walks of life then where will it end?

Whittingdale admitted the relationship in a statement and expressed his embarrassment, he's not compromised over regulating the press because he confirmed the relationship himself!

Yes, he'll probably face awkward moments with the editors' of our newspapers for a while and maybe his credibility is damaged but a sense of perspective here is vital.

Whittingdale is entitled to date in private, unless his partner wishes to go public as Justine Miliband did when Ed Miliband was Labour leader.

But maybe have a better choice in women eh John?

Tories will regret stepping back in time

"We're leaving Downing Street for the last time," no not the late Baroness Thatcher but the words David Cameron will be using following a leadership coup despite his successful EU referendum campaign.

A prediction yes, but the odds on this happening should be shorter than Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

Just like Thatcher the storm clouds are circling round the Prime Minister. Despite being a majority winning Tory leader and despite winning reforms in the EU once again it seems the Tories want to throw it all down the toilet over Europe.

The comparisons are endless, a majority winning Tory premier, a Labour opposition not really bidding for power under a polarising leader, an uncertain economy. We may as well be back in 1990!

One wonders who will stick the final knife in aka the late Geoffrey Howe. Perhaps / sharp stiletto from Theresa May?

The Out brigade spent the weekend whining that Dave should stop being so nasty and hurtful about them. This despite the Prime Minister actively allowing members of his own cabinet to campaign for an 'out' vote....

They didn't seek to dismiss stories of a leadership challenge though? Why? Because figures like Boris Johnson know this campaign will be enough to bring down Cameron and start afresh with a more 'Conservative' leader.

The Outers have a back up in plan just in case they lose the referendum. They will oust Cameron instead as punishment , why else would Boris tell the world he wants out but what a marvellous job the PM did in Brussels?

If he really wanted out he would surely be at the forefront of the campaign for Britain to leave the EU? Not to one side letting messers Farage and Galloway hog centre stage.

Either way Cameron's time as PM can now be measured in months not years, his only hope is the Tory grassroots find the tactics of Johnson et al unpalatable and Boris's hopes end up crushed under a London bendy bus.

Allowing the stage to clear for a new face someone who wanted out but stayed loyal to the Prime Minister. And who is a proud Thatcherite....Prime Minister Sajid Javid anyone? 

PM won't serve a third term...he's got to win a second first!

A PUZZLING annoucement from the Prime Minister during an 'at home' interview with the BBC, he won't serve a third term at Number 10...

Puzzling because of it's timing, why on earth would you on the verge of the election campaign proper say you only want the job for one more term then you'll be off?

Puzzling because recent history shows PMs who set out their future plans tend to limp along until the end, see Tony Blair after he said in 2004 he wouldn't serve a full third term. He then faced mutiny and uncertainty regularly until he eventually departed in 2007.

Puzzling because the Conservatives love a good old bunfight over the leadership, a vote for the Tories in May will gurantee lots of jostling for position and in-fighting, particularly as Cameron named his chosen three; May, Osborne and Boris. Wonder what Sajid Javid and the other 'rising stars' think about his comments.

And puzzling because technically, the PM hasn't won an election yet, either in 2010 or the upcoming poll. His comments, however well intentioned, could be percieved as arrogance from a man who didn't win a majority in 2010.

Put simply the Conservatives are shooting themselves in the foot at every turn, every good sound bite and economic news they have is undone by strategic mistakes.

The Tories ought to be doing better, Labour are led by a man who simply hasn't sealed the deal with his core Labour vote let alone floating voters, the Lib Dems are near enough finished while the UKIP pint has been watered down in recent weeks.

It's as if the Tories don't understand that to obtain a majority Government they need to do better than 2010, a very hard challenge granted but the circumstances are there.

Cameron should have embarked on his 2010 'meet the people' strategy and debated Miliband head to head. Not doing so has render his 'weak' tag on Miliband virutally redundant.

Labour's task now is to weave a narrative which once again labels Cameron arrogant, point out he failed to win a majority in 2010 and question again why he won't debate his record.

If they are successful then Cameron will indeed not serve a third term, he won't get a second either!

General Election TV Debates – The Solution

This is less of a blog, more of an open letter to all the party leaders and to the broadcasters, a solution to your current ‘dilemma’ over the proposed debates.

STRUCTURE – one debate between David Cameron and Ed Miliband and one between Cameron, Miliband and Clegg. Instead of inviting just Farage to the last one, invite him, Natalie Bennett from the Greens and George Galloway from Respect. It’s not beyond podium builders to come up with seven platforms you know!

