The Red Wall has crumbled, now the Tories want to smash it altogether

LABOUR suffered its worst defeat since 1935 on Thursday evening as clear blue water rushed through the red wall, drowning much of what was in its path.

Though the majority wasn’t as much as Tony Blair’s 22 years ago, the early hours of Friday morning felt like Labour’s 1997 landslide as the Tories picked up seat after historic seat.

Blyth Valley – Labour since 1950, Workington – Labour since 1918 apart from three years in the 70s, Rother Valley – Labour for 101 years unbroken, were just three of Labour’s ‘safe’ seats which fell to the Conservatives.

Look beyond the Tory gains and the picture is even more frightening for Labour in its heartlands.

Mike Hill retained his Hartlepool seat for Labour despite losing more than 6,500 votes and has a much-reduced majority of 3,595.

The Brexit Party’s Richard Tice polled more than 10,000 votes, had he stood aside then its fair to say Hartlepool would have gone blue too.

Ed Miliband was returned in Doncaster North by 2,370 votes from the Conservatives – the Brexit Party picked up more than 8,000 votes….

If Labour doesn’t act swiftly and recognise what happened to the party then the ‘red wall’ may well be no more come 2024, the next scheduled General Election.

While shamefully avoiding scrutiny, retaining questionable morals and having the capacity to offend every time he opens his mouth, Boris Johnson delivered an early Christmas present for his party with a remarkable result.

It’s perhaps no surprise the bluster was toned down on Friday afternoon, gone was ‘getting Brexit done’ and more of the pathetic verbal jabs at people who dared not share his view.

Instead there was talk of healing, coming together and the first salvo in what looks a move to the centre ground of British politics.

Becoming a ‘servant of the people’ as he said on Saturday is a very Blair-like comment but northerners want action not words. What they gave on Thursday they won’t think twice about taking away.

Deliver and Johnson can name his own departure date as Prime Minister because unless Labour grab the bull by the horns they will remain out of power.

It’s been nine years since the party was asked to leave Downing Street, nine more and it will equal the 18 years of exile only ended by Blair’s landslide in ‘97.

Jeremy Corbyn has faced two Conservative leaders in less than three years at the polls and lost both times.

But in an apparent sign of things to come, will he depart immediately? No he wishes for a period of reflection.

There is nothing to reflect on, the voters rejected the idea of him as Prime Minister, nothing he can say or do will now change that.

Labour’s manifesto was worthy at its heart, a fairer society is something we should all pursue every day, doing away with the need for foodbanks also.

But refusing to say whether you would authorise the use of Trident to defend our nation against an albeit hypothetical threat, wanting another Brexit referendum when the result of the first hadn’t been enacted and creating an image the wealth creators in this country were somehow immoral is not the action of a future leader.

I’ve met Mr Corbyn three times since he became leader, he’s a decent, honourable man of principle who believes in what he says – nothing he says is because a focus group said it would be idea!

The party needs him to act quickly, stand down and appoint an interim leader. Failure to do so will only accentuate the damage caused on Thursday night.

Labour is at the crossroads, the party which won power for 13 years under a leader many of its members actively despise, now faces a critical decision.

Appoint a continuity Corbyn candidate and the party could face oblivion in 2024 should the PM indeed move into the centre ground.

Understand how and why this landslide happened, why former mining towns so betrayed by Thatcher were willing to reject the party and vote Conservative and redemption could be possible.

A former leader once stressed the need to go ‘forward not back’. As much as it might hurt, its advice Labour ought to take.

Otherwise it may only appeal to the few, not the many. Sorry Jeremy

Goodbye to the Crying Lady

FAREWELL then to quite simply the worst Prime Minister in recent history. The crying lady’s body language wasn’t one of sadness but of bitterness she’d been evicted.

History will not judge Theresa May kindly, she was crowned as someone who ‘got the job done’, the vicars daughter who would reach out to those ‘just about managing’ and heal a country riven by austerity.

Instead she presided over the worst General Election campaign from a sitting Prime Minister, failed to marginalise the most ideologically-driven Labour leader since Michael Foot and deepened the divisions caused by Brexit.

And when confronted by her unpopularity, when the political winds demanded a change of course or an acknowledgement she could be wrong, she buried her head in the sand.

Politicians of all colours need a keen eye and ear to work inside and outside of the Westminster bubble, she possessed neither.

She called an unnecessary General Election in 2017. Jeremy Corbyn will never appeal to the centre ground of British politics enough to unseat a Conservative Government outright.

She began the campaign 20 points ahead in the opinion polls, yet ended with a loss of a majority which took the Tories more than 20 years to achieve.

During the campaign she was robotic, charmless and frankly boring. Corbyn meanwhile energised the youth, inspired his supporters and displayed his talents at rallies up and down the country.

When the Tory manifesto was scrutinised, instead of laying out the reasons for change, May backtracked insisting ‘nothing has changed’. A Prime Minister who offers the exotic tutti fruiti before racing back to plain vanilla is not someone who has leadership licked.

