No Deal will be a failure of state, not of the voters

GIVEN how often the story changes this blog could date very quickly. However much of what you will read here I am afraid is true and a sad indictment on both sides of this mess.

If it comes to pass then a ‘No Deal’ Brexit is not the fault of me or 16 odd million remain voters nor the ‘mainstream media’, no Emmanuel Macron or Angela Merkel. It’s a failure of statecraft on both sides of the table.

Having called a referendum, former Prime Minister David Cameron should have instructed the Cabinet Secretary to prepare a briefing paper to outline just what a departure from the EU would actually involve. It may never have seen the light of day but would have hugely informed our clueless political class.

Instead he walked away the next morning in a ‘not my fault, guv’ sort of way, sulking that a majority of voters hadn’t listened to a Prime Minister with a thin majority.

His replacement walked into Downing Street and there on the cabinet table was a blank sheet of paper just with Brexit scrawled at the top.

At no point since June 23 has any Prime Minister defined just what Brexit meant. Hard-working voters on all sides were just told ‘Brexit means Brexit and we’re going to make the best of it’. A more vacuous statement you’ll struggle to find…

The lack of a defined vision has poured into the negotiations, the British side saying here’s what we want and you’ll jolly well agree and the EU pointing out that we can’t keep the benefits if we want to leave the club.

A well-briefed Government would have seen many of the red flags as far back as 2016 – on Northern Ireland, on fishing, on borders, trade etc.

Three and a half years to be proactive and cut through the tape ourselves rather than wait to be handed the scissors.

It would have also allowed room for realpolitik where the Government could have made some bold offers to the European Union and moved the emphasis on Brussels to compromise.

Instead we argued among ourselves, wasted hundreds of hours in Parliament and still to this day think we hold all the cards, we hold none.

Under the current incumbent of Number 10, the Government’s policy seems to be bluster, bullshit and braggadocio – any failure will solely down to the EU and not poor old Boris.

It won’t, there will be no winners from No Deal. 

That includes in the European Union, while it’s perfectly understandable they have stuck firm to the principles of the constitution for member states there is a real stubbornness emerging in recent days.

Barnier et al appear to have a developed a weird form of Stockholm Syndrome where they appear to identify with their captors. He and the bloc do not appear to understand that in leaving Britain has no interest in protecting the member states, it doesn’t have to.

Access is sought to our waters to fish in the same breath as we are being told we cannot access EU member benefits.

Dangerously it also appears Brussels doesn’t think the UK will ever pull the pin on ‘No Deal’ – while the last few years appears to back that judgement it’s a frightening assumption to have.

No side wants to ‘give in’ out of sheer selfish greed. Our Government doesn’t want to concede ground for fear of Farage but is cautious of the impact of leaving without a deal in this Covid climate.

The EU has a deep fear the British will make a success of things and set the bar accordingly to try and ensure that didn’t happen. Success in London could spark itchy feet in Rome, Madrid and Athens. But it also knows Britain on its doorstep would be a welcome trade partner for millions of businesses across the bloc.

Whatever your opinion I do urge you to listen to the excellent Ros Atkins here https://twitter.com/i/status/1336793564165124096 who explains just why sealing the deal is proving somewhat of a challenge.

The Red Wall has crumbled, now the Tories want to smash it altogether

LABOUR suffered its worst defeat since 1935 on Thursday evening as clear blue water rushed through the red wall, drowning much of what was in its path.

Though the majority wasn’t as much as Tony Blair’s 22 years ago, the early hours of Friday morning felt like Labour’s 1997 landslide as the Tories picked up seat after historic seat.

Blyth Valley – Labour since 1950, Workington – Labour since 1918 apart from three years in the 70s, Rother Valley – Labour for 101 years unbroken, were just three of Labour’s ‘safe’ seats which fell to the Conservatives.

Look beyond the Tory gains and the picture is even more frightening for Labour in its heartlands.

Mike Hill retained his Hartlepool seat for Labour despite losing more than 6,500 votes and has a much-reduced majority of 3,595.

The Brexit Party’s Richard Tice polled more than 10,000 votes, had he stood aside then its fair to say Hartlepool would have gone blue too.

Ed Miliband was returned in Doncaster North by 2,370 votes from the Conservatives – the Brexit Party picked up more than 8,000 votes….