Every party which is represented in Westminster and could feasibly field candidates in every constituency across the UK would then have a platform.

SCOTLAND, WALES AND NI – For a party very keen to distance itself from the ‘Westminster elite’, the SNP has spent a lot of time demanding to be in the debates. Why? People in England cannot vote for them. Same with Plaid Cymru and the various Northern Ireland parties, should they have a platform? No.

Instead, why not have country specific debates. I mean wasn’t the whole point of the Scottish devolution vote to ensure the Scottish voice was heard. Why not have a debate between the SNP, Scottish Labour, Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Liberal Democrats? Sky ran one the last time and it proved very successful.

Surely the voters in those countries want to know what the various parties are going to do for the country if returned to Westminster? It’s not about exclusion it’s about issues that matter to those in the respective countries are addressed.

AND IF THEY DON’T AGREE – empty chair them, this applies to the PM if he is indeed ‘chicken’ but also call Miliband’s bluff as well. Quite simply if an invited guest doesn’t turn up, leave the podium empty and let the British public draw their own conclusions.

Simple? Yeah pretty much, so is there any chance you lot can get on and sort it out because frankly there are one or two hugely more important issues affecting us at the moment!

To lose one MP is careless, to lose two is Reckless

AND another one has gone, this time Mark Reckless ditches the Conservatives for the loving embrace of UKIP.

The Rochester and Strood MP spirited away under the cover of darkness from Westminster to land in Doncaster and be the latest to stand up and put the Prime Minister down on a number of issues.

Timing wise, Nigel Farage has hit the jackpot again. We had the 'surprise' defection with Douglas Carswell, this time it was the 'timed' defection, 3pm Saturday afternoon, just as the Sunday papers were being put together ahead of day one of the Conservative Party Conference.

To call the party management shambolic is an understatement, chief whip Michael Gove appears to be phoning MPs up, asking if they are planning to defect and accepting it when the person (defecting or not) says no.

Where is the bullish party management of opposition? Why is no one getting on the front foot and telling these MPs it would be folly to defect and hammer home the message Cameron is on their side?

Instead the party's approach appears to be sit back, let it happen, smear the defector and laugh that 'jolly old UKIP are being little scoundrels aren't they?'.

Everytime Grant Shapps stands up and says Reckless 'lied and lied and lied' or the Prime Minister calls the move 'illogical' and 'a vote for UKIP is a vote for Ed Miliband' another wavering MP wonders whether he/she should make the leap.

Those feelings will only strengthen if, as expected, Carswell romps back to the House of Commons in UKIP colours on October 8. I imagine those feelings could be overbearing should Reckless do the same sometime in November.

A vote for UKIP is not 'a vote for Ed Miliband' per se. UKIP is rapidly becoming a comfy home for former Tories totally disenfranchised with the current Conservative Party.

If Cameron and his inner circle haven't grasped that yet, they should and quick. Because by the time the Prime Minister approaches the lectern to deliver his final speech to the party before the General Election next year, he may of lost another MP.

The 'maximum impact' defection....

Miliband wasn't inspiring, but he was clever

THE COMMENTARIART has spoken, Miliband was dull, boring and did not look like a Prime Minister in waiting.

They are right in the sense it was dull and boring as a whole but Prime Ministerial? Yes I think so, quiet and unassuming but with more gravitas than the previous 'Quiet Man' Iain Duncan Smith.

What they fail to appreciate is how the speech came across on the news channels, who need soundbites not great long diatribes.

On that Miliband scored big in my opinion, the line about Cameron not lying awake worried about the UK but about UKIP will have hurt and resonated with many voters.

And on Europe, Miliband's attack lines on Cameron would not only resonate with voters but with the Carswell section of the Conservatives who don't believe the Prime Minister is serious about reforming the 

European Union.

He was silly forgetting the deficit and immigration lines from the speech, his memory capacity is admirable but an Autocue is sometimes your best friend.

But those issues are front and centre of UK's voters minds so Miliband will have to talk about it between now and polling day.

Where Miliband was clever was in the use of the NHS, any Labour leader knows if they stroke the NHS, 

the members purr and the Tories cower.

The Mansion Tax - tobacco tax – hedge fund tax policy is economically sound and would provide a great big cash cow for the National Health Service.