Confronted with the loss of her majority, May could and should have quit. Instead she sought a deal with the DUP, nothing wrong with that of course except it came with £1billion of cash for Northern Ireland.

The voters were rightly annoyed to see the Magic Money Tree sprout having been told ‘there’s no money left’ for seven years….

Faced with delivering Brexit, the biggest cultural shift our country has demanded in five decades, Mrs May displayed a tin ear of epic proportions.

The result was separated by just 1,269,501 votes. A majority yes but not anything like the 10 per cent difference showed by the Scottish people after their independence referendum.

Delivering the voters mandate therefore required political skill and courage, she lacked both.

Successful British Prime Ministers govern for all, not just those who elected them. Yet when she needed to carry her country with her, Mrs May marginalised everyone who voted remain.

In countless speeches she referred to delivering the wishes of the 17.4million who voted for Brexit. Had she delivered a Brexit for the 65million in this country, including all of Scotland which voted to remain, I dare say she wouldn’t be in this mess today.

We’re screaming out for leadership to carry us all forward as a country, to bring us back together. Because the British people didn’t do anything wrong, they were asked their opinion and gave it, no matter what side of the argument you are on that can never be a bad thing.

When her deal was published, it was rightly panned. It was a compromise she said, yet that wasn’t the binary choice on the ballot paper on June 23, 2016.

Faced with resignations, Mrs May acted tough, ‘My Deal or No Brexit’ she attempted to roar. Leaders can do that when they have the numbers to back the threat up with.

She never did, she presided over two of the biggest Parliamentary defeats in our history as her own party and her DUP partners baulked at backing the withdrawal agreement.

When she sought help from Corbyn, she expected Her Majesty’s official opposition to ride to the rescue in the ‘national interest’.

She didn’t for once think a) her party might be a tad annoyed at her legitimising a man they’ve deemed a threat to national security and b) Corbyn would go along with the talks but stop short of helping.

Labour doesn’t need to help her, Politics 101 tells you when the opponent is sinking never chuck a life raft.

She’s been doomed since a third of her MPs said they had no confidence in her in December, had they waited until the spring the number would have been much higher.

The simple truth is had the men in grey suits acted quicker, had the opposition been much stronger, her time as PM would already be over.

Britain deserves better than this. The question is can anyone out there rise to the challenge?

PM won't serve a third term...he's got to win a second first!

A PUZZLING annoucement from the Prime Minister during an 'at home' interview with the BBC, he won't serve a third term at Number 10...

Puzzling because of it's timing, why on earth would you on the verge of the election campaign proper say you only want the job for one more term then you'll be off?

Puzzling because recent history shows PMs who set out their future plans tend to limp along until the end, see Tony Blair after he said in 2004 he wouldn't serve a full third term. He then faced mutiny and uncertainty regularly until he eventually departed in 2007.

Puzzling because the Conservatives love a good old bunfight over the leadership, a vote for the Tories in May will gurantee lots of jostling for position and in-fighting, particularly as Cameron named his chosen three; May, Osborne and Boris. Wonder what Sajid Javid and the other 'rising stars' think about his comments.

And puzzling because technically, the PM hasn't won an election yet, either in 2010 or the upcoming poll. His comments, however well intentioned, could be percieved as arrogance from a man who didn't win a majority in 2010.

Put simply the Conservatives are shooting themselves in the foot at every turn, every good sound bite and economic news they have is undone by strategic mistakes.

The Tories ought to be doing better, Labour are led by a man who simply hasn't sealed the deal with his core Labour vote let alone floating voters, the Lib Dems are near enough finished while the UKIP pint has been watered down in recent weeks.

It's as if the Tories don't understand that to obtain a majority Government they need to do better than 2010, a very hard challenge granted but the circumstances are there.

Cameron should have embarked on his 2010 'meet the people' strategy and debated Miliband head to head. Not doing so has render his 'weak' tag on Miliband virutally redundant.

Labour's task now is to weave a narrative which once again labels Cameron arrogant, point out he failed to win a majority in 2010 and question again why he won't debate his record.

If they are successful then Cameron will indeed not serve a third term, he won't get a second either!

General Election TV Debates – The Solution

This is less of a blog, more of an open letter to all the party leaders and to the broadcasters, a solution to your current ‘dilemma’ over the proposed debates.

STRUCTURE – one debate between David Cameron and Ed Miliband and one between Cameron, Miliband and Clegg. Instead of inviting just Farage to the last one, invite him, Natalie Bennett from the Greens and George Galloway from Respect. It’s not beyond podium builders to come up with seven platforms you know!

Every party which is represented in Westminster and could feasibly field candidates in every constituency across the UK would then have a platform.

SCOTLAND, WALES AND NI – For a party very keen to distance itself from the ‘Westminster elite’, the SNP has spent a lot of time demanding to be in the debates. Why? People in England cannot vote for them. Same with Plaid Cymru and the various Northern Ireland parties, should they have a platform? No.