If Labour doesn’t act swiftly and recognise what happened to the party then the ‘red wall’ may well be no more come 2024, the next scheduled General Election.

While shamefully avoiding scrutiny, retaining questionable morals and having the capacity to offend every time he opens his mouth, Boris Johnson delivered an early Christmas present for his party with a remarkable result.

It’s perhaps no surprise the bluster was toned down on Friday afternoon, gone was ‘getting Brexit done’ and more of the pathetic verbal jabs at people who dared not share his view.

Instead there was talk of healing, coming together and the first salvo in what looks a move to the centre ground of British politics.

Becoming a ‘servant of the people’ as he said on Saturday is a very Blair-like comment but northerners want action not words. What they gave on Thursday they won’t think twice about taking away.

Deliver and Johnson can name his own departure date as Prime Minister because unless Labour grab the bull by the horns they will remain out of power.

It’s been nine years since the party was asked to leave Downing Street, nine more and it will equal the 18 years of exile only ended by Blair’s landslide in ‘97.

Jeremy Corbyn has faced two Conservative leaders in less than three years at the polls and lost both times.

But in an apparent sign of things to come, will he depart immediately? No he wishes for a period of reflection.

There is nothing to reflect on, the voters rejected the idea of him as Prime Minister, nothing he can say or do will now change that.

Labour’s manifesto was worthy at its heart, a fairer society is something we should all pursue every day, doing away with the need for foodbanks also.

But refusing to say whether you would authorise the use of Trident to defend our nation against an albeit hypothetical threat, wanting another Brexit referendum when the result of the first hadn’t been enacted and creating an image the wealth creators in this country were somehow immoral is not the action of a future leader.

I’ve met Mr Corbyn three times since he became leader, he’s a decent, honourable man of principle who believes in what he says – nothing he says is because a focus group said it would be idea!

The party needs him to act quickly, stand down and appoint an interim leader. Failure to do so will only accentuate the damage caused on Thursday night.

Labour is at the crossroads, the party which won power for 13 years under a leader many of its members actively despise, now faces a critical decision.

Appoint a continuity Corbyn candidate and the party could face oblivion in 2024 should the PM indeed move into the centre ground.

Understand how and why this landslide happened, why former mining towns so betrayed by Thatcher were willing to reject the party and vote Conservative and redemption could be possible.

A former leader once stressed the need to go ‘forward not back’. As much as it might hurt, its advice Labour ought to take.

Otherwise it may only appeal to the few, not the many. Sorry Jeremy

Goodbye to the Crying Lady

FAREWELL then to quite simply the worst Prime Minister in recent history. The crying lady’s body language wasn’t one of sadness but of bitterness she’d been evicted.

History will not judge Theresa May kindly, she was crowned as someone who ‘got the job done’, the vicars daughter who would reach out to those ‘just about managing’ and heal a country riven by austerity.

Instead she presided over the worst General Election campaign from a sitting Prime Minister, failed to marginalise the most ideologically-driven Labour leader since Michael Foot and deepened the divisions caused by Brexit.

And when confronted by her unpopularity, when the political winds demanded a change of course or an acknowledgement she could be wrong, she buried her head in the sand.

Politicians of all colours need a keen eye and ear to work inside and outside of the Westminster bubble, she possessed neither.

She called an unnecessary General Election in 2017. Jeremy Corbyn will never appeal to the centre ground of British politics enough to unseat a Conservative Government outright.

She began the campaign 20 points ahead in the opinion polls, yet ended with a loss of a majority which took the Tories more than 20 years to achieve.

During the campaign she was robotic, charmless and frankly boring. Corbyn meanwhile energised the youth, inspired his supporters and displayed his talents at rallies up and down the country.

When the Tory manifesto was scrutinised, instead of laying out the reasons for change, May backtracked insisting ‘nothing has changed’. A Prime Minister who offers the exotic tutti fruiti before racing back to plain vanilla is not someone who has leadership licked.

Confronted with the loss of her majority, May could and should have quit. Instead she sought a deal with the DUP, nothing wrong with that of course except it came with £1billion of cash for Northern Ireland.

The voters were rightly annoyed to see the Magic Money Tree sprout having been told ‘there’s no money left’ for seven years….

Faced with delivering Brexit, the biggest cultural shift our country has demanded in five decades, Mrs May displayed a tin ear of epic proportions.