As long as the party continues to press ahead with it, that alone should ensure Labour's core vote will at least have to think very hard before crossing to UKIP.

And it's a clever policy, it dares the Conservatives to oppose it knowing full well should they oppose they will be painted as the party of the rich and privileged and not caring about the NHS.

Thanks to the gift that keeps giving that is Grant Shapps, Labour are already ahead as the Conservatives released a poster saying Labour wanted to tax 'your family home'.....I I'd missed all those mansions in inner 

city London and Birmingham!

The criticism of the commentariart surprises me, we need to stop judging the parties on their conferences, a 

social gathering for four days.

I will be judging Cameron, Miliband and Clegg when the Prime Minister dissolves parliament for the election.

Only then should we assess those in the running for the biggest job in the country.

Scotland's vote is last act of a dying Government

THURSDAY will see a nation go to the polls faced with the biggest question asked of an electorate for many a year: Do they wish to break a 300 year old marriage and go it alone?.

There is no doubt the referendum on Scottish independence has been a good thing, it has energised people and got a nation talking about politics and voting.

But whatever the result, this week marks the beginning of the end of David Cameron's time as Prime Minister. Quite simply, the leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party could oversee the end of the union, that's a mistake I doubt even he can come back from.

Perhaps reports of his demise in the aftermath of a Yes vote are a little far-fetched, I doubt the British economy would sustain the news of Scottish independence and the resignation of a Prime Minister within 48 hours of each other!

But it would signal Cameron's time at the top was nearly over, the vultures are circling with Boris looking a shoo-in in Uxbridge and most of the cabinet are Osborne loyalists - leaving the PM with very few friends at the top.

Even Uncle Rupert appears lukewarm in backing the Tories with his hints that independence could be good for Scotland, knowing full well the damage a yes would cause to the Conservative Prime Minister.

David Cameron will become the first PM in history to lose not because the opposition was much more electable (Labour aren't) but because he's just made too many tactical errors.

1) He hasn't managed the coalition well.

Cameron needed Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats in 2010 but what he needed to do from the outset was make it clear, they contributed just 1/6th of the coalition Government and policy would be Conservative-driven.

Instead he has been in thrall to Clegg and let the junior partners get away with a number of statements such as their apparent u-turn on the Bedroom Tax. Instead of putting them on the spot and telling them to vote with their feet, knowing it would send them off the political cliff, he's allowed the Lib Dems the airwaves to try and rewrite history.

2) But ignored his party...

It's no co-incidence his party aren't happy. Conservative backbenchers wanted Tory rule after 13 years away, instead they got a Tory Government watered down with a bit of Lib Dem.

Many want to see him rule properly, but within 12 months the old rivalries spilled out and open rebellion ensured.

3) He shouldn't have introduced fixed term Parliaments

Fixed five year parliament has not worked, the party has begun it's last year of the current cycle with very little ideas, very little enthusiasm and with a reshuffle based on image not talent. Government's in this country only go into the fifth year in a desperate attempt to roll the dice and hope their fortunes change, look at Major in 92 and Brown in 2010.

Rather than five year fixed term, make it compulsory to hold an election every four years. The fortunes of the ruling party do rather improve at the end of four year cycles.

4) He ignored and then didn't grasp the UKIP threat

'Fruitcakes' and 'Loons' were the words used by the Prime Minister to describe Nigel Farage and UKIP....oh how he must regret that now.

Quite simply the PM and his party didn't recognise UKIP began hoovering up traditional Tory votes a long time ago. Farage represents the halcyon days of the Conservatives, big on business, tough on Europe and traditional British values.

He dismissed them until it was too late, now many have gone and won't come back but still Cameron and his team still disrespect UKIP. Cameron should get on the front foot, agree to the debates and agree to Farage taking part and use his considerable oratory skills to take UKIP apart.

If he carries on until May 2015 he will be a lame duck Prime Minister, propped up by a party facing disaster.

However, victory on Thursday could and maybe should be enough for him to change course, call an election and ask people the ultimate question: "Do you really want Ed Miliband as PM?"

Scotland deserves better than these campaigners

WATCHING the #indyref campaign in recent weeks has made me frustrated and angry.

No not because there is a very real prospect the historic union could be broken but because no one, be it a politician or 'expert' is actually talking TO the people of Scotland.

Scots basically are being talked AT, 'oooo don't vote for independence because this  and that will happen and it's all your fault' say the No Thanks team.