Instead, why not have country specific debates. I mean wasn’t the whole point of the Scottish devolution vote to ensure the Scottish voice was heard. Why not have a debate between the SNP, Scottish Labour, Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Liberal Democrats? Sky ran one the last time and it proved very successful.

Surely the voters in those countries want to know what the various parties are going to do for the country if returned to Westminster? It’s not about exclusion it’s about issues that matter to those in the respective countries are addressed.

AND IF THEY DON’T AGREE – empty chair them, this applies to the PM if he is indeed ‘chicken’ but also call Miliband’s bluff as well. Quite simply if an invited guest doesn’t turn up, leave the podium empty and let the British public draw their own conclusions.

Simple? Yeah pretty much, so is there any chance you lot can get on and sort it out because frankly there are one or two hugely more important issues affecting us at the moment!

To lose one MP is careless, to lose two is Reckless

AND another one has gone, this time Mark Reckless ditches the Conservatives for the loving embrace of UKIP.

The Rochester and Strood MP spirited away under the cover of darkness from Westminster to land in Doncaster and be the latest to stand up and put the Prime Minister down on a number of issues.

Timing wise, Nigel Farage has hit the jackpot again. We had the 'surprise' defection with Douglas Carswell, this time it was the 'timed' defection, 3pm Saturday afternoon, just as the Sunday papers were being put together ahead of day one of the Conservative Party Conference.

To call the party management shambolic is an understatement, chief whip Michael Gove appears to be phoning MPs up, asking if they are planning to defect and accepting it when the person (defecting or not) says no.

Where is the bullish party management of opposition? Why is no one getting on the front foot and telling these MPs it would be folly to defect and hammer home the message Cameron is on their side?

Instead the party's approach appears to be sit back, let it happen, smear the defector and laugh that 'jolly old UKIP are being little scoundrels aren't they?'.

Everytime Grant Shapps stands up and says Reckless 'lied and lied and lied' or the Prime Minister calls the move 'illogical' and 'a vote for UKIP is a vote for Ed Miliband' another wavering MP wonders whether he/she should make the leap.

Those feelings will only strengthen if, as expected, Carswell romps back to the House of Commons in UKIP colours on October 8. I imagine those feelings could be overbearing should Reckless do the same sometime in November.

A vote for UKIP is not 'a vote for Ed Miliband' per se. UKIP is rapidly becoming a comfy home for former Tories totally disenfranchised with the current Conservative Party.

If Cameron and his inner circle haven't grasped that yet, they should and quick. Because by the time the Prime Minister approaches the lectern to deliver his final speech to the party before the General Election next year, he may of lost another MP.

The 'maximum impact' defection....

Miliband wasn't inspiring, but he was clever

THE COMMENTARIART has spoken, Miliband was dull, boring and did not look like a Prime Minister in waiting.

They are right in the sense it was dull and boring as a whole but Prime Ministerial? Yes I think so, quiet and unassuming but with more gravitas than the previous 'Quiet Man' Iain Duncan Smith.

What they fail to appreciate is how the speech came across on the news channels, who need soundbites not great long diatribes.

On that Miliband scored big in my opinion, the line about Cameron not lying awake worried about the UK but about UKIP will have hurt and resonated with many voters.

And on Europe, Miliband's attack lines on Cameron would not only resonate with voters but with the Carswell section of the Conservatives who don't believe the Prime Minister is serious about reforming the 

European Union.

He was silly forgetting the deficit and immigration lines from the speech, his memory capacity is admirable but an Autocue is sometimes your best friend.

But those issues are front and centre of UK's voters minds so Miliband will have to talk about it between now and polling day.

Where Miliband was clever was in the use of the NHS, any Labour leader knows if they stroke the NHS, 

the members purr and the Tories cower.

The Mansion Tax - tobacco tax – hedge fund tax policy is economically sound and would provide a great big cash cow for the National Health Service.

As long as the party continues to press ahead with it, that alone should ensure Labour's core vote will at least have to think very hard before crossing to UKIP.

And it's a clever policy, it dares the Conservatives to oppose it knowing full well should they oppose they will be painted as the party of the rich and privileged and not caring about the NHS.

Thanks to the gift that keeps giving that is Grant Shapps, Labour are already ahead as the Conservatives released a poster saying Labour wanted to tax 'your family home'.....I I'd missed all those mansions in inner 

city London and Birmingham!

The criticism of the commentariart surprises me, we need to stop judging the parties on their conferences, a 

social gathering for four days.

I will be judging Cameron, Miliband and Clegg when the Prime Minister dissolves parliament for the election.

Only then should we assess those in the running for the biggest job in the country.

Scotland's vote is last act of a dying Government

THURSDAY will see a nation go to the polls faced with the biggest question asked of an electorate for many a year: Do they wish to break a 300 year old marriage and go it alone?.

There is no doubt the referendum on Scottish independence has been a good thing, it has energised people and got a nation talking about politics and voting.

