No Deal will be a failure of state, not of the voters

GIVEN how often the story changes this blog could date very quickly. However much of what you will read here I am afraid is true and a sad indictment on both sides of this mess.

If it comes to pass then a ‘No Deal’ Brexit is not the fault of me or 16 odd million remain voters nor the ‘mainstream media’, no Emmanuel Macron or Angela Merkel. It’s a failure of statecraft on both sides of the table.

Having called a referendum, former Prime Minister David Cameron should have instructed the Cabinet Secretary to prepare a briefing paper to outline just what a departure from the EU would actually involve. It may never have seen the light of day but would have hugely informed our clueless political class.

Instead he walked away the next morning in a ‘not my fault, guv’ sort of way, sulking that a majority of voters hadn’t listened to a Prime Minister with a thin majority.

His replacement walked into Downing Street and there on the cabinet table was a blank sheet of paper just with Brexit scrawled at the top.

At no point since June 23 has any Prime Minister defined just what Brexit meant. Hard-working voters on all sides were just told ‘Brexit means Brexit and we’re going to make the best of it’. A more vacuous statement you’ll struggle to find…

The lack of a defined vision has poured into the negotiations, the British side saying here’s what we want and you’ll jolly well agree and the EU pointing out that we can’t keep the benefits if we want to leave the club.

A well-briefed Government would have seen many of the red flags as far back as 2016 – on Northern Ireland, on fishing, on borders, trade etc.

Three and a half years to be proactive and cut through the tape ourselves rather than wait to be handed the scissors.

It would have also allowed room for realpolitik where the Government could have made some bold offers to the European Union and moved the emphasis on Brussels to compromise.

Instead we argued among ourselves, wasted hundreds of hours in Parliament and still to this day think we hold all the cards, we hold none.

Under the current incumbent of Number 10, the Government’s policy seems to be bluster, bullshit and braggadocio – any failure will solely down to the EU and not poor old Boris.

It won’t, there will be no winners from No Deal. 

That includes in the European Union, while it’s perfectly understandable they have stuck firm to the principles of the constitution for member states there is a real stubbornness emerging in recent days.

Barnier et al appear to have a developed a weird form of Stockholm Syndrome where they appear to identify with their captors. He and the bloc do not appear to understand that in leaving Britain has no interest in protecting the member states, it doesn’t have to.

Access is sought to our waters to fish in the same breath as we are being told we cannot access EU member benefits.

Dangerously it also appears Brussels doesn’t think the UK will ever pull the pin on ‘No Deal’ – while the last few years appears to back that judgement it’s a frightening assumption to have.

No side wants to ‘give in’ out of sheer selfish greed. Our Government doesn’t want to concede ground for fear of Farage but is cautious of the impact of leaving without a deal in this Covid climate.

The EU has a deep fear the British will make a success of things and set the bar accordingly to try and ensure that didn’t happen. Success in London could spark itchy feet in Rome, Madrid and Athens. But it also knows Britain on its doorstep would be a welcome trade partner for millions of businesses across the bloc.

Whatever your opinion I do urge you to listen to the excellent Ros Atkins here https://twitter.com/i/status/1336793564165124096 who explains just why sealing the deal is proving somewhat of a challenge.

Brexit is nothing more than a political football now

BREXIT may well be doomed.

Why? Because every single Member of Parliament has failed to learn the lessons of the referendum vote in 2016 when, free of party politics, the electorate delivered the proverbial v-sign to our elected MPs.

A vote to leave the European Union gave Tories and Labour votes the chance to give Westminster a kicking without costing their party the chance to form a Government.

It was the biggest democratic mandate ever given yet those in power at the time and even now have failed to grasp its importance and significance.

The margin of victory was just 1.3million votes, which any Prime Minister ought to have recognised would provoke strong feelings on the losing side.

In delivering Brexit, the British Prime Minister ought to have found a course to take every rational thinking member of this country forward.

A strategy of delivering the outcome the majority won, while ensuring the sensible concerns of remainers were met would have seen far less problems.

