Showing posts with label Miliband. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Miliband. Show all posts

Wednesday, 8 July 2015

What is the point of the Labour Party?

ONE of the great aspects of democracy is usually there is always 'another way'.

Unhappy with the Government? Well take a look at the party in opposition. Had enough of the Government? Then vote the other lot in! 

Be it Thatcher in 79 or Blair in 97, oppositions should show Governments up and present an opportunity for us to vote them in and 'let them have a go'.

Except today, the Labour Party - Her Majesty's official opposition - is not doing that.

Instead the party which once threatened to wipe the dishevelled Tory party of the late 90s almost off the electoral map is now giving the Conservatives a free run at being the Government.

Why? Because Labour must have a debate with itself about why it lost in May, a debate which has seen its MPs coerced into putting someone on the ballot they hope will lose!

The worst part of all this is the party is repeating the mistake of 2010 when it spent the whole summer 'having a debate'.

Meanwhile the Tories not only governed but spun the narrative that the nation was penniless and it was all Labour's fault - a charge which stuck and condemned Labour and Ed Miliband to defeat in May.

And so back to the present, Chancellor George Osborne delivered the first Conservative budget for 19 years.

Labour through Harriett Harperson trotted out the same tired cliches and the candidates all said they'd oppose the jolly bad bits they didn't agree with....

Three of four candidates standing will basically continue the same approach as Ed Miliband, trying desperately to regain economic credibility while also still reaching for their wallets to spend, spend and spend.

Liz Kendall said it was wise to adopt some of the Tory economic polices and was instantly branded 'Tory' by her rivals.

Which is fine, until you realise that actually at the moment, voters might not like the 'Tory' medicine but trust it more than Labour's cure.

Labour needs to start listening to the nation which once flocked to it in its droves and send a message it's still an aspiring Government.

Because otherwise very soon a lot more people may ask 'What is the point of the Labour Party?'

PS: Labour, you lost in May because people didn't like the policies and didn't trust your leader. Worst still while the electorate didn't like the Tories, they were scared of you. Debate done!

Tuesday, 24 March 2015

PM won't serve a third term...he's got to win a second first!

A PUZZLING annoucement from the Prime Minister during an 'at home' interview with the BBC, he won't serve a third term at Number 10...

Puzzling because of it's timing, why on earth would you on the verge of the election campaign proper say you only want the job for one more term then you'll be off?

Puzzling because recent history shows PMs who set out their future plans tend to limp along until the end, see Tony Blair after he said in 2004 he wouldn't serve a full third term. He then faced mutiny and uncertainty regularly until he eventually departed in 2007.

Puzzling because the Conservatives love a good old bunfight over the leadership, a vote for the Tories in May will gurantee lots of jostling for position and in-fighting, particularly as Cameron named his chosen three; May, Osborne and Boris. Wonder what Sajid Javid and the other 'rising stars' think about his comments.

And puzzling because technically, the PM hasn't won an election yet, either in 2010 or the upcoming poll. His comments, however well intentioned, could be percieved as arrogance from a man who didn't win a majority in 2010.

Put simply the Conservatives are shooting themselves in the foot at every turn, every good sound bite and economic news they have is undone by strategic mistakes.

The Tories ought to be doing better, Labour are led by a man who simply hasn't sealed the deal with his core Labour vote let alone floating voters, the Lib Dems are near enough finished while the UKIP pint has been watered down in recent weeks.

It's as if the Tories don't understand that to obtain a majority Government they need to do better than 2010, a very hard challenge granted but the circumstances are there.

Cameron should have embarked on his 2010 'meet the people' strategy and debated Miliband head to head. Not doing so has render his 'weak' tag on Miliband virutally redundant.

Labour's task now is to weave a narrative which once again labels Cameron arrogant, point out he failed to win a majority in 2010 and question again why he won't debate his record.


If they are successful then Cameron will indeed not serve a third term, he won't get a second either!

Wednesday, 14 January 2015

General Election TV Debates – The Solution

This is less of a blog, more of an open letter to all the party leaders and to the broadcasters, a solution to your current ‘dilemma’ over the proposed debates.