But whatever the result, this week marks the beginning of the end of David Cameron's time as Prime Minister. Quite simply, the leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party could oversee the end of the union, that's a mistake I doubt even he can come back from.

Perhaps reports of his demise in the aftermath of a Yes vote are a little far-fetched, I doubt the British economy would sustain the news of Scottish independence and the resignation of a Prime Minister within 48 hours of each other!

But it would signal Cameron's time at the top was nearly over, the vultures are circling with Boris looking a shoo-in in Uxbridge and most of the cabinet are Osborne loyalists - leaving the PM with very few friends at the top.

Even Uncle Rupert appears lukewarm in backing the Tories with his hints that independence could be good for Scotland, knowing full well the damage a yes would cause to the Conservative Prime Minister.

David Cameron will become the first PM in history to lose not because the opposition was much more electable (Labour aren't) but because he's just made too many tactical errors.

1) He hasn't managed the coalition well.

Cameron needed Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats in 2010 but what he needed to do from the outset was make it clear, they contributed just 1/6th of the coalition Government and policy would be Conservative-driven.

Instead he has been in thrall to Clegg and let the junior partners get away with a number of statements such as their apparent u-turn on the Bedroom Tax. Instead of putting them on the spot and telling them to vote with their feet, knowing it would send them off the political cliff, he's allowed the Lib Dems the airwaves to try and rewrite history.

2) But ignored his party...

It's no co-incidence his party aren't happy. Conservative backbenchers wanted Tory rule after 13 years away, instead they got a Tory Government watered down with a bit of Lib Dem.

Many want to see him rule properly, but within 12 months the old rivalries spilled out and open rebellion ensured.

3) He shouldn't have introduced fixed term Parliaments

Fixed five year parliament has not worked, the party has begun it's last year of the current cycle with very little ideas, very little enthusiasm and with a reshuffle based on image not talent. Government's in this country only go into the fifth year in a desperate attempt to roll the dice and hope their fortunes change, look at Major in 92 and Brown in 2010.

Rather than five year fixed term, make it compulsory to hold an election every four years. The fortunes of the ruling party do rather improve at the end of four year cycles.

4) He ignored and then didn't grasp the UKIP threat

'Fruitcakes' and 'Loons' were the words used by the Prime Minister to describe Nigel Farage and UKIP....oh how he must regret that now.

Quite simply the PM and his party didn't recognise UKIP began hoovering up traditional Tory votes a long time ago. Farage represents the halcyon days of the Conservatives, big on business, tough on Europe and traditional British values.

He dismissed them until it was too late, now many have gone and won't come back but still Cameron and his team still disrespect UKIP. Cameron should get on the front foot, agree to the debates and agree to Farage taking part and use his considerable oratory skills to take UKIP apart.

If he carries on until May 2015 he will be a lame duck Prime Minister, propped up by a party facing disaster.

However, victory on Thursday could and maybe should be enough for him to change course, call an election and ask people the ultimate question: "Do you really want Ed Miliband as PM?"

Clegg's 'axe to tax' comments are a cheap stunt

THE Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg wants his coalition partners to ditch the 'Bedroom Tax' otherwise he will scrap it in the 2015 Lib Dem manifesto.

That is despite his party voting for it every time it has come through the House of Commons.....

What has provoked this 'crisis of conscience' for the Deputy PM and his party, new DWP figures? A tale of woe from a constiuent or even politicians just admitting they are wrong.

Or is it the fact one opinion poll this week showed the Liberal Democrats on six per cent....that's SIX per cent.

From the heights of 2010 and 'I agree with Nick', the Liberal Democrats have fallen faster than Luis Suarez did into Chiellini's shoulder.

However, those of you hoping for the Liberal Democrats to stand up to the Conservatives and flex their muscles will be disappointed, this is nothing more than a cheap, vulgar and hypocritical stunt.

This is not the first time Clegg and his party have voiced their disproval, remember the Royal Mail?

Remember 'We stopped the Tories from introducing 16 'heartless' policies'?

Remember as well the Deputy Prime Minister was once heard telling the PM they had to stop agreeing as they would have nothing to disagree about in 2015.

Clegg knows the Liberal Democrats face the abyss in 2015, the protest votes have gone to UKIP, some have gone to the Greens or Labour, leaving them with not much to smile about.

He knows opposing it on the surface now and pledging to scrap it in the 2015 manifesto might tempt some voters back.

They shouldn't though and anyway the opposition have already pledged to scrap it should they be elected....

Truth be told if Nick Clegg is serious about wanting to scrap this he ought to threaten a confidence vote in

the House of Commons.

If the Lib Dems voted to scrap it along with Labour then there would be no confidence in the Government and potentially a snap election could be triggered.

Or interestingly, the Prime Minister, tired of the junior partners whinging could force a confidence vote himself.

Then the Liberal Democrats would be faced with a dilemma, vote to back it and probably lose the last of any credibility with the electorate, vote to scrap it and potentially face the electoral wilderness...