But there lies the problem, thanks the unique talents of David Cameron, we only designed half a referendum. People were asked to leave or remain but beyond that it’s been open to interpretation.

Had someone with a brain been in charge in Downing Street, a two-step referendum ought to have been held in the event of a leave vote.

Having asked the people once, asking them which departure gate they wished to leave from was the next sensible move.

Instead all we have is a giant political football. The Prime Minister gets the ball, heads towards the goal of October 31 to cheers from the crowd.

But wait he comes the opposition with a two-footed lunge to steal the ball, to stop a no-deal result to great cheers.

All the while though the match goes into extra,extra,extra,extra time with no sign of a result, MPs enjoy their little victories, we the voters sink our heads further into the our hands.

Why? Because no-one in Parliament wants to blow the final whistle.

Brits are a cautious people, we don’t take bold risks – take a look at our elected Governments in the last century, either the red team or the blue team!

No Deal may deliver a result but it will infuriate large sections of the crowd and if it goes wrong it will only strengthen the EU’s hand should we ever be forced back to the table.

Any extension only provokes the agony, frankly people are bored of this now. The country becomes more and more fractured the longer this goes on, delays are simply tiresome.

Revoking would infuriate hard working Brits who voted in good faith only to be disgustingly branded racist and xenophobic for the past three years.

As far as I can see, any Government now has three routes out but all of them won’t be taken on by 650 selfish career hungry individuals who simply don’t understand how angry this country is.

Firstly, admit defeat and say Parliament won’t back anything so we are going to leave without a deal.

Next is to bring back the withdrawal agreement, accept it despite its litany of flaws and pass it so at least we leave on October 31.

Finally, a Conservative Prime Minister needs to admit the party has failed to deliver on the mandate
given by the people, that no deal would be too big a risk and Article 50 would be revoked to ‘stop the clock’.

It would destroy the party but shed no tears, the Conservatives opened up Pandora’s Box, they’ve never been able to close the lid.

Where's my country gone?

THE CRAZY people behind South Park dreamt up an episode in 2016 entitled ‘Where’s my Country Gone?’ which ripped into illegal immigration, the rise of the alt-right and the problems of political correctness.

Like most things on South Park you laugh (yes I am that juvenile!) but move on. But increasingly I now am asking myself, ‘Where has my country gone’.

The Britain of 2017 looks increasingly unfamiliar to me. Gone is compassion, replaced with hate and vengefulness. Tolerance and decency are packing their bags and heading for the airport while democracy is now a dirty word.

We’ve learned today any ‘unskilled’ EU migrants will be told to shove off post March 2019 in the latest horrid chapter from the Book of Brexit.

Let me declare I voted to remain but also respect democracy so understand we are leaving. But does it have to be like this?

Why are we lecturing the EU? Why are we closing our borders to people who genuinely want to come here to work? Why are we trying to revive the days of Empire?

Most EU migrants who come to the UK do so to get a job, settle down and raise a family. It’s the opposite to what a large portion of Brits do, retire to a foreign land.

One group pays into the country in taxes, National Insurance contributions and to the overall economy. The other does the square root of bugger all – sorry folks but you know which is which….

Surely instead of throwing a maternity until full of babies out in a sea of bath water, we could have just tightened up our immigration policies? Why are we taking such drastic steps?

Immigration is not a dirty word, we live in a world where freedom of movement is a real privilege. But equally we cannot expect other countries to house British people retiring to a life in the sun if we aren’t prepared to accept hard-working natives from their land.

That’s not fair. But then again, those in charge of the agenda in 2017 UK don’t do fairness, they do hectoring, lectures and abuse.

As Paul Dacre’s Daily Mail opined in June, those who oppose Brexit are ‘enemies of the people’, ‘saboteurs’ and don’t respect democracy.

It’s a mantra repeated by Conservative and Labour MPs who dream of nothing more than a Britain free from the EU and will do anything to secure that exit.

From Boris Johnson’s lies (£350million for the NHS) to Gisela Stuart running away from the people of Edgbaston, the Brexiteers lied their way to glory. If it had happened in any other country we’d be the first to call it corrupt….