'Ach, don't listen to em, you should vote for independence as it will be great and we can do this that and the other' say the Yes team.

At no point in this campaign has either side said to the Scottish people 'here is our case and here's why the opposition are wrong in our opinion.'

The Scots deserve that and to be trusted to go away, consider it all and then deliver their verdict next Thursday.

I will declare an interest to say as an Englishman I hope our Celtic cousins decide to stay, but the outcome is nothing to do with me or anyone else south of the border.

My opinion is that if we stay together we should work together to ensure Scotland and Wales and Northern Ireland too have much greater powers and can prosper both individually and together.

But should the Scottish people decide to vote yes then we have a duty in England to work with an independent Scotland.

To all the politicians and experts travelling north in the next week, don't waste your time delivering meaningless soundbites and 'warnings'.

Just talk to the people, Scots are the most welcoming and friendly people on the planet, show them some respect hey?

Scotland, everyone in England wants you to stay. We never have took your freedom and we won't do so now!

Carswell defection shows Tory troubles

DOUGLAS Carswell's defection to UKIP has highlighted the very real problem for David Cameron and the Conservatives.

The darling of the backbenches, Carswell has been a thorn in Cameron's side for a while now.

Peace seem to have broken out when Carswell appeared to back the PM over his pledge for an in/out referendum should the Tories win in 2015.

However, something has changed in Carswell's mind. Either he thinks the party won't win in 2015 so has decided to jump now or this is some sort of weird stalking horse effort.

If Carswell wins for UKIP in Clacton, it could pave the way for other Tories to follow suit and persuade more traditional Tories to abandon the party for UKIP.

You might expect the Tories to respond, remind voters Carswell appears to have reneged on his backing for the party.

Instead the attack dogs were sent out online to attack Ed Miliband for 'not saying anything about Rotherham'.

We'll ignore the fact the party has called for the PCC to step down, that senior council figure has already resigned with more expected to follow....

And that sums up the Tories, when there is discord within the party, they lash out at Miliband and Labour. Carswell didn't defect because of Miliband, he defected because of Cameron and Osborne.

The killer line in Carswell's interview on Sky was the use of the word 'honest' in relation to Miliband's position on the EU.

The implication being Cameron isn't and that, whether the Tories want to admit it or not, is the Tories biggest headache.

If Cameron doesn't 'get it', then I'm afraid his dreams of an EU referendum will turn to dust.

Clegg's 'axe to tax' comments are a cheap stunt

THE Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg wants his coalition partners to ditch the 'Bedroom Tax' otherwise he will scrap it in the 2015 Lib Dem manifesto.

That is despite his party voting for it every time it has come through the House of Commons.....

What has provoked this 'crisis of conscience' for the Deputy PM and his party, new DWP figures? A tale of woe from a constiuent or even politicians just admitting they are wrong.

Or is it the fact one opinion poll this week showed the Liberal Democrats on six per cent....that's SIX per cent.

From the heights of 2010 and 'I agree with Nick', the Liberal Democrats have fallen faster than Luis Suarez did into Chiellini's shoulder.

However, those of you hoping for the Liberal Democrats to stand up to the Conservatives and flex their muscles will be disappointed, this is nothing more than a cheap, vulgar and hypocritical stunt.

This is not the first time Clegg and his party have voiced their disproval, remember the Royal Mail?

Remember 'We stopped the Tories from introducing 16 'heartless' policies'?

Remember as well the Deputy Prime Minister was once heard telling the PM they had to stop agreeing as they would have nothing to disagree about in 2015.

Clegg knows the Liberal Democrats face the abyss in 2015, the protest votes have gone to UKIP, some have gone to the Greens or Labour, leaving them with not much to smile about.

He knows opposing it on the surface now and pledging to scrap it in the 2015 manifesto might tempt some voters back.

They shouldn't though and anyway the opposition have already pledged to scrap it should they be elected....

Truth be told if Nick Clegg is serious about wanting to scrap this he ought to threaten a confidence vote in

the House of Commons.

If the Lib Dems voted to scrap it along with Labour then there would be no confidence in the Government and potentially a snap election could be triggered.

Or interestingly, the Prime Minister, tired of the junior partners whinging could force a confidence vote himself.

Then the Liberal Democrats would be faced with a dilemma, vote to back it and probably lose the last of any credibility with the electorate, vote to scrap it and potentially face the electoral wilderness...

Mr Clegg, it's over to you!

PM in a muddle of his own making

IT'S not been the best week for the Prime Minister.