Mr Clegg, it's over to you!

Labour won on Thursday, just not well enough

Reading the newspapers and watching the news since Thursday, you would have been forgiven for thinking UKIP had broken all kinds of political records and the Conservatives had made gain after gain.

I’m afraid the truth for the likes of the Murdoch media and those who resent Ed Miliband is Labour won, well in some areas but failed to really go big in others.

The analogy I draw is Labour scored a century on a flat batting wicket but were bowled for 102 when a double hundred could and should have been possible.

But the headlines since Friday morning are frankly bizarre, Labour’s ‘nightmare night’ (they gained 300+ seats) and UKIP’s ‘earthquake’ (gained 150 seats and NO councils).

Those pale in comparison to the analysis offered which says UKIP will deny Labour election victory and will ‘eat into Labour’s core vote’.

Early on Thursday evening, Sunderland was used as the example of how Labour’s core vote was drifting to UKIP. That’s an area where, when all was said and done, Labour recorded 47 per cent of the vote….

The TRUTH is the UKIP threat is very real, very evident but it will impact on Labour AND the Conservatives.

Take a look at Essex on Thursday and Friday, many seats where David Cameron normally doesn’t need to worry about the Tory vote.

By 9am on Friday, Basildon’s Conservative leader had gone claiming his Prime Minister ‘didn’t get it’.

Both Labour and Conservatives need more seats to form a Government next year, but if there core vote is being taken by UKIP, a hung parliament again should be a very real possibility.

That’s why Labour’s performance should not be dismissed, the party gained councils in Croydon, Crawley, Redbridge and Cambridge and virtually wiped out any opposition in Islington and Manchester.

Yes not enough to win power, but a clear sign the party is recovering votes, look at the areas where Labour topped the poll, if this translates next year then Ed Miliband is Prime Minister.

The biggest anomaly at the moment is how will UKIP do next year, all the statistics suggest a good local and Euro performance is usually watered down come General Election.

Britain entered the unknown in 2010, no opinion poll can tell you the result of 2015, but one thing is sure, it’s better to be winning and topping the poll than struggling in second….

Javid promotion welcome but weakens PM

SO Sajid Javid is the new Culture, Media and Sport Secretary replacing Maria Miller.

On the surface it's a great move from the Prime Minister, David Cameron. A working class British Asian in a very high profile role.

Additionally Sajid is a great communicator, I should know as I spent two years covering his election and early days as Bromsgrove's MP.

It's at this point I will brag just a little, so impressed with his passion I predicted he would increase an already large majority...he did!

I have no doubt either that should the Conservatives lose the General Election next year, Sajid is an excellent 'outside bet' to become leader...

Whatever job he does he does well, a hard work ethic was driven into him by his father. I'm sure the same will apply to his culture brief .

However, I can't help but wonder if the PM has rather weakened his hand somewhat. 

The theme of next year's election will be the economy.

Given the Chancellor doesn't really devote that much time to the media, economic issues have often been left to Sajid to defend and defend well.

In a campaign where George Osborne will be managing election campaign as well as the economy, Sajid's absence could let Labour back on to the battlefield.

That remains to be seen though, congratulations to Sajid, good luck in your new role!

The Tories aren't just playing on Miliband's pitch, they are playing his game

George Osborne has been warning Tories 'not to play on Miliband's pitch' when it comes to the living standards battle being fought by Labour at the moment.

 

Yet his comments talking about how the Government 'needs to step in to create the rules of the market' sounds remarkably like Ed Miliband's conference speech.

 

Remember that? the speech labelled 'marxist', 'left wing' and something which would 'drag Britain back to the 1970s' according to the Prime Minister and his Chancellor.

 

Since then, the Tories have not only been forced on to the pitch but now are playing Labour's game.

 

The energy price freeze? A 'con' according to the Tories, but something they now have to find an answer to.

 

Now they are tackling pay day lenders like Wonga, finally listening to Labour MPs like Stella Creasy.

 

The masked even slipped from Jeremy Hunt on Question Time last Thursday when he said they were clearing up the mess left by the 'banking crisis' in 2008.

 

Funny, I thought they were clearing up Labour's mess.....

 

Miliband is being clever, some of the conference speech may well have been froth and bubble but most of it has resonated.

 

It's a source of anger to the Tories that people are listening to the opposition again when the economy is improving and people are not focusing on that.

 

Logically, Labour should be sinking now, a leader who isn't exactly battering Cameron as Blair did Major and with only a small amount of policy on the board with a Shadow Chancellor who will

forever be linked to the last Labour Government.

 

None of that will change between now and 2015 as Miliband simply cannot swing for the fence as hard as Blair did.

 

But Cameron is getting increasingly hamstrung by events, I have noticed in recent weeks the Conservative supporting papers are beginning to get very hostile, a reaction to Cameron waiving

through the Royal Charter on press regulation?