But time and time again if Brexit is threatened the dark murmurings begin and let’s face it, the Prime Minister is being held hostage in Downing Street by rampant Brexiteers with the warning to deliver our exit or else.

What has happened to my country??

Tories will regret stepping back in time

"We're leaving Downing Street for the last time," no not the late Baroness Thatcher but the words David Cameron will be using following a leadership coup despite his successful EU referendum campaign.

A prediction yes, but the odds on this happening should be shorter than Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister.

Just like Thatcher the storm clouds are circling round the Prime Minister. Despite being a majority winning Tory leader and despite winning reforms in the EU once again it seems the Tories want to throw it all down the toilet over Europe.

The comparisons are endless, a majority winning Tory premier, a Labour opposition not really bidding for power under a polarising leader, an uncertain economy. We may as well be back in 1990!

One wonders who will stick the final knife in aka the late Geoffrey Howe. Perhaps / sharp stiletto from Theresa May?

The Out brigade spent the weekend whining that Dave should stop being so nasty and hurtful about them. This despite the Prime Minister actively allowing members of his own cabinet to campaign for an 'out' vote....

They didn't seek to dismiss stories of a leadership challenge though? Why? Because figures like Boris Johnson know this campaign will be enough to bring down Cameron and start afresh with a more 'Conservative' leader.

The Outers have a back up in plan just in case they lose the referendum. They will oust Cameron instead as punishment , why else would Boris tell the world he wants out but what a marvellous job the PM did in Brussels?

If he really wanted out he would surely be at the forefront of the campaign for Britain to leave the EU? Not to one side letting messers Farage and Galloway hog centre stage.

Either way Cameron's time as PM can now be measured in months not years, his only hope is the Tory grassroots find the tactics of Johnson et al unpalatable and Boris's hopes end up crushed under a London bendy bus.

Allowing the stage to clear for a new face someone who wanted out but stayed loyal to the Prime Minister. And who is a proud Thatcherite....Prime Minister Sajid Javid anyone? 

Carswell defection shows Tory troubles

DOUGLAS Carswell's defection to UKIP has highlighted the very real problem for David Cameron and the Conservatives.

The darling of the backbenches, Carswell has been a thorn in Cameron's side for a while now.

Peace seem to have broken out when Carswell appeared to back the PM over his pledge for an in/out referendum should the Tories win in 2015.

However, something has changed in Carswell's mind. Either he thinks the party won't win in 2015 so has decided to jump now or this is some sort of weird stalking horse effort.

If Carswell wins for UKIP in Clacton, it could pave the way for other Tories to follow suit and persuade more traditional Tories to abandon the party for UKIP.

You might expect the Tories to respond, remind voters Carswell appears to have reneged on his backing for the party.

Instead the attack dogs were sent out online to attack Ed Miliband for 'not saying anything about Rotherham'.

We'll ignore the fact the party has called for the PCC to step down, that senior council figure has already resigned with more expected to follow....

And that sums up the Tories, when there is discord within the party, they lash out at Miliband and Labour. Carswell didn't defect because of Miliband, he defected because of Cameron and Osborne.

The killer line in Carswell's interview on Sky was the use of the word 'honest' in relation to Miliband's position on the EU.

The implication being Cameron isn't and that, whether the Tories want to admit it or not, is the Tories biggest headache.

If Cameron doesn't 'get it', then I'm afraid his dreams of an EU referendum will turn to dust.

PM in a muddle of his own making

IT'S not been the best week for the Prime Minister.

Following Andy Coulson being found guilty of conspiring to hack phones on Tuesday, the PM upset most of his European friends on Friday and heard how a former advisor had been sent to prison on child porn charges.

In a political world where all we hear is how bad Miliband is and how if he was doing better the Tories would be toast, I pose the opposite question, wouldn't the Tories be solid certainties for a majority in 2015 if Cameron was better at his job?

Think about it, the economy is slowing rousing itself from it's slumber, voters are warming to the PM's EU reform talk and the party is staying close to Labour in the polls.