STRUCTURE – one debate between David Cameron and Ed Miliband and one between Cameron, Miliband and Clegg. Instead of inviting just Farage to the last one, invite him, Natalie Bennett from the Greens and George Galloway from Respect. It’s not beyond podium builders to come up with seven platforms you know!
Every party which is represented in Westminster and could feasibly field candidates in every constituency across the UK would then have a platform.

SCOTLAND, WALES AND NI – For a party very keen to distance itself from the ‘Westminster elite’, the SNP has spent a lot of time demanding to be in the debates. Why? People in England cannot vote for them. Same with Plaid Cymru and the various Northern Ireland parties, should they have a platform? No.
Instead, why not have country specific debates. I mean wasn’t the whole point of the Scottish devolution vote to ensure the Scottish voice was heard. Why not have a debate between the SNP, Scottish Labour, Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Liberal Democrats? Sky ran one the last time and it proved very successful.

Surely the voters in those countries want to know what the various parties are going to do for the country if returned to Westminster? It’s not about exclusion it’s about issues that matter to those in the respective countries are addressed.

AND IF THEY DON’T AGREE – empty chair them, this applies to the PM if he is indeed ‘chicken’ but also call Miliband’s bluff as well. Quite simply if an invited guest doesn’t turn up, leave the podium empty and let the British public draw their own conclusions.
Simple? Yeah pretty much, so is there any chance you lot can get on and sort it out because frankly there are one or two hugely more important issues affecting us at the moment!

Wednesday, 24 September 2014

Miliband wasn't inspiring, but he was clever

THE COMMENTARIART has spoken, Miliband was dull, boring and did not look like a Prime Minister in waiting.

They are right in the sense it was dull and boring as a whole but Prime Ministerial? Yes I think so, quiet and unassuming but with more gravitas than the previous 'Quiet Man' Iain Duncan Smith.

What they fail to appreciate is how the speech came across on the news channels, who need soundbites not great long diatribes.

On that Miliband scored big in my opinion, the line about Cameron not lying awake worried about the UK but about UKIP will have hurt and resonated with many voters.

And on Europe, Miliband's attack lines on Cameron would not only resonate with voters but with the Carswell section of the Conservatives who don't believe the Prime Minister is serious about reforming the 
European Union.

He was silly forgetting the deficit and immigration lines from the speech, his memory capacity is admirable but an Autocue is sometimes your best friend.

But those issues are front and centre of UK's voters minds so Miliband will have to talk about it between now and polling day.

Where Miliband was clever was in the use of the NHS, any Labour leader knows if they stroke the NHS, 
the members purr and the Tories cower.

The Mansion Tax - tobacco tax – hedge fund tax policy is economically sound and would provide a great big cash cow for the National Health Service.

As long as the party continues to press ahead with it, that alone should ensure Labour's core vote will at least have to think very hard before crossing to UKIP.

And it's a clever policy, it dares the Conservatives to oppose it knowing full well should they oppose they will be painted as the party of the rich and privileged and not caring about the NHS.

Thanks to the gift that keeps giving that is Grant Shapps, Labour are already ahead as the Conservatives released a poster saying Labour wanted to tax 'your family home'.....I I'd missed all those mansions in inner 
city London and Birmingham!

The criticism of the commentariart surprises me, we need to stop judging the parties on their conferences, a 
social gathering for four days.

I will be judging Cameron, Miliband and Clegg when the Prime Minister dissolves parliament for the election.


Only then should we assess those in the running for the biggest job in the country.

Thursday, 28 August 2014

Carswell defection shows Tory troubles

DOUGLAS Carswell's defection to UKIP has highlighted the very real problem for David Cameron and the Conservatives.

The darling of the backbenches, Carswell has been a thorn in Cameron's side for a while now.

Peace seem to have broken out when Carswell appeared to back the PM over his pledge for an in/out referendum should the Tories win in 2015.

However, something has changed in Carswell's mind. Either he thinks the party won't win in 2015 so has decided to jump now or this is some sort of weird stalking horse effort.

If Carswell wins for UKIP in Clacton, it could pave the way for other Tories to follow suit and persuade more traditional Tories to abandon the party for UKIP.

You might expect the Tories to respond, remind voters Carswell appears to have reneged on his backing for the party.