Following Andy Coulson being found guilty of conspiring to hack phones on Tuesday, the PM upset most of his European friends on Friday and heard how a former advisor had been sent to prison on child porn charges.

In a political world where all we hear is how bad Miliband is and how if he was doing better the Tories would be toast, I pose the opposite question, wouldn't the Tories be solid certainties for a majority in 2015 if Cameron was better at his job?

Think about it, the economy is slowing rousing itself from it's slumber, voters are warming to the PM's EU reform talk and the party is staying close to Labour in the polls.

Yet time after time Cameron is either guilty of or presides over cock ups which once again make you think about a change of owner of Number 10 in May 2015.

The Prime Minister of the UK should know a trial is not concluded until a verdict was given on all charges. Yet Cameron raced to get on TV on Tuesday to besmirch Coulson while a jury was still considering some of the charges.

Surely someone close to Cameron should have pulled him to one side and advised it was better to wait for all verdicts before he spoke out. To some it would have looked cowardly but in the long term it would have created an air of professionalism lacking in Downing Street in recent weeks.

And on the EU, Cameron is a hopeless diplomat, emboldened by his one triumph of getting the UK's contribution to the bloated organisation reduced, the PM tried a Thatcherite approach on Friday.

The difference is most of the EU leaders were scared stiff of Maggie, with Cameron they point and laugh and gently remind him he has to face his voters next year.

Truth be told the EU values our opinion about as much as I care for salad, Merkel and co will only listen if the PM returns to Brussels next June/July with a parliamentary majority and they no an in/out EU referendum is very much possible.

The PM thinks this tough talking on Europe wins votes, it does but only if you succeed. Failure's like yesterday only help Farage and UKIP hoover up more Tory votes.

Honestly, Cameron is a very good Prime Minister but when he loses next year it won't be because Labour won, it will be because he lost by making too many mistakes.

By May 2015, David Cameron might not only have lost the unlosable election of 2010 but he might lose his job to a gentleman not many people actually want to see in Number 10.

Labour won on Thursday, just not well enough

Reading the newspapers and watching the news since Thursday, you would have been forgiven for thinking UKIP had broken all kinds of political records and the Conservatives had made gain after gain.

I’m afraid the truth for the likes of the Murdoch media and those who resent Ed Miliband is Labour won, well in some areas but failed to really go big in others.

The analogy I draw is Labour scored a century on a flat batting wicket but were bowled for 102 when a double hundred could and should have been possible.

But the headlines since Friday morning are frankly bizarre, Labour’s ‘nightmare night’ (they gained 300+ seats) and UKIP’s ‘earthquake’ (gained 150 seats and NO councils).

Those pale in comparison to the analysis offered which says UKIP will deny Labour election victory and will ‘eat into Labour’s core vote’.

Early on Thursday evening, Sunderland was used as the example of how Labour’s core vote was drifting to UKIP. That’s an area where, when all was said and done, Labour recorded 47 per cent of the vote….

The TRUTH is the UKIP threat is very real, very evident but it will impact on Labour AND the Conservatives.

Take a look at Essex on Thursday and Friday, many seats where David Cameron normally doesn’t need to worry about the Tory vote.

By 9am on Friday, Basildon’s Conservative leader had gone claiming his Prime Minister ‘didn’t get it’.

Both Labour and Conservatives need more seats to form a Government next year, but if there core vote is being taken by UKIP, a hung parliament again should be a very real possibility.

That’s why Labour’s performance should not be dismissed, the party gained councils in Croydon, Crawley, Redbridge and Cambridge and virtually wiped out any opposition in Islington and Manchester.

Yes not enough to win power, but a clear sign the party is recovering votes, look at the areas where Labour topped the poll, if this translates next year then Ed Miliband is Prime Minister.

The biggest anomaly at the moment is how will UKIP do next year, all the statistics suggest a good local and Euro performance is usually watered down come General Election.

Britain entered the unknown in 2010, no opinion poll can tell you the result of 2015, but one thing is sure, it’s better to be winning and topping the poll than struggling in second….

Newark – Farage’s great gamble?

Will he or won’t he? Will Nigel Farage stand and win the safe Conservative seat of Newark, give David Cameron a massive headache and rock British politics.

Or will he stand, lose and next year we will go back to talk about Labour, Conservative and the Liberal Democrats.