 

His appointment of Lynton Crosby could prove to be a mistake, the British people want a sense of fair play in their politics, if the Government get dirty then many may vote Labour in protest.

 

And the UKIP factor - I have previously called them the UK's Tea Party and the 'Farage Factor' is clear. Cameron is cutting the green 'crap' out of his Conservative Party and talking a lot about immigration and the EU, to tempt UKIP voters back.

 

Has the boat sailed though? I suspect for many 'older' Tory voters it has, many will vote for UKIP quite simply because its the Conservative Party they knew in the 80s.

 

And should Cameron waive through HS2, the line will go through the fields and back gardens of his core home counties vote, enough for many to vote UKIP I suspect.

 

Hope? Hell yes, despite Nick Harvey suggesting 2015 is already decided, Cameron could yet pull off victory if the economy gets better, inflation comes down and more money is in our pockets.

 

However he needs party unity, a warmer press than he is getting at the moment and to get off Miliband's pitch.

 

The Autumn Statement is a good chance to unveil a whole new ball game for Labour to match.....

Cameron should attack UKIP, the UK Tea Party

'We want our country back' boomed Nigel Farage at UKIPs annual conference.

Aside from the obvious falsehood that the country has not gone anywhere, it nevertheless remains a statement of intent.

Farage is shrewd, canny and clever and talks about taking votes from all parties. The truth is he wants to do to the Conservative Party what the Tea Party did to the Republican Party in the United States, suck them dry and become a real voice on the right of British politics.

The Tea Party lured so many 'traditional' Republican voters that the GOP has picked extremely right wing candidates in last two Presidential races in a bid to secure the Tea Party votes.

Not brilliant when they are up against a mixed race president who shattered many social stigmas when he won the presidency.

The result is a Republican party which eschews candidates like Chris Christie and promotes the likes of Romney, Perry and Herman Cain.

It’s an influence which is now keenly felt on Capitol Hill and UKIP would love to recreate that at Westminster.

A pact is about likely as snow in the Mojave Desert - Farage doesn’t like Cameron’s brand of Conservatism and Cameron doesn’t like Farage and UKIP period.

So 2015 there will be a choice for Conservative leaning voters – the Tories or UKIP. Do they abandon a Conservative Party they don’t like under Cameron and install a Labour Prime Minister or back Cameron and risk being alienated even further.

And that’s why I think Cameron was understated at his party conference this week, safe and steady speech stressing the need for a safe and steady hand on the economy.

Interestingly there was a strong focus on backing big business by attacking Labour’s plans to halt the Corporation Tax and an admission about the furore over gay marriage – a gentle prod back at UKIP.

The Prime Minister may have looked down the camera and not in the hall but I think it was a speech designed to speak to lifelong Tory voters.

If Cameron can persuade them he embodies many classic Tory values as well as those of 21^st century Britain he may see off the UKIP threat.

If he can’t then he may go down in history as the Conservative PM who failed to win what many considered an easy election in 2010 and then lost because of a party with no MPs at Westminster currently.

Mail's attack on Miliband's father shows how low we have sunk

The piece on Ralph Miliband in Saturday's Mail has proven just how low we as a country have sunk.

Not wanting to debate his policies, fact check his claims and lay out how much they would cost the country if elected, Paul Dacre has gone for the lowest of blows and smeared a dead man.

Ralph Miliband died in 1994, seven years before Ed Miliband became part of Tony Blair's Government and almost a decade before Ed was elected as an MP.

Yet now is the time to declare Ralph 'hated' Britain. We'll ignore he escaped to this country away from Hitler's persecution of the Jews, we'll also ignore Ralph actually fought for his country against the evils of Nazism.

But because he was a thinker, because he believed in a different way, because he did not like the Britain he was a part of, he was this evil being?

No, he wanted better for his country, wanted better for his children, something we all want on a daily basis and have the right at the ballot box.

The Mail justify it by saying Miliband speaks highly of his father, who wouldn't? His father braved the Nazi's twice, once to escape for a better life and secondly to stop Hitler inflciting the Nazism on the rest of the world!

But to suggest a plot, a conspiracy is lunacy, when Ralph died in 1994, both Miliband brothers had not even been thought of as MPs!

What sickens and saddens me more is the lack of outrage from a number of people on the right, Boris Johnson and Prime Minister David Cameron have backed Ed's right to defend his father but not condemned the Mail for its actions.

No surprise given the Mail's predominately Tory readership but this is not how we do politics, sullying the dead who cannot respond.

Sometimes it's cringy but I do not mind seeing politicians talk about their upbringing, you could see the love between David Cameron and his father on the campaign trail in 2010.

We cannot deny our parentage, we are made from the union of one man and one woman, nor should we.

But there is a line which should be crossed, attacks on the dead with the aim of suppressing the work of the child is not the act of a decent society.

It's also rather hypocritical of the Mail given their attacks on groups of people who, wrongly, 'celebrated' the death of Margaret Thatcher.