Instead the attack dogs were sent out online to attack Ed Miliband for 'not saying anything about Rotherham'.

We'll ignore the fact the party has called for the PCC to step down, that senior council figure has already resigned with more expected to follow....

And that sums up the Tories, when there is discord within the party, they lash out at Miliband and Labour. Carswell didn't defect because of Miliband, he defected because of Cameron and Osborne.

The killer line in Carswell's interview on Sky was the use of the word 'honest' in relation to Miliband's position on the EU.

The implication being Cameron isn't and that, whether the Tories want to admit it or not, is the Tories biggest headache.

If Cameron doesn't 'get it', then I'm afraid his dreams of an EU referendum will turn to dust.


Saturday, 28 June 2014

PM in a muddle of his own making

IT'S not been the best week for the Prime Minister.

Following Andy Coulson being found guilty of conspiring to hack phones on Tuesday, the PM upset most of his European friends on Friday and heard how a former advisor had been sent to prison on child porn charges.

In a political world where all we hear is how bad Miliband is and how if he was doing better the Tories would be toast, I pose the opposite question, wouldn't the Tories be solid certainties for a majority in 2015 if Cameron was better at his job?

Think about it, the economy is slowing rousing itself from it's slumber, voters are warming to the PM's EU reform talk and the party is staying close to Labour in the polls.

Yet time after time Cameron is either guilty of or presides over cock ups which once again make you think about a change of owner of Number 10 in May 2015.

The Prime Minister of the UK should know a trial is not concluded until a verdict was given on all charges. Yet Cameron raced to get on TV on Tuesday to besmirch Coulson while a jury was still considering some of the charges.

Surely someone close to Cameron should have pulled him to one side and advised it was better to wait for all verdicts before he spoke out. To some it would have looked cowardly but in the long term it would have created an air of professionalism lacking in Downing Street in recent weeks.

And on the EU, Cameron is a hopeless diplomat, emboldened by his one triumph of getting the UK's contribution to the bloated organisation reduced, the PM tried a Thatcherite approach on Friday.

The difference is most of the EU leaders were scared stiff of Maggie, with Cameron they point and laugh and gently remind him he has to face his voters next year.

Truth be told the EU values our opinion about as much as I care for salad, Merkel and co will only listen if the PM returns to Brussels next June/July with a parliamentary majority and they no an in/out EU referendum is very much possible.

The PM thinks this tough talking on Europe wins votes, it does but only if you succeed. Failure's like yesterday only help Farage and UKIP hoover up more Tory votes.

Honestly, Cameron is a very good Prime Minister but when he loses next year it won't be because Labour won, it will be because he lost by making too many mistakes.

By May 2015, David Cameron might not only have lost the unlosable election of 2010 but he might lose his job to a gentleman not many people actually want to see in Number 10.

Sunday, 25 May 2014

Labour won on Thursday, just not well enough

Reading the newspapers and watching the news since Thursday, you would have been forgiven for thinking UKIP had broken all kinds of political records and the Conservatives had made gain after gain.

I’m afraid the truth for the likes of the Murdoch media and those who resent Ed Miliband is Labour won, well in some areas but failed to really go big in others.
The analogy I draw is Labour scored a century on a flat batting wicket but were bowled for 102 when a double hundred could and should have been possible.

But the headlines since Friday morning are frankly bizarre, Labour’s ‘nightmare night’ (they gained 300+ seats) and UKIP’s ‘earthquake’ (gained 150 seats and NO councils).
Those pale in comparison to the analysis offered which says UKIP will deny Labour election victory and will ‘eat into Labour’s core vote’.

Early on Thursday evening, Sunderland was used as the example of how Labour’s core vote was drifting to UKIP. That’s an area where, when all was said and done, Labour recorded 47 per cent of the vote….
The TRUTH is the UKIP threat is very real, very evident but it will impact on Labour AND the Conservatives.

Take a look at Essex on Thursday and Friday, many seats where David Cameron normally doesn’t need to worry about the Tory vote.
By 9am on Friday, Basildon’s Conservative leader had gone claiming his Prime Minister ‘didn’t get it’.