The result was separated by just 1,269,501 votes. A majority yes but not anything like the 10 per cent difference showed by the Scottish people after their independence referendum.

Delivering the voters mandate therefore required political skill and courage, she lacked both.

Successful British Prime Ministers govern for all, not just those who elected them. Yet when she needed to carry her country with her, Mrs May marginalised everyone who voted remain.

In countless speeches she referred to delivering the wishes of the 17.4million who voted for Brexit. Had she delivered a Brexit for the 65million in this country, including all of Scotland which voted to remain, I dare say she wouldn’t be in this mess today.

We’re screaming out for leadership to carry us all forward as a country, to bring us back together. Because the British people didn’t do anything wrong, they were asked their opinion and gave it, no matter what side of the argument you are on that can never be a bad thing.

When her deal was published, it was rightly panned. It was a compromise she said, yet that wasn’t the binary choice on the ballot paper on June 23, 2016.

Faced with resignations, Mrs May acted tough, ‘My Deal or No Brexit’ she attempted to roar. Leaders can do that when they have the numbers to back the threat up with.

She never did, she presided over two of the biggest Parliamentary defeats in our history as her own party and her DUP partners baulked at backing the withdrawal agreement.

When she sought help from Corbyn, she expected Her Majesty’s official opposition to ride to the rescue in the ‘national interest’.

She didn’t for once think a) her party might be a tad annoyed at her legitimising a man they’ve deemed a threat to national security and b) Corbyn would go along with the talks but stop short of helping.

Labour doesn’t need to help her, Politics 101 tells you when the opponent is sinking never chuck a life raft.

She’s been doomed since a third of her MPs said they had no confidence in her in December, had they waited until the spring the number would have been much higher.

The simple truth is had the men in grey suits acted quicker, had the opposition been much stronger, her time as PM would already be over.

Britain deserves better than this. The question is can anyone out there rise to the challenge?

No cover up over Whittingdale, he just needs a better taste in wome

SO John Whittingdale has a relationship with a 'dominatrix', the press become aware of the story and had an 'obligation' to report it according to critics.

But they didn't because Whittingdale as Culture Secretary will be the ultimate arbiter over press freedom in this country and now is 'compromised'.

Now I have only worked in local journalism and maybe have a positive view of my profession but sorry, this is not a 'row', it's barely even news.

The key point is Whittingdale is a single man and began and ended the relationship before he became Culture Secretary.

If the press had reported it, Whittingdale could rightfully have claimed an invasion of privacy because as a single man he can do whatever he likes within the law.

Plus the story would have been basically 'single man meets woman on dating website who isn't all she's cracked up to be' – not something which will sell newspapers!

The only point at which it could have been in the public interest is if he had been cheating on his wife/partner, I suspect most editors tossed the story to one side because it's not really news.

If we open the door to reporting on the actions of single men and women in all walks of life then where will it end?

Whittingdale admitted the relationship in a statement and expressed his embarrassment, he's not compromised over regulating the press because he confirmed the relationship himself!

Yes, he'll probably face awkward moments with the editors' of our newspapers for a while and maybe his credibility is damaged but a sense of perspective here is vital.

Whittingdale is entitled to date in private, unless his partner wishes to go public as Justine Miliband did when Ed Miliband was Labour leader.

But maybe have a better choice in women eh John?

Tories will regret stepping back in time

"We're leaving Downing Street for the last time," no not the late Baroness Thatcher but the words David Cameron will be using following a leadership coup despite his successful EU referendum campaign.

A prediction yes, but the odds on this happening should be shorter than Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

Just like Thatcher the storm clouds are circling round the Prime Minister. Despite being a majority winning Tory leader and despite winning reforms in the EU once again it seems the Tories want to throw it all down the toilet over Europe.

The comparisons are endless, a majority winning Tory premier, a Labour opposition not really bidding for power under a polarising leader, an uncertain economy. We may as well be back in 1990!

One wonders who will stick the final knife in aka the late Geoffrey Howe. Perhaps / sharp stiletto from Theresa May?

The Out brigade spent the weekend whining that Dave should stop being so nasty and hurtful about them. This despite the Prime Minister actively allowing members of his own cabinet to campaign for an 'out' vote....

They didn't seek to dismiss stories of a leadership challenge though? Why? Because figures like Boris Johnson know this campaign will be enough to bring down Cameron and start afresh with a more 'Conservative' leader.