That’s the dilemma facing the UKIP leader tonight, stand and win and he grabs a paintbrush and to paint a new political picture from the UK.

Lose and we might all go, ‘well they aren’t up to much are they?’ – a huge bodyblow less than 12 months from the General Election.

Or to borrow from Blair, is there a third way? Could the party have Diane James line up for the seat, fresh from a very good performance in Eastleigh?

She is an incredibly articulate woman, a plain speaker and, unlike some, does not have any faux pas to hush up.

Farage could then take to the airwaves, explain he wants to focus on UKIP’s Euro election campaign and doesn’t want to be ‘part-time candidate’ and ‘the people of Newark deserve more’.

Unlike Eastleigh, Newark is safe Tory country giving UKIP a clear run at the Conservative vote, Farage can take the temperature of things are going because if she loses, well it was a 16,000 seat majority….

If she wins, Cameron gets a bloody nose and, allied to predicted poor Euro results, the Prime Minister could find himself distracted in the weeks ahead.

And wouldn’t Farage fancy a seat in the Home Counties anyway and the glory of beating the Conservatives on General Election night itself?

Fault on all sides in Plebgate row

So the officer who said he heard Andrew Mitchell MP call a police man a pleb now admits he didn't and made it all up.

The end? Nope, other officers are facing hearings and one indeed is actually suing Mr Mitchell for libel.

The whole episode is a mess and listening to Newsnight last night you would think the whole blame lied with the police.

Wrong, every side involved with this needs to take a long hard look at themselves and consider whether they could have handled the matter better.

The police will need to investigate what happened, why and look at ways to avoid these damaging set of stories every appearing again.

I don't know what sparked what happened, would not like to guess either given legal cases and investigations are ongoing but something occured that night in Downing Street of which we have no doubt.

Mr Mitchell should look at himself as well, no doubt he should fight his corner but let justice do the talking not press conferences with his friends and friendly MPs going on Newsnight to 'fight his corner' ie besmirch every police officer.

And the Prime Minister really ought to think before he next speaks on this matter. His condemnation of the police officer was fair enough but Mr Cameron must remember he removed Mr Mitchell from his role as chief whip.....

The time has come to try and draw a line under the whole sorry episode and for the Prime Minister to seize the moral high ground, seek a meeting with Metropolitan Police chief Bernard Hogan-Howe.

Show leadership and support for Mr Mitchell Prime Minister and show both parties can move past what has been a sorry affair.

The Tories aren't just playing on Miliband's pitch, they are playing his game

George Osborne has been warning Tories 'not to play on Miliband's pitch' when it comes to the living standards battle being fought by Labour at the moment.

 

Yet his comments talking about how the Government 'needs to step in to create the rules of the market' sounds remarkably like Ed Miliband's conference speech.

 

Remember that? the speech labelled 'marxist', 'left wing' and something which would 'drag Britain back to the 1970s' according to the Prime Minister and his Chancellor.

 

Since then, the Tories have not only been forced on to the pitch but now are playing Labour's game.

 

The energy price freeze? A 'con' according to the Tories, but something they now have to find an answer to.

 

Now they are tackling pay day lenders like Wonga, finally listening to Labour MPs like Stella Creasy.

 

The masked even slipped from Jeremy Hunt on Question Time last Thursday when he said they were clearing up the mess left by the 'banking crisis' in 2008.

 

Funny, I thought they were clearing up Labour's mess.....

 

Miliband is being clever, some of the conference speech may well have been froth and bubble but most of it has resonated.

 

It's a source of anger to the Tories that people are listening to the opposition again when the economy is improving and people are not focusing on that.

 

Logically, Labour should be sinking now, a leader who isn't exactly battering Cameron as Blair did Major and with only a small amount of policy on the board with a Shadow Chancellor who will

forever be linked to the last Labour Government.

 

None of that will change between now and 2015 as Miliband simply cannot swing for the fence as hard as Blair did.

 

But Cameron is getting increasingly hamstrung by events, I have noticed in recent weeks the Conservative supporting papers are beginning to get very hostile, a reaction to Cameron waiving

through the Royal Charter on press regulation?

 

His appointment of Lynton Crosby could prove to be a mistake, the British people want a sense of fair play in their politics, if the Government get dirty then many may vote Labour in protest.

 

And the UKIP factor - I have previously called them the UK's Tea Party and the 'Farage Factor' is clear. Cameron is cutting the green 'crap' out of his Conservative Party and talking a lot about immigration and the EU, to tempt UKIP voters back.