As a journalist, I vehemently oppose the introduction of the Royal Charter, but if it's introduced, after this then I would not be surprised.

Shame on you Dacre, Shame on you Daily Mail

Time to freeze the Tories out now Ed

I GOT it, three years after he was elected, I now know Labour made the right choice and picked the right Miliband.

What Brighton and the country saw today wasn’t socialism, a return to the 70s, a union manifesto, the same old Labour (some of the Conservative criticisms I spotted) but common sense.

Why can’t the big six energy companies, whose profits are in the billions, take a price freeze for 20 months to ease the burden on home-owners.

Why can’t we build houses? Why can’t young people aged 16 help decide on the nation’s Government? Why should un-used land remain un-used land?

Commentators have said there was no mention of Clegg and the Liberal Democrats and they are right, but Miliband nicked their fairness theme good and proper!

Let’s make this energy freeze clear, it’s a freeze from May 2015 until December 31 2016, what happens after that god only knows but Miliband didn’t stand there and promise prizes would be fixed forever.

It’s about putting money in people’s pocket and could be nothing more than an election bribe, Conservatives will do everything to get you on a cheap tariff, Labour will ensure you pay that tariff for a fixed period.

On voting, politicians talk every day about engaging young people in politics, Miliband has suggested actually doing something about it.

On forcing people to give up land they own for development, well look at the derelict buildings in your town, ask yourself, could something be done with it?

The Conservatives have introduced a mortgage scheme making it easier to buy a home, Labour suggest building new homes and getting the UKs flagging construction industry moving.

There is some flesh on those bones now, it’s a good start and certainly the mention of ‘My Government’ was sporadic and far from presumptious.

And the macho cabal...I mean challenges to the Prime Minister were clever, Mr Cameron now either has to answer back and risk being accused of having nothing to say re policies or risk saying nothing and being accused of backing away.

Labour have cleverly took away a lot of attack weapons from the Prime Minister and Chancellor George Osborne this week and created an impression they could form the next Government.

But, having made the weather, Miliband and his team must ensure they make it rain on the Prime Minister every day from now until May 6, 2015 – the date of the next General Election.

If they don’t then Ed may have to grab an umbrella himself and prepare for a deluge....

Ashcroft poll highlights PM's problem

POLITICAL sage Lord Ashcroft has delivered another piece of enthralling research, this time on 40 key marginals across the UK.

A total of 32 seats are narrowly held by the Conservatives over Labour, eight by them over coalition partners the Liberal Democrats.

The good news for Mr Cameron is that the Tories will hold those eight seats from their Liberal Democrat partners.

The bad is Labour would take the 32 seats AND a further 66 should the party notch up the 8.5 per cent swing Ashcroft has found in these marginals, enough to put Ed Miliband in Downing Street with no need for deals...

But this is no 1997 landslide in the making, more chronically worrying for Mr Cameron is Labour is so strong in these marginals because the Conservative vote has jumped ship to UKIP with Lord Ashcroft recording a rise in eight points since in the Farage vote since 2010.

In my professional life (professional? me? lol) I saw first hand the UKIP threat covering the local elections in Worcestershire in May. While UKIP did not win a seat in my patch they reduced some pretty hefty Tory majorities almost to dust.

They even kicked Tory councillors out in some parts of the county and there's the rub for the Conservatives. Accept UKIP is a problem for predominatly them to handle, they may yet win in 2015, deny it and they lose.

While Ed Miliband floats along, the Prime Minister would do well to turn the attack away from Labour and on to UKIP to try and tempt his waivering voters back. Strong leadership, real signs the economy is back off its sick bed and a concentration on core Conservative values would help.

A business focused PM, one that looked after the pennies and made people feel wealthier again and Labour are quite possibly knackered.

While I applaud the PM for his gay marriage legislation, that was a second term issue and something rushed into, a charge you can level at Mr Cameron rather a lot since 2010.

And the truth is, he really ought to tell the backbenchers to simply put up or shut up, Major did it with Redwood in 95 and was thrashed in 1997 but Miliband is not proving to be Tony Blair, at the moment.

David Cameron is already the Conservative Prime Minister who lost the unloseable election, will he be the Conservative PM who lost the country to Labour thanks to UKIP?

In defence of Ed Miliband and Labour

David Aaronovitch's piece in The Times today has convinced me that as far as our national news media is concerned, the 2015 General Election should be shelved in favour of a continued coalition or a Conservative government.

 

For those of you lucky enough not have read it, it is yet another attack on Miliband for taking a position on something.

 

Aaronovitch brands Miliband 'a vulture' and deplores him for not racing to support the Prime Minister's initial view Syrian should be blown to bits.

 

On Syria, there is no doubt Miliband played politics in the sense he knew the Conservative were hardly fully united behind their leader.

 

One of the roles of the opposition is to make the incumbent Prime Minister look weak and feeble, if you need proof look at at the sustained assault on Major by Blair for three years.