The Outers have a back up in plan just in case they lose the referendum. They will oust Cameron instead as punishment , why else would Boris tell the world he wants out but what a marvellous job the PM did in Brussels?

If he really wanted out he would surely be at the forefront of the campaign for Britain to leave the EU? Not to one side letting messers Farage and Galloway hog centre stage.

Either way Cameron's time as PM can now be measured in months not years, his only hope is the Tory grassroots find the tactics of Johnson et al unpalatable and Boris's hopes end up crushed under a London bendy bus.

Allowing the stage to clear for a new face someone who wanted out but stayed loyal to the Prime Minister. And who is a proud Thatcherite....Prime Minister Sajid Javid anyone? 

PM won't serve a third term...he's got to win a second first!

A PUZZLING annoucement from the Prime Minister during an 'at home' interview with the BBC, he won't serve a third term at Number 10...

Puzzling because of it's timing, why on earth would you on the verge of the election campaign proper say you only want the job for one more term then you'll be off?

Puzzling because recent history shows PMs who set out their future plans tend to limp along until the end, see Tony Blair after he said in 2004 he wouldn't serve a full third term. He then faced mutiny and uncertainty regularly until he eventually departed in 2007.

Puzzling because the Conservatives love a good old bunfight over the leadership, a vote for the Tories in May will gurantee lots of jostling for position and in-fighting, particularly as Cameron named his chosen three; May, Osborne and Boris. Wonder what Sajid Javid and the other 'rising stars' think about his comments.

And puzzling because technically, the PM hasn't won an election yet, either in 2010 or the upcoming poll. His comments, however well intentioned, could be percieved as arrogance from a man who didn't win a majority in 2010.

Put simply the Conservatives are shooting themselves in the foot at every turn, every good sound bite and economic news they have is undone by strategic mistakes.

The Tories ought to be doing better, Labour are led by a man who simply hasn't sealed the deal with his core Labour vote let alone floating voters, the Lib Dems are near enough finished while the UKIP pint has been watered down in recent weeks.

It's as if the Tories don't understand that to obtain a majority Government they need to do better than 2010, a very hard challenge granted but the circumstances are there.

Cameron should have embarked on his 2010 'meet the people' strategy and debated Miliband head to head. Not doing so has render his 'weak' tag on Miliband virutally redundant.

Labour's task now is to weave a narrative which once again labels Cameron arrogant, point out he failed to win a majority in 2010 and question again why he won't debate his record.

If they are successful then Cameron will indeed not serve a third term, he won't get a second either!

General Election TV Debates – The Solution

This is less of a blog, more of an open letter to all the party leaders and to the broadcasters, a solution to your current ‘dilemma’ over the proposed debates.

STRUCTURE – one debate between David Cameron and Ed Miliband and one between Cameron, Miliband and Clegg. Instead of inviting just Farage to the last one, invite him, Natalie Bennett from the Greens and George Galloway from Respect. It’s not beyond podium builders to come up with seven platforms you know!

Every party which is represented in Westminster and could feasibly field candidates in every constituency across the UK would then have a platform.

SCOTLAND, WALES AND NI – For a party very keen to distance itself from the ‘Westminster elite’, the SNP has spent a lot of time demanding to be in the debates. Why? People in England cannot vote for them. Same with Plaid Cymru and the various Northern Ireland parties, should they have a platform? No.

Instead, why not have country specific debates. I mean wasn’t the whole point of the Scottish devolution vote to ensure the Scottish voice was heard. Why not have a debate between the SNP, Scottish Labour, Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Liberal Democrats? Sky ran one the last time and it proved very successful.

Surely the voters in those countries want to know what the various parties are going to do for the country if returned to Westminster? It’s not about exclusion it’s about issues that matter to those in the respective countries are addressed.

AND IF THEY DON’T AGREE – empty chair them, this applies to the PM if he is indeed ‘chicken’ but also call Miliband’s bluff as well. Quite simply if an invited guest doesn’t turn up, leave the podium empty and let the British public draw their own conclusions.

Simple? Yeah pretty much, so is there any chance you lot can get on and sort it out because frankly there are one or two hugely more important issues affecting us at the moment!

Thornberry isn't a snob, she's just stupid

"It's just one of many pictures I've taken on the campaign trail today. However if you're asking my personal opinion I like to think it shows the proud patriotism which exists in our country and what we shouldn't be afraid to embrace."