 

Has the boat sailed though? I suspect for many 'older' Tory voters it has, many will vote for UKIP quite simply because its the Conservative Party they knew in the 80s.

 

And should Cameron waive through HS2, the line will go through the fields and back gardens of his core home counties vote, enough for many to vote UKIP I suspect.

 

Hope? Hell yes, despite Nick Harvey suggesting 2015 is already decided, Cameron could yet pull off victory if the economy gets better, inflation comes down and more money is in our pockets.

 

However he needs party unity, a warmer press than he is getting at the moment and to get off Miliband's pitch.

 

The Autumn Statement is a good chance to unveil a whole new ball game for Labour to match.....

Cameron should attack UKIP, the UK Tea Party

'We want our country back' boomed Nigel Farage at UKIPs annual conference.

Aside from the obvious falsehood that the country has not gone anywhere, it nevertheless remains a statement of intent.

Farage is shrewd, canny and clever and talks about taking votes from all parties. The truth is he wants to do to the Conservative Party what the Tea Party did to the Republican Party in the United States, suck them dry and become a real voice on the right of British politics.

The Tea Party lured so many 'traditional' Republican voters that the GOP has picked extremely right wing candidates in last two Presidential races in a bid to secure the Tea Party votes.

Not brilliant when they are up against a mixed race president who shattered many social stigmas when he won the presidency.

The result is a Republican party which eschews candidates like Chris Christie and promotes the likes of Romney, Perry and Herman Cain.

It’s an influence which is now keenly felt on Capitol Hill and UKIP would love to recreate that at Westminster.

A pact is about likely as snow in the Mojave Desert - Farage doesn’t like Cameron’s brand of Conservatism and Cameron doesn’t like Farage and UKIP period.

So 2015 there will be a choice for Conservative leaning voters – the Tories or UKIP. Do they abandon a Conservative Party they don’t like under Cameron and install a Labour Prime Minister or back Cameron and risk being alienated even further.

And that’s why I think Cameron was understated at his party conference this week, safe and steady speech stressing the need for a safe and steady hand on the economy.

Interestingly there was a strong focus on backing big business by attacking Labour’s plans to halt the Corporation Tax and an admission about the furore over gay marriage – a gentle prod back at UKIP.

The Prime Minister may have looked down the camera and not in the hall but I think it was a speech designed to speak to lifelong Tory voters.

If Cameron can persuade them he embodies many classic Tory values as well as those of 21^st century Britain he may see off the UKIP threat.

If he can’t then he may go down in history as the Conservative PM who failed to win what many considered an easy election in 2010 and then lost because of a party with no MPs at Westminster currently.

Mail's attack on Miliband's father shows how low we have sunk

The piece on Ralph Miliband in Saturday's Mail has proven just how low we as a country have sunk.

Not wanting to debate his policies, fact check his claims and lay out how much they would cost the country if elected, Paul Dacre has gone for the lowest of blows and smeared a dead man.

Ralph Miliband died in 1994, seven years before Ed Miliband became part of Tony Blair's Government and almost a decade before Ed was elected as an MP.

Yet now is the time to declare Ralph 'hated' Britain. We'll ignore he escaped to this country away from Hitler's persecution of the Jews, we'll also ignore Ralph actually fought for his country against the evils of Nazism.

But because he was a thinker, because he believed in a different way, because he did not like the Britain he was a part of, he was this evil being?

No, he wanted better for his country, wanted better for his children, something we all want on a daily basis and have the right at the ballot box.

The Mail justify it by saying Miliband speaks highly of his father, who wouldn't? His father braved the Nazi's twice, once to escape for a better life and secondly to stop Hitler inflciting the Nazism on the rest of the world!

But to suggest a plot, a conspiracy is lunacy, when Ralph died in 1994, both Miliband brothers had not even been thought of as MPs!

What sickens and saddens me more is the lack of outrage from a number of people on the right, Boris Johnson and Prime Minister David Cameron have backed Ed's right to defend his father but not condemned the Mail for its actions.

No surprise given the Mail's predominately Tory readership but this is not how we do politics, sullying the dead who cannot respond.

Sometimes it's cringy but I do not mind seeing politicians talk about their upbringing, you could see the love between David Cameron and his father on the campaign trail in 2010.

We cannot deny our parentage, we are made from the union of one man and one woman, nor should we.