Both Labour and Conservatives need more seats to form a Government next year, but if there core vote is being taken by UKIP, a hung parliament again should be a very real possibility.
That’s why Labour’s performance should not be dismissed, the party gained councils in Croydon, Crawley, Redbridge and Cambridge and virtually wiped out any opposition in Islington and Manchester.

Yes not enough to win power, but a clear sign the party is recovering votes, look at the areas where Labour topped the poll, if this translates next year then Ed Miliband is Prime Minister.
The biggest anomaly at the moment is how will UKIP do next year, all the statistics suggest a good local and Euro performance is usually watered down come General Election.

Britain entered the unknown in 2010, no opinion poll can tell you the result of 2015, but one thing is sure, it’s better to be winning and topping the poll than struggling in second….

Tuesday, 26 November 2013

The Tories aren't just playing on Miliband's pitch, they are playing his game

George Osborne has been warning Tories 'not to play on Miliband's pitch' when it comes to the living standards battle being fought by Labour at the moment.
 
Yet his comments talking about how the Government 'needs to step in to create the rules of the market' sounds remarkably like Ed Miliband's conference speech.
 
Remember that? the speech labelled 'marxist', 'left wing' and something which would 'drag Britain back to the 1970s' according to the Prime Minister and his Chancellor.
 
Since then, the Tories have not only been forced on to the pitch but now are playing Labour's game.
 
The energy price freeze? A 'con' according to the Tories, but something they now have to find an answer to.
 
Now they are tackling pay day lenders like Wonga, finally listening to Labour MPs like Stella Creasy.
 
The masked even slipped from Jeremy Hunt on Question Time last Thursday when he said they were clearing up the mess left by the 'banking crisis' in 2008.
 
Funny, I thought they were clearing up Labour's mess.....
 
Miliband is being clever, some of the conference speech may well have been froth and bubble but most of it has resonated.
 
It's a source of anger to the Tories that people are listening to the opposition again when the economy is improving and people are not focusing on that.
 
Logically, Labour should be sinking now, a leader who isn't exactly battering Cameron as Blair did Major and with only a small amount of policy on the board with a Shadow Chancellor who will
forever be linked to the last Labour Government.
 
None of that will change between now and 2015 as Miliband simply cannot swing for the fence as hard as Blair did.
 
But Cameron is getting increasingly hamstrung by events, I have noticed in recent weeks the Conservative supporting papers are beginning to get very hostile, a reaction to Cameron waiving
through the Royal Charter on press regulation?
 
His appointment of Lynton Crosby could prove to be a mistake, the British people want a sense of fair play in their politics, if the Government get dirty then many may vote Labour in protest.
 
And the UKIP factor - I have previously called them the UK's Tea Party and the 'Farage Factor' is clear. Cameron is cutting the green 'crap' out of his Conservative Party and talking a lot about immigration and the EU, to tempt UKIP voters back.
 
Has the boat sailed though? I suspect for many 'older' Tory voters it has, many will vote for UKIP quite simply because its the Conservative Party they knew in the 80s.
 
And should Cameron waive through HS2, the line will go through the fields and back gardens of his core home counties vote, enough for many to vote UKIP I suspect.
 
Hope? Hell yes, despite Nick Harvey suggesting 2015 is already decided, Cameron could yet pull off victory if the economy gets better, inflation comes down and more money is in our pockets.
 
However he needs party unity, a warmer press than he is getting at the moment and to get off Miliband's pitch.
 
The Autumn Statement is a good chance to unveil a whole new ball game for Labour to match.....

Tuesday, 1 October 2013

Mail's attack on Miliband's father shows how low we have sunk

The piece on Ralph Miliband in Saturday's Mail has proven just how low we as a country have sunk.

Not wanting to debate his policies, fact check his claims and lay out how much they would cost the country if elected, Paul Dacre has gone for the lowest of blows and smeared a dead man.

Ralph Miliband died in 1994, seven years before Ed Miliband became part of Tony Blair's Government and almost a decade before Ed was elected as an MP.

Yet now is the time to declare Ralph 'hated' Britain. We'll ignore he escaped to this country away from Hitler's persecution of the Jews, we'll also ignore Ralph actually fought for his country against the evils of Nazism.

But because he was a thinker, because he believed in a different way, because he did not like the Britain he was a part of, he was this evil being?