IF Emily Thornberry had said the above then tonight; she'd still have a job, the headlines would be about another Tory winning a seat for UKIP having defected and maybe some wavering Labour votes would have felt like their party did understand them after all.

Instead she came out with a stupid 'never seen anything like it' (what a flag?) comment, Ed apparently had a fit of pique and Labour look like a mess....again!

I'm not saying I'd do a better job than Labour's press office but my line is a huge improvement on the shambles which has dominated the airwaves all evening.

Truth be told this is just the latest chapter in a catastrophe of errors from a party which ought to be wiping the floor with the Government.

Cast your minds back, if this was 1996 Labour might be contemplating winning a seat like Rochester and Strood but would certainly be heaping pressure on a PM facing losing another by election to a defecting former MP.

David Cameron ought to have gone to be d this evening petrified at another potentially huge defeat and concerned some disgruntled colleagues might decide a change of leader was necessary.

Instead he lays his head thanking Labour for turning down the heat in the political pressure cooker.

To messers Johnson, Burnham, Cooper, Umunna et al - really? Do you really think this is the best your party can do?

Labour's slim chance of a majority has been shrinking for months. Tonight it disappeared, most probably for good.

Miliband wasn't inspiring, but he was clever

THE COMMENTARIART has spoken, Miliband was dull, boring and did not look like a Prime Minister in waiting.

They are right in the sense it was dull and boring as a whole but Prime Ministerial? Yes I think so, quiet and unassuming but with more gravitas than the previous 'Quiet Man' Iain Duncan Smith.

What they fail to appreciate is how the speech came across on the news channels, who need soundbites not great long diatribes.

On that Miliband scored big in my opinion, the line about Cameron not lying awake worried about the UK but about UKIP will have hurt and resonated with many voters.

And on Europe, Miliband's attack lines on Cameron would not only resonate with voters but with the Carswell section of the Conservatives who don't believe the Prime Minister is serious about reforming the 

European Union.

He was silly forgetting the deficit and immigration lines from the speech, his memory capacity is admirable but an Autocue is sometimes your best friend.

But those issues are front and centre of UK's voters minds so Miliband will have to talk about it between now and polling day.

Where Miliband was clever was in the use of the NHS, any Labour leader knows if they stroke the NHS, 

the members purr and the Tories cower.

The Mansion Tax - tobacco tax – hedge fund tax policy is economically sound and would provide a great big cash cow for the National Health Service.

As long as the party continues to press ahead with it, that alone should ensure Labour's core vote will at least have to think very hard before crossing to UKIP.

And it's a clever policy, it dares the Conservatives to oppose it knowing full well should they oppose they will be painted as the party of the rich and privileged and not caring about the NHS.

Thanks to the gift that keeps giving that is Grant Shapps, Labour are already ahead as the Conservatives released a poster saying Labour wanted to tax 'your family home'.....I I'd missed all those mansions in inner 

city London and Birmingham!

The criticism of the commentariart surprises me, we need to stop judging the parties on their conferences, a 

social gathering for four days.

I will be judging Cameron, Miliband and Clegg when the Prime Minister dissolves parliament for the election.

Only then should we assess those in the running for the biggest job in the country.

Scotland's vote is last act of a dying Government

THURSDAY will see a nation go to the polls faced with the biggest question asked of an electorate for many a year: Do they wish to break a 300 year old marriage and go it alone?.

There is no doubt the referendum on Scottish independence has been a good thing, it has energised people and got a nation talking about politics and voting.

But whatever the result, this week marks the beginning of the end of David Cameron's time as Prime Minister. Quite simply, the leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party could oversee the end of the union, that's a mistake I doubt even he can come back from.

Perhaps reports of his demise in the aftermath of a Yes vote are a little far-fetched, I doubt the British economy would sustain the news of Scottish independence and the resignation of a Prime Minister within 48 hours of each other!

But it would signal Cameron's time at the top was nearly over, the vultures are circling with Boris looking a shoo-in in Uxbridge and most of the cabinet are Osborne loyalists - leaving the PM with very few friends at the top.

Even Uncle Rupert appears lukewarm in backing the Tories with his hints that independence could be good for Scotland, knowing full well the damage a yes would cause to the Conservative Prime Minister.

David Cameron will become the first PM in history to lose not because the opposition was much more electable (Labour aren't) but because he's just made too many tactical errors.