Yet time after time Cameron is either guilty of or presides over cock ups which once again make you think about a change of owner of Number 10 in May 2015.

The Prime Minister of the UK should know a trial is not concluded until a verdict was given on all charges. Yet Cameron raced to get on TV on Tuesday to besmirch Coulson while a jury was still considering some of the charges.

Surely someone close to Cameron should have pulled him to one side and advised it was better to wait for all verdicts before he spoke out. To some it would have looked cowardly but in the long term it would have created an air of professionalism lacking in Downing Street in recent weeks.

And on the EU, Cameron is a hopeless diplomat, emboldened by his one triumph of getting the UK's contribution to the bloated organisation reduced, the PM tried a Thatcherite approach on Friday.

The difference is most of the EU leaders were scared stiff of Maggie, with Cameron they point and laugh and gently remind him he has to face his voters next year.

Truth be told the EU values our opinion about as much as I care for salad, Merkel and co will only listen if the PM returns to Brussels next June/July with a parliamentary majority and they no an in/out EU referendum is very much possible.

The PM thinks this tough talking on Europe wins votes, it does but only if you succeed. Failure's like yesterday only help Farage and UKIP hoover up more Tory votes.

Honestly, Cameron is a very good Prime Minister but when he loses next year it won't be because Labour won, it will be because he lost by making too many mistakes.

By May 2015, David Cameron might not only have lost the unlosable election of 2010 but he might lose his job to a gentleman not many people actually want to see in Number 10.

Newark – Farage’s great gamble?

Will he or won’t he? Will Nigel Farage stand and win the safe Conservative seat of Newark, give David Cameron a massive headache and rock British politics.

Or will he stand, lose and next year we will go back to talk about Labour, Conservative and the Liberal Democrats.

That’s the dilemma facing the UKIP leader tonight, stand and win and he grabs a paintbrush and to paint a new political picture from the UK.

Lose and we might all go, ‘well they aren’t up to much are they?’ – a huge bodyblow less than 12 months from the General Election.

Or to borrow from Blair, is there a third way? Could the party have Diane James line up for the seat, fresh from a very good performance in Eastleigh?

She is an incredibly articulate woman, a plain speaker and, unlike some, does not have any faux pas to hush up.

Farage could then take to the airwaves, explain he wants to focus on UKIP’s Euro election campaign and doesn’t want to be ‘part-time candidate’ and ‘the people of Newark deserve more’.

Unlike Eastleigh, Newark is safe Tory country giving UKIP a clear run at the Conservative vote, Farage can take the temperature of things are going because if she loses, well it was a 16,000 seat majority….

If she wins, Cameron gets a bloody nose and, allied to predicted poor Euro results, the Prime Minister could find himself distracted in the weeks ahead.

And wouldn’t Farage fancy a seat in the Home Counties anyway and the glory of beating the Conservatives on General Election night itself?

The Tories aren't just playing on Miliband's pitch, they are playing his game

George Osborne has been warning Tories 'not to play on Miliband's pitch' when it comes to the living standards battle being fought by Labour at the moment.

 

Yet his comments talking about how the Government 'needs to step in to create the rules of the market' sounds remarkably like Ed Miliband's conference speech.

 

Remember that? the speech labelled 'marxist', 'left wing' and something which would 'drag Britain back to the 1970s' according to the Prime Minister and his Chancellor.

 

Since then, the Tories have not only been forced on to the pitch but now are playing Labour's game.

 

The energy price freeze? A 'con' according to the Tories, but something they now have to find an answer to.

 

Now they are tackling pay day lenders like Wonga, finally listening to Labour MPs like Stella Creasy.

 

The masked even slipped from Jeremy Hunt on Question Time last Thursday when he said they were clearing up the mess left by the 'banking crisis' in 2008.

 

Funny, I thought they were clearing up Labour's mess.....

 

Miliband is being clever, some of the conference speech may well have been froth and bubble but most of it has resonated.