No, he wanted better for his country, wanted better for his children, something we all want on a daily basis and have the right at the ballot box.

The Mail justify it by saying Miliband speaks highly of his father, who wouldn't? His father braved the Nazi's twice, once to escape for a better life and secondly to stop Hitler inflciting the Nazism on the rest of the world!

But to suggest a plot, a conspiracy is lunacy, when Ralph died in 1994, both Miliband brothers had not even been thought of as MPs!

What sickens and saddens me more is the lack of outrage from a number of people on the right, Boris Johnson and Prime Minister David Cameron have backed Ed's right to defend his father but not condemned the Mail for its actions.

No surprise given the Mail's predominately Tory readership but this is not how we do politics, sullying the dead who cannot respond.

Sometimes it's cringy but I do not mind seeing politicians talk about their upbringing, you could see the love between David Cameron and his father on the campaign trail in 2010.

We cannot deny our parentage, we are made from the union of one man and one woman, nor should we.

But there is a line which should be crossed, attacks on the dead with the aim of suppressing the work of the child is not the act of a decent society.

It's also rather hypocritical of the Mail given their attacks on groups of people who, wrongly, 'celebrated' the death of Margaret Thatcher.

As a journalist, I vehemently oppose the introduction of the Royal Charter, but if it's introduced, after this then I would not be surprised.

Shame on you Dacre, Shame on you Daily Mail

Tuesday, 24 September 2013

Time to freeze the Tories out now Ed

I GOT it, three years after he was elected, I now know Labour made the right choice and picked the right Miliband.

What Brighton and the country saw today wasn’t socialism, a return to the 70s, a union manifesto, the same old Labour (some of the Conservative criticisms I spotted) but common sense.

Why can’t the big six energy companies, whose profits are in the billions, take a price freeze for 20 months to ease the burden on home-owners.

Why can’t we build houses? Why can’t young people aged 16 help decide on the nation’s Government? Why should un-used land remain un-used land?

Commentators have said there was no mention of Clegg and the Liberal Democrats and they are right, but Miliband nicked their fairness theme good and proper!

Let’s make this energy freeze clear, it’s a freeze from May 2015 until December 31 2016, what happens after that god only knows but Miliband didn’t stand there and promise prizes would be fixed forever.

It’s about putting money in people’s pocket and could be nothing more than an election bribe, Conservatives will do everything to get you on a cheap tariff, Labour will ensure you pay that tariff for a fixed period.

On voting, politicians talk every day about engaging young people in politics, Miliband has suggested actually doing something about it.

On forcing people to give up land they own for development, well look at the derelict buildings in your town, ask yourself, could something be done with it?

The Conservatives have introduced a mortgage scheme making it easier to buy a home, Labour suggest building new homes and getting the UKs flagging construction industry moving.

There is some flesh on those bones now, it’s a good start and certainly the mention of ‘My Government’ was sporadic and far from presumptious.

And the macho cabal...I mean challenges to the Prime Minister were clever, Mr Cameron now either has to answer back and risk being accused of having nothing to say re policies or risk saying nothing and being accused of backing away.

Labour have cleverly took away a lot of attack weapons from the Prime Minister and Chancellor George Osborne this week and created an impression they could form the next Government.

But, having made the weather, Miliband and his team must ensure they make it rain on the Prime Minister every day from now until May 6, 2015 – the date of the next General Election.

If they don’t then Ed may have to grab an umbrella himself and prepare for a deluge....

Sunday, 15 September 2013

Ashcroft poll highlights PM's problem

POLITICAL sage Lord Ashcroft has delivered another piece of enthralling research, this time on 40 key marginals across the UK.

A total of 32 seats are narrowly held by the Conservatives over Labour, eight by them over coalition partners the Liberal Democrats.

The good news for Mr Cameron is that the Tories will hold those eight seats from their Liberal Democrat partners.

The bad is Labour would take the 32 seats AND a further 66 should the party notch up the 8.5 per cent swing Ashcroft has found in these marginals, enough to put Ed Miliband in Downing Street with no need for deals...

But this is no 1997 landslide in the making, more chronically worrying for Mr Cameron is Labour is so strong in these marginals because the Conservative vote has jumped ship to UKIP with Lord Ashcroft recording a rise in eight points since in the Farage vote since 2010.