 

But Miliband has to define himself as leader, many in the UK think of Labour in relation to Iraq, is there anything wrong with a Labour leader urging restraint and diplomacy?

 

We have no CATEGORICAL proof Assad gassed his own people and we do not know what the tyrant would do in the event of any strike against the country.

 

Could he fire on Israel? Would Israel then retaliate? How would Iran respond? - can you see how quickly one strike against Assad could trigger even more tension in an already heated Middle East.

 

But Aaronovitch's piece is no surprise, Miliband simply cannot win with anyone in the national media at the moment.

• He doesn't take a position on something – we are told we don't know what he stands for
• He takes a position on something – he's not a natural leader, he is so wrong etc

On breaking Labour's historic link to the unions, Miliband proposed a change to let workers opt in rather than be forced to see some of their subscription go to the party.

 

Modern idea for modern and austere times, there may be people in unions who don't actually support Labour, so why should they help fund them?

 

But what did we hear, oh it will never work, Miliband won't do it he was voted in by the unions, etc.

 

And of course the economy, Tories blame Labour for reckless spending while in office (Conservative Party under Cameron supported Labour's spending plans until 2008).

 

I won't pretend I agree with everything Miliband has done, his rampant support for Leveson and closeness to Hacked Off annoy me.

 

I am also one of those who feel Alistair Darling must be brought back as Chancellor next year to add experience to the Shadow Cabinet.

 

And the party conference this year should not be about vision and hope, it needs to give a first glimpse of a future Government.

 

A 'vulture' then? No, just the leader of the opposition trying to end this cycle of long periods of opposition once a party has been kicked out of Government.

Press hasn't been gagged over Downing Street 'affair'....

It's an affair which has 'stunned' people in Downing Street and could have huge repercussions for our Prime Minister David Cameron.

So much so that the Mail on Sunday quoted the line that Mr Cameron ‘immediately realised the importance of the story'.

The Mail also added: “David Cameron holds crisis talks at Downing Street after being told of the alleged affair which has potentially significant political implications for him.”

Yet amid all the rumours there were demands for the names and accusations Downing Street and Mr Cameron had told the Mail on Sunday not to run something.

Rubbish, do you really think a Conservative-leaning newspaper would have run this unless they knew the damage it could do to Mr Cameron who is hardly their friend at the moment.

The simple truth is the Mail on Sunday ran as much as it could do by law, there is no junction or super-injuction preventing the MoS spilling the beans but other legal reasons.

As I tried to state last night, newspapers are governed by a variety of laws and restrictions and cases like this show how responsible the industry can be.

The names of the two rumoured to be involved are rather widely found now on the internet and social media.

I would imagine the Mail's lawyers are working on a way around the legal restrictions as I write this as a result.

Even though this is a personal blog, I abide by the laws covering my profession so I won't reveal the names.

But if the rumours are true and they are indeed the two people involved, our Prime Minister will have a huge headache.

Labour’s biggest challenge? Making the voters forget!

A lot has been said and written about Ed Miliband failing to take Labour into a 15, 20 even 25 point lead in the polls considering the economy is in the toilet under a Government which lurches from crisis to crisis.

They have no policies, Ed is not credible, it’s all their fault the economy is in such a bad state and Iraq are the main sticks to beat the party with.

But it’s nothing as broad. Driving home from Walsall at the weekend, I caught the excellent Pienaar’s Politics on Radio Five Live which featured the pollster Peter Kellner from YouGov.

Not only was there a engrossing political debate but Mr Kellner absolutely nailed the party’s biggest issue and one it will have to address before 2015 – the voters themselves.

Labour are being largely ignored, according to Kellner, because the electorate kicked them out in 2010 and asked them to ‘go play outside for a bit’ while they met their new Government.

And there is Ed’s biggest headache, how does he break with recent political history and ask to be let back into the house with the big black door?

Not since the 70s has British politics let the opposition back into power, the UK voters are fair-minded to give their Government’s a good spell in power.

Labour had 13 years up to 2010, the Conservatives had 18 years from 1979 to 1997 and 11 years from 1951 to 1964.

After a six year spell in office, Harold Wilson was ejected as Labour PM in 1970 but was back thanks to two general elections in 1974 only to lose to Thatcher in 79.

Before he even can talk about the mistakes of the past and the vision of the future, Ed actually has to get the voters listening to a party they asked to leave just three years ago.

Crack it and he can start measuring the curtains for Downing Street now, the Government is that vulnerable.

If people are still feeling the squeeze on their wages and at the supermarket two years from now, then and only then will the voters turn around and say: “So Mr Milliband, tell us more about these ideas....”

If they aren’t, then perhaps the best he can hope for is another hung parliament with Labour as the largest party and a deal with a weakened Liberal Democrats.

Labour MP Michael Dugher delivered the best line on the party’s lack of an economic plan though when he said: “We don’t know where the economy will be in two year’s time.”

Something Dugher’s former rival for the Doncaster North seat ought to repeat over and over again.

Maybe then the voters will listen Ed?