1) He hasn't managed the coalition well.

Cameron needed Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats in 2010 but what he needed to do from the outset was make it clear, they contributed just 1/6th of the coalition Government and policy would be Conservative-driven.

Instead he has been in thrall to Clegg and let the junior partners get away with a number of statements such as their apparent u-turn on the Bedroom Tax. Instead of putting them on the spot and telling them to vote with their feet, knowing it would send them off the political cliff, he's allowed the Lib Dems the airwaves to try and rewrite history.

2) But ignored his party...

It's no co-incidence his party aren't happy. Conservative backbenchers wanted Tory rule after 13 years away, instead they got a Tory Government watered down with a bit of Lib Dem.

Many want to see him rule properly, but within 12 months the old rivalries spilled out and open rebellion ensured.

3) He shouldn't have introduced fixed term Parliaments

Fixed five year parliament has not worked, the party has begun it's last year of the current cycle with very little ideas, very little enthusiasm and with a reshuffle based on image not talent. Government's in this country only go into the fifth year in a desperate attempt to roll the dice and hope their fortunes change, look at Major in 92 and Brown in 2010.

Rather than five year fixed term, make it compulsory to hold an election every four years. The fortunes of the ruling party do rather improve at the end of four year cycles.

4) He ignored and then didn't grasp the UKIP threat

'Fruitcakes' and 'Loons' were the words used by the Prime Minister to describe Nigel Farage and UKIP....oh how he must regret that now.

Quite simply the PM and his party didn't recognise UKIP began hoovering up traditional Tory votes a long time ago. Farage represents the halcyon days of the Conservatives, big on business, tough on Europe and traditional British values.

He dismissed them until it was too late, now many have gone and won't come back but still Cameron and his team still disrespect UKIP. Cameron should get on the front foot, agree to the debates and agree to Farage taking part and use his considerable oratory skills to take UKIP apart.

If he carries on until May 2015 he will be a lame duck Prime Minister, propped up by a party facing disaster.

However, victory on Thursday could and maybe should be enough for him to change course, call an election and ask people the ultimate question: "Do you really want Ed Miliband as PM?"

Clegg's 'axe to tax' comments are a cheap stunt

THE Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg wants his coalition partners to ditch the 'Bedroom Tax' otherwise he will scrap it in the 2015 Lib Dem manifesto.

That is despite his party voting for it every time it has come through the House of Commons.....

What has provoked this 'crisis of conscience' for the Deputy PM and his party, new DWP figures? A tale of woe from a constiuent or even politicians just admitting they are wrong.

Or is it the fact one opinion poll this week showed the Liberal Democrats on six per cent....that's SIX per cent.

From the heights of 2010 and 'I agree with Nick', the Liberal Democrats have fallen faster than Luis Suarez did into Chiellini's shoulder.

However, those of you hoping for the Liberal Democrats to stand up to the Conservatives and flex their muscles will be disappointed, this is nothing more than a cheap, vulgar and hypocritical stunt.

This is not the first time Clegg and his party have voiced their disproval, remember the Royal Mail?

Remember 'We stopped the Tories from introducing 16 'heartless' policies'?

Remember as well the Deputy Prime Minister was once heard telling the PM they had to stop agreeing as they would have nothing to disagree about in 2015.

Clegg knows the Liberal Democrats face the abyss in 2015, the protest votes have gone to UKIP, some have gone to the Greens or Labour, leaving them with not much to smile about.

He knows opposing it on the surface now and pledging to scrap it in the 2015 manifesto might tempt some voters back.

They shouldn't though and anyway the opposition have already pledged to scrap it should they be elected....

Truth be told if Nick Clegg is serious about wanting to scrap this he ought to threaten a confidence vote in

the House of Commons.

If the Lib Dems voted to scrap it along with Labour then there would be no confidence in the Government and potentially a snap election could be triggered.

Or interestingly, the Prime Minister, tired of the junior partners whinging could force a confidence vote himself.

Then the Liberal Democrats would be faced with a dilemma, vote to back it and probably lose the last of any credibility with the electorate, vote to scrap it and potentially face the electoral wilderness...

Mr Clegg, it's over to you!

Labour won on Thursday, just not well enough

Reading the newspapers and watching the news since Thursday, you would have been forgiven for thinking UKIP had broken all kinds of political records and the Conservatives had made gain after gain.