In my professional life (professional? me? lol) I saw first hand the UKIP threat covering the local elections in Worcestershire in May. While UKIP did not win a seat in my patch they reduced some pretty hefty Tory majorities almost to dust.

They even kicked Tory councillors out in some parts of the county and there's the rub for the Conservatives. Accept UKIP is a problem for predominatly them to handle, they may yet win in 2015, deny it and they lose.

While Ed Miliband floats along, the Prime Minister would do well to turn the attack away from Labour and on to UKIP to try and tempt his waivering voters back. Strong leadership, real signs the economy is back off its sick bed and a concentration on core Conservative values would help.

A business focused PM, one that looked after the pennies and made people feel wealthier again and Labour are quite possibly knackered.

While I applaud the PM for his gay marriage legislation, that was a second term issue and something rushed into, a charge you can level at Mr Cameron rather a lot since 2010.

And the truth is, he really ought to tell the backbenchers to simply put up or shut up, Major did it with Redwood in 95 and was thrashed in 1997 but Miliband is not proving to be Tony Blair, at the moment.

David Cameron is already the Conservative Prime Minister who lost the unloseable election, will he be the Conservative PM who lost the country to Labour thanks to UKIP?

Thursday, 5 September 2013

In defence of Ed Miliband and Labour

David Aaronovitch's piece in The Times today has convinced me that as far as our national news media is concerned, the 2015 General Election should be shelved in favour of a continued coalition or a Conservative government.
 
For those of you lucky enough not have read it, it is yet another attack on Miliband for taking a position on something.
 
Aaronovitch brands Miliband 'a vulture' and deplores him for not racing to support the Prime Minister's initial view Syrian should be blown to bits.
 
On Syria, there is no doubt Miliband played politics in the sense he knew the Conservative were hardly fully united behind their leader.
 
One of the roles of the opposition is to make the incumbent Prime Minister look weak and feeble, if you need proof look at at the sustained assault on Major by Blair for three years.
 
But Miliband has to define himself as leader, many in the UK think of Labour in relation to Iraq, is there anything wrong with a Labour leader urging restraint and diplomacy?
 
We have no CATEGORICAL proof Assad gassed his own people and we do not know what the tyrant would do in the event of any strike against the country.
 
Could he fire on Israel? Would Israel then retaliate? How would Iran respond? - can you see how quickly one strike against Assad could trigger even more tension in an already heated Middle East.
 
But Aaronovitch's piece is no surprise, Miliband simply cannot win with anyone in the national media at the moment.
  • He doesn't take a position on something – we are told we don't know what he stands for
  • He takes a position on something – he's not a natural leader, he is so wrong etc
On breaking Labour's historic link to the unions, Miliband proposed a change to let workers opt in rather than be forced to see some of their subscription go to the party.
 
Modern idea for modern and austere times, there may be people in unions who don't actually support Labour, so why should they help fund them?
 
But what did we hear, oh it will never work, Miliband won't do it he was voted in by the unions, etc.
 
And of course the economy, Tories blame Labour for reckless spending while in office (Conservative Party under Cameron supported Labour's spending plans until 2008).
 
I won't pretend I agree with everything Miliband has done, his rampant support for Leveson and closeness to Hacked Off annoy me.
 
I am also one of those who feel Alistair Darling must be brought back as Chancellor next year to add experience to the Shadow Cabinet.
 
And the party conference this year should not be about vision and hope, it needs to give a first glimpse of a future Government.
 
A 'vulture' then? No, just the leader of the opposition trying to end this cycle of long periods of opposition once a party has been kicked out of Government.

Tuesday, 28 May 2013

Labour’s biggest challenge? Making the voters forget!

A lot has been said and written about Ed Miliband failing to take Labour into a 15, 20 even 25 point lead in the polls considering the economy is in the toilet under a Government which lurches from crisis to crisis.

They have no policies, Ed is not credible, it’s all their fault the economy is in such a bad state and Iraq are the main sticks to beat the party with.

But it’s nothing as broad. Driving home from Walsall at the weekend, I caught the excellent Pienaar’s Politics on Radio Five Live which featured the pollster Peter Kellner from YouGov.