 

It's a source of anger to the Tories that people are listening to the opposition again when the economy is improving and people are not focusing on that.

 

Logically, Labour should be sinking now, a leader who isn't exactly battering Cameron as Blair did Major and with only a small amount of policy on the board with a Shadow Chancellor who will

forever be linked to the last Labour Government.

 

None of that will change between now and 2015 as Miliband simply cannot swing for the fence as hard as Blair did.

 

But Cameron is getting increasingly hamstrung by events, I have noticed in recent weeks the Conservative supporting papers are beginning to get very hostile, a reaction to Cameron waiving

through the Royal Charter on press regulation?

 

His appointment of Lynton Crosby could prove to be a mistake, the British people want a sense of fair play in their politics, if the Government get dirty then many may vote Labour in protest.

 

And the UKIP factor - I have previously called them the UK's Tea Party and the 'Farage Factor' is clear. Cameron is cutting the green 'crap' out of his Conservative Party and talking a lot about immigration and the EU, to tempt UKIP voters back.

 

Has the boat sailed though? I suspect for many 'older' Tory voters it has, many will vote for UKIP quite simply because its the Conservative Party they knew in the 80s.

 

And should Cameron waive through HS2, the line will go through the fields and back gardens of his core home counties vote, enough for many to vote UKIP I suspect.

 

Hope? Hell yes, despite Nick Harvey suggesting 2015 is already decided, Cameron could yet pull off victory if the economy gets better, inflation comes down and more money is in our pockets.

 

However he needs party unity, a warmer press than he is getting at the moment and to get off Miliband's pitch.

 

The Autumn Statement is a good chance to unveil a whole new ball game for Labour to match.....

Cameron should attack UKIP, the UK Tea Party

'We want our country back' boomed Nigel Farage at UKIPs annual conference.

Aside from the obvious falsehood that the country has not gone anywhere, it nevertheless remains a statement of intent.

Farage is shrewd, canny and clever and talks about taking votes from all parties. The truth is he wants to do to the Conservative Party what the Tea Party did to the Republican Party in the United States, suck them dry and become a real voice on the right of British politics.

The Tea Party lured so many 'traditional' Republican voters that the GOP has picked extremely right wing candidates in last two Presidential races in a bid to secure the Tea Party votes.

Not brilliant when they are up against a mixed race president who shattered many social stigmas when he won the presidency.

The result is a Republican party which eschews candidates like Chris Christie and promotes the likes of Romney, Perry and Herman Cain.

It’s an influence which is now keenly felt on Capitol Hill and UKIP would love to recreate that at Westminster.

A pact is about likely as snow in the Mojave Desert - Farage doesn’t like Cameron’s brand of Conservatism and Cameron doesn’t like Farage and UKIP period.

So 2015 there will be a choice for Conservative leaning voters – the Tories or UKIP. Do they abandon a Conservative Party they don’t like under Cameron and install a Labour Prime Minister or back Cameron and risk being alienated even further.

And that’s why I think Cameron was understated at his party conference this week, safe and steady speech stressing the need for a safe and steady hand on the economy.

Interestingly there was a strong focus on backing big business by attacking Labour’s plans to halt the Corporation Tax and an admission about the furore over gay marriage – a gentle prod back at UKIP.

The Prime Minister may have looked down the camera and not in the hall but I think it was a speech designed to speak to lifelong Tory voters.

If Cameron can persuade them he embodies many classic Tory values as well as those of 21^st century Britain he may see off the UKIP threat.

If he can’t then he may go down in history as the Conservative PM who failed to win what many considered an easy election in 2010 and then lost because of a party with no MPs at Westminster currently.

Rebel, Rebel – The Tories are a mess

'Infamy, infamy – they've all got it in for me', a classic comedy line but something our Prime Minister may have been thinking as he slumped in front of the television last night.

Because it looks like, whether now or in 2015, the Conservative Party and David Cameron are heading for a divorce and ironically it could be legislation about gay marriage which ends it all.

Electoral suicide in my opinion but for the first time last night I kind of understood why the rebels are well......so rebellious.