I’m afraid the truth for the likes of the Murdoch media and those who resent Ed Miliband is Labour won, well in some areas but failed to really go big in others.

The analogy I draw is Labour scored a century on a flat batting wicket but were bowled for 102 when a double hundred could and should have been possible.

But the headlines since Friday morning are frankly bizarre, Labour’s ‘nightmare night’ (they gained 300+ seats) and UKIP’s ‘earthquake’ (gained 150 seats and NO councils).

Those pale in comparison to the analysis offered which says UKIP will deny Labour election victory and will ‘eat into Labour’s core vote’.

Early on Thursday evening, Sunderland was used as the example of how Labour’s core vote was drifting to UKIP. That’s an area where, when all was said and done, Labour recorded 47 per cent of the vote….

The TRUTH is the UKIP threat is very real, very evident but it will impact on Labour AND the Conservatives.

Take a look at Essex on Thursday and Friday, many seats where David Cameron normally doesn’t need to worry about the Tory vote.

By 9am on Friday, Basildon’s Conservative leader had gone claiming his Prime Minister ‘didn’t get it’.

Both Labour and Conservatives need more seats to form a Government next year, but if there core vote is being taken by UKIP, a hung parliament again should be a very real possibility.

That’s why Labour’s performance should not be dismissed, the party gained councils in Croydon, Crawley, Redbridge and Cambridge and virtually wiped out any opposition in Islington and Manchester.

Yes not enough to win power, but a clear sign the party is recovering votes, look at the areas where Labour topped the poll, if this translates next year then Ed Miliband is Prime Minister.

The biggest anomaly at the moment is how will UKIP do next year, all the statistics suggest a good local and Euro performance is usually watered down come General Election.

Britain entered the unknown in 2010, no opinion poll can tell you the result of 2015, but one thing is sure, it’s better to be winning and topping the poll than struggling in second….

Newark – Farage’s great gamble?

Will he or won’t he? Will Nigel Farage stand and win the safe Conservative seat of Newark, give David Cameron a massive headache and rock British politics.

Or will he stand, lose and next year we will go back to talk about Labour, Conservative and the Liberal Democrats.

That’s the dilemma facing the UKIP leader tonight, stand and win and he grabs a paintbrush and to paint a new political picture from the UK.

Lose and we might all go, ‘well they aren’t up to much are they?’ – a huge bodyblow less than 12 months from the General Election.

Or to borrow from Blair, is there a third way? Could the party have Diane James line up for the seat, fresh from a very good performance in Eastleigh?

She is an incredibly articulate woman, a plain speaker and, unlike some, does not have any faux pas to hush up.

Farage could then take to the airwaves, explain he wants to focus on UKIP’s Euro election campaign and doesn’t want to be ‘part-time candidate’ and ‘the people of Newark deserve more’.

Unlike Eastleigh, Newark is safe Tory country giving UKIP a clear run at the Conservative vote, Farage can take the temperature of things are going because if she loses, well it was a 16,000 seat majority….

If she wins, Cameron gets a bloody nose and, allied to predicted poor Euro results, the Prime Minister could find himself distracted in the weeks ahead.

And wouldn’t Farage fancy a seat in the Home Counties anyway and the glory of beating the Conservatives on General Election night itself?

Javid promotion welcome but weakens PM

SO Sajid Javid is the new Culture, Media and Sport Secretary replacing Maria Miller.

On the surface it's a great move from the Prime Minister, David Cameron. A working class British Asian in a very high profile role.

Additionally Sajid is a great communicator, I should know as I spent two years covering his election and early days as Bromsgrove's MP.

It's at this point I will brag just a little, so impressed with his passion I predicted he would increase an already large majority...he did!

I have no doubt either that should the Conservatives lose the General Election next year, Sajid is an excellent 'outside bet' to become leader...

Whatever job he does he does well, a hard work ethic was driven into him by his father. I'm sure the same will apply to his culture brief .

However, I can't help but wonder if the PM has rather weakened his hand somewhat. 

The theme of next year's election will be the economy.

Given the Chancellor doesn't really devote that much time to the media, economic issues have often been left to Sajid to defend and defend well.

In a campaign where George Osborne will be managing election campaign as well as the economy, Sajid's absence could let Labour back on to the battlefield.

That remains to be seen though, congratulations to Sajid, good luck in your new role!