Not only was there a engrossing political debate but Mr Kellner absolutely nailed the party’s biggest issue and one it will have to address before 2015 – the voters themselves.

Labour are being largely ignored, according to Kellner, because the electorate kicked them out in 2010 and asked them to ‘go play outside for a bit’ while they met their new Government.

And there is Ed’s biggest headache, how does he break with recent political history and ask to be let back into the house with the big black door?

Not since the 70s has British politics let the opposition back into power, the UK voters are fair-minded to give their Government’s a good spell in power.

Labour had 13 years up to 2010, the Conservatives had 18 years from 1979 to 1997 and 11 years from 1951 to 1964.

After a six year spell in office, Harold Wilson was ejected as Labour PM in 1970 but was back thanks to two general elections in 1974 only to lose to Thatcher in 79.

Before he even can talk about the mistakes of the past and the vision of the future, Ed actually has to get the voters listening to a party they asked to leave just three years ago.

Crack it and he can start measuring the curtains for Downing Street now, the Government is that vulnerable.

If people are still feeling the squeeze on their wages and at the supermarket two years from now, then and only then will the voters turn around and say: “So Mr Milliband, tell us more about these ideas....”

If they aren’t, then perhaps the best he can hope for is another hung parliament with Labour as the largest party and a deal with a weakened Liberal Democrats.

Labour MP Michael Dugher delivered the best line on the party’s lack of an economic plan though when he said: “We don’t know where the economy will be in two year’s time.”

Something Dugher’s former rival for the Doncaster North seat ought to repeat over and over again.

Maybe then the voters will listen Ed?

Tuesday, 21 May 2013

Rebel, Rebel – The Tories are a mess


'Infamy, infamy – they've all got it in for me', a classic comedy line but something our Prime Minister may have been thinking as he slumped in front of the television last night.

Because it looks like, whether now or in 2015, the Conservative Party and David Cameron are heading for a divorce and ironically it could be legislation about gay marriage which ends it all.

Electoral suicide in my opinion but for the first time last night I kind of understood why the rebels are well......so rebellious.

Cameron appears to be lurching from one policy to another, we will have a referendum but hey let's negotiate our position first turned into yes we will have a referendum.

Gay marriage, while an important issue, was not in any party manifesto in 2010 but now is a cornerstone of Conservative Party policy.

Add to that the u-turns, the backtracking and the embarrassing 'swivel eyed loons' comment about party members and well our Government is in rather a state.

But the seeds of this were planted back in 2010 when Cameron 'lost' an impossible to lose election against Gordon Brown.

Cameron needed a coalition to take the Conservatives back into power and deep down, those on the right of the party did and always will resent him for it.

The backbenchers now see a Conservative Prime Minister that has to run everything past his Lib Dem deputy despite that party making up 1/6th of the Government benches.

And they hate it, what's more they now hate Cameron and are smelling his blood. Rebellion after rebellion is taking place and even worse for the PM, he now needs Labour's help to get things done.

I suspect many of those backbenchers would have preferred Cameron to go it alone after 2010 with a winter election if it proved impossible – something which could have secured him a small, albeit workable majority.

When he didn't, I suspect many in the party wanted strong leadership and a pat on the head for the Liberal Democrats not joint working – Dave needed to tell Nick he only brought so much to the party.

The problem for Cameron is he did neither and now, with the economy still fast asleep, Her Majesty's Government already looks spent.....three years into the Parliament.

Now the rebels are energised they face a choice, rebel and weaken the PM so much and leave the Tories with no chance in 2015 (See Major and the run up to the 1997 election for a fuller explanation).

Or do they gather, force a no confidence vote in the Prime Minister, depose him and install a new leader who will speak to their values, drag defectors back from UKIP and shore up the party's vote.

It's a huge gamble as any new leader would have to learn from Gordon Brown's mistake and call a General Election or risk being viewed as another unelected Prime Minister.

But after the weekend the Tories have had, the rebels might now want to roll the dice and take their chance......

Monday, 13 May 2013

Miliband needs to be principled.....and abstain from EU vote


On Wednesday, Conservative rebels will force a vote expressing 'regret' there was no pledge for a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU in last week's Queen's Speech.