Cameron appears to be lurching from one policy to another, we will have a referendum but hey let's negotiate our position first turned into yes we will have a referendum.

Gay marriage, while an important issue, was not in any party manifesto in 2010 but now is a cornerstone of Conservative Party policy.

Add to that the u-turns, the backtracking and the embarrassing 'swivel eyed loons' comment about party members and well our Government is in rather a state.

But the seeds of this were planted back in 2010 when Cameron 'lost' an impossible to lose election against Gordon Brown.

Cameron needed a coalition to take the Conservatives back into power and deep down, those on the right of the party did and always will resent him for it.

The backbenchers now see a Conservative Prime Minister that has to run everything past his Lib Dem deputy despite that party making up 1/6th of the Government benches.

And they hate it, what's more they now hate Cameron and are smelling his blood. Rebellion after rebellion is taking place and even worse for the PM, he now needs Labour's help to get things done.

I suspect many of those backbenchers would have preferred Cameron to go it alone after 2010 with a winter election if it proved impossible – something which could have secured him a small, albeit workable majority.

When he didn't, I suspect many in the party wanted strong leadership and a pat on the head for the Liberal Democrats not joint working – Dave needed to tell Nick he only brought so much to the party.

The problem for Cameron is he did neither and now, with the economy still fast asleep, Her Majesty's Government already looks spent.....three years into the Parliament.

Now the rebels are energised they face a choice, rebel and weaken the PM so much and leave the Tories with no chance in 2015 (See Major and the run up to the 1997 election for a fuller explanation).

Or do they gather, force a no confidence vote in the Prime Minister, depose him and install a new leader who will speak to their values, drag defectors back from UKIP and shore up the party's vote.

It's a huge gamble as any new leader would have to learn from Gordon Brown's mistake and call a General Election or risk being viewed as another unelected Prime Minister.

But after the weekend the Tories have had, the rebels might now want to roll the dice and take their chance......

Miliband needs to be principled.....and abstain from EU vote

On Wednesday, Conservative rebels will force a vote expressing 'regret' there was no pledge for a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU in last week's Queen's Speech.

It's a vote which could see more than 100 Tory MPs rebel and could see the Government lose in an embarrassing manner.

If Labour backs the Government and Ed Miliband's decision not to offer an EU referendum - the Government will win the vote and spare Cameron from embarrassment.

However, rather than playing politics, Miliband ought to instruct his MPs to ABSTAIN from the vote on the grounds that no competent Government should ever vote against its own Queen's Speech.

By suggesting this vote, the Tory rebels are effectively suggesting they have no confidence in the Prime Minister but are too cowardly to challenge his leadership.

They paint the vote as an attempt to thwart UKIP's rise to electoral prominence, the truth is many on the backbenches simply do not like David Cameron's Conservative Party.

There is nothing within this Tory civil war for Labour or Ed Miliband – he and the party should refuse to vote and let the Tories beat themselves up.

Miliband should not be weak and ride to the Prime Minister's rescue, he should stand at the dispatch box and simply say 'Your problem, you need to fix it'.

I believe Miliband is right, the EU issue is not as big as the Conservatives are making out – I would much rather see our economy thrive, homes being built and jobs being created.

Yes we need to look at our relationship and mention we quite like dealing with the US and would only be to happy to move our pound over the pond if necessary.

But total withdrawal? Nope, it's always better to be in the tent p****** out than on the outside p****** in.

The EU knows what we bring to the table and deep down they would agree to anything if push came to shove.

This is yet another open goal for Miliband to look like a Prime Minister in waiting - saving Major was never on Blair's to do list, he let him drown in the anti EU flood.

Take a stand Ed, refuse to back efforts to vote against the Government's legislative programme for the year ahead and the sovereignty of Parliament and don't prop up the Government.

Cameron is on the ropes with this one, he's done what the rebels wanted by suggesting an EU referendum yet they still are after him.

While he attempts to avoid being knocked to the canvas, talk about the real issues Ed – who knows you might have your hand raised in victory sooner than you think.......