But there is a line which should be crossed, attacks on the dead with the aim of suppressing the work of the child is not the act of a decent society.

It's also rather hypocritical of the Mail given their attacks on groups of people who, wrongly, 'celebrated' the death of Margaret Thatcher.

As a journalist, I vehemently oppose the introduction of the Royal Charter, but if it's introduced, after this then I would not be surprised.

Shame on you Dacre, Shame on you Daily Mail

Time to freeze the Tories out now Ed

I GOT it, three years after he was elected, I now know Labour made the right choice and picked the right Miliband.

What Brighton and the country saw today wasn’t socialism, a return to the 70s, a union manifesto, the same old Labour (some of the Conservative criticisms I spotted) but common sense.

Why can’t the big six energy companies, whose profits are in the billions, take a price freeze for 20 months to ease the burden on home-owners.

Why can’t we build houses? Why can’t young people aged 16 help decide on the nation’s Government? Why should un-used land remain un-used land?

Commentators have said there was no mention of Clegg and the Liberal Democrats and they are right, but Miliband nicked their fairness theme good and proper!

Let’s make this energy freeze clear, it’s a freeze from May 2015 until December 31 2016, what happens after that god only knows but Miliband didn’t stand there and promise prizes would be fixed forever.

It’s about putting money in people’s pocket and could be nothing more than an election bribe, Conservatives will do everything to get you on a cheap tariff, Labour will ensure you pay that tariff for a fixed period.

On voting, politicians talk every day about engaging young people in politics, Miliband has suggested actually doing something about it.

On forcing people to give up land they own for development, well look at the derelict buildings in your town, ask yourself, could something be done with it?

The Conservatives have introduced a mortgage scheme making it easier to buy a home, Labour suggest building new homes and getting the UKs flagging construction industry moving.

There is some flesh on those bones now, it’s a good start and certainly the mention of ‘My Government’ was sporadic and far from presumptious.

And the macho cabal...I mean challenges to the Prime Minister were clever, Mr Cameron now either has to answer back and risk being accused of having nothing to say re policies or risk saying nothing and being accused of backing away.

Labour have cleverly took away a lot of attack weapons from the Prime Minister and Chancellor George Osborne this week and created an impression they could form the next Government.

But, having made the weather, Miliband and his team must ensure they make it rain on the Prime Minister every day from now until May 6, 2015 – the date of the next General Election.

If they don’t then Ed may have to grab an umbrella himself and prepare for a deluge....

Ashcroft poll highlights PM's problem

POLITICAL sage Lord Ashcroft has delivered another piece of enthralling research, this time on 40 key marginals across the UK.

A total of 32 seats are narrowly held by the Conservatives over Labour, eight by them over coalition partners the Liberal Democrats.

The good news for Mr Cameron is that the Tories will hold those eight seats from their Liberal Democrat partners.

The bad is Labour would take the 32 seats AND a further 66 should the party notch up the 8.5 per cent swing Ashcroft has found in these marginals, enough to put Ed Miliband in Downing Street with no need for deals...

But this is no 1997 landslide in the making, more chronically worrying for Mr Cameron is Labour is so strong in these marginals because the Conservative vote has jumped ship to UKIP with Lord Ashcroft recording a rise in eight points since in the Farage vote since 2010.

In my professional life (professional? me? lol) I saw first hand the UKIP threat covering the local elections in Worcestershire in May. While UKIP did not win a seat in my patch they reduced some pretty hefty Tory majorities almost to dust.

They even kicked Tory councillors out in some parts of the county and there's the rub for the Conservatives. Accept UKIP is a problem for predominatly them to handle, they may yet win in 2015, deny it and they lose.

While Ed Miliband floats along, the Prime Minister would do well to turn the attack away from Labour and on to UKIP to try and tempt his waivering voters back. Strong leadership, real signs the economy is back off its sick bed and a concentration on core Conservative values would help.

A business focused PM, one that looked after the pennies and made people feel wealthier again and Labour are quite possibly knackered.

While I applaud the PM for his gay marriage legislation, that was a second term issue and something rushed into, a charge you can level at Mr Cameron rather a lot since 2010.

And the truth is, he really ought to tell the backbenchers to simply put up or shut up, Major did it with Redwood in 95 and was thrashed in 1997 but Miliband is not proving to be Tony Blair, at the moment.

David Cameron is already the Conservative Prime Minister who lost the unloseable election, will he be the Conservative PM who lost the country to Labour thanks to UKIP?