It's a vote which could see more than 100 Tory MPs rebel and could see the Government lose in an embarrassing manner.

If Labour backs the Government and Ed Miliband's decision not to offer an EU referendum - the Government will win the vote and spare Cameron from embarrassment.

However, rather than playing politics, Miliband ought to instruct his MPs to ABSTAIN from the vote on the grounds that no competent Government should ever vote against its own Queen's Speech.

By suggesting this vote, the Tory rebels are effectively suggesting they have no confidence in the Prime Minister but are too cowardly to challenge his leadership.

They paint the vote as an attempt to thwart UKIP's rise to electoral prominence, the truth is many on the backbenches simply do not like David Cameron's Conservative Party.

There is nothing within this Tory civil war for Labour or Ed Miliband – he and the party should refuse to vote and let the Tories beat themselves up.

Miliband should not be weak and ride to the Prime Minister's rescue, he should stand at the dispatch box and simply say 'Your problem, you need to fix it'.

I believe Miliband is right, the EU issue is not as big as the Conservatives are making out – I would much rather see our economy thrive, homes being built and jobs being created.

Yes we need to look at our relationship and mention we quite like dealing with the US and would only be to happy to move our pound over the pond if necessary.

But total withdrawal? Nope, it's always better to be in the tent p****** out than on the outside p****** in.

The EU knows what we bring to the table and deep down they would agree to anything if push came to shove.

This is yet another open goal for Miliband to look like a Prime Minister in waiting - saving Major was never on Blair's to do list, he let him drown in the anti EU flood.

Take a stand Ed, refuse to back efforts to vote against the Government's legislative programme for the year ahead and the sovereignty of Parliament and don't prop up the Government.

Cameron is on the ropes with this one, he's done what the rebels wanted by suggesting an EU referendum yet they still are after him.

While he attempts to avoid being knocked to the canvas, talk about the real issues Ed – who knows you might have your hand raised in victory sooner than you think.......

Friday, 3 May 2013

Farage throws Cameron a ticking time bomb

Well that was fun, an electoral party which saw these purple folks gatecrash and drink all the beer and upset the regular guests.
Yes UKIP came, saw and my word didn't they conquer? Kicking out Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems all over England.
And what did our Prime Minister do? Immediately said you couldn't abused anyone who voted UKIP and he would listen to the message the voters sent.
Great......except David Cameron has spent the past 18 months, erm abusing UKIP and using words such as 'fruitcakes'.
The truth is while UKIP have hived votes off all three parties, they threaten the Tories the most and that is why Mr Cameron has turned on the charm.
Except it maybe too late, UKIP have seized on large amounts of Tory voters who want the policies of Thatcher and Major not the hug a hoodie warmth of Cameron.
It's a powerful weapon, does Cameron move the party to the right and win those votes back but risk conceding election winning centre ground to Labour?
Or does he stand his ground, reform the party and potentially see the Conservatives go through their own Liberal/SDP divorce and see the Conservatives plunged into the electoral wilderness?
The truth is there maybe no right answer, Cameron is facing the firing squad between now and 2015 and Farage is one of those holding a pistol.
Meanwhile over in the red corner, Ed Miliband may have chuckled at the situation while smoothing out more dents in the party's local machine.
No one will pretend it was a great day for Labour, it wasn't. But when you look at the carcrash the party had four years ago getting almost 300 seats back is a boost if not the keys to Downing Street.
But I suspect that's Labour's approach, quietly repair the damage from 2005-2010 while the Tories and UKIP have a fight.
It helps that a lot of seats were in the south, because if he plays it right Ed can really start showcasing this 'One Nation Labour' idea.
And where did Ed spend his day? Hastings! Labour got seats there as well.....
In time we will realise election 2013 was about Labour regaining ground in county councils controlled by the Tories.
Judging on that alone, the party had a very good day! Miliband is showing bravery in spending so much time in Tory areas such as Sussex and Kent.
If the PM was to do the same and offer an EU referendum next summer he himself could be the man with the golden gun, the one who could wound UKIP, perhaps fatally.....
If he ignores UKIP though, he might find the removal men in Downing Street a lot sooner than May 2015.