PM won't serve a third term...he's got to win a second first!

A PUZZLING annoucement from the Prime Minister during an 'at home' interview with the BBC, he won't serve a third term at Number 10...

Puzzling because of it's timing, why on earth would you on the verge of the election campaign proper say you only want the job for one more term then you'll be off?

Puzzling because recent history shows PMs who set out their future plans tend to limp along until the end, see Tony Blair after he said in 2004 he wouldn't serve a full third term. He then faced mutiny and uncertainty regularly until he eventually departed in 2007.

Puzzling because the Conservatives love a good old bunfight over the leadership, a vote for the Tories in May will gurantee lots of jostling for position and in-fighting, particularly as Cameron named his chosen three; May, Osborne and Boris. Wonder what Sajid Javid and the other 'rising stars' think about his comments.

And puzzling because technically, the PM hasn't won an election yet, either in 2010 or the upcoming poll. His comments, however well intentioned, could be percieved as arrogance from a man who didn't win a majority in 2010.

Put simply the Conservatives are shooting themselves in the foot at every turn, every good sound bite and economic news they have is undone by strategic mistakes.

The Tories ought to be doing better, Labour are led by a man who simply hasn't sealed the deal with his core Labour vote let alone floating voters, the Lib Dems are near enough finished while the UKIP pint has been watered down in recent weeks.

It's as if the Tories don't understand that to obtain a majority Government they need to do better than 2010, a very hard challenge granted but the circumstances are there.

Cameron should have embarked on his 2010 'meet the people' strategy and debated Miliband head to head. Not doing so has render his 'weak' tag on Miliband virutally redundant.

Labour's task now is to weave a narrative which once again labels Cameron arrogant, point out he failed to win a majority in 2010 and question again why he won't debate his record.

If they are successful then Cameron will indeed not serve a third term, he won't get a second either!

General Election TV Debates – The Solution

This is less of a blog, more of an open letter to all the party leaders and to the broadcasters, a solution to your current ‘dilemma’ over the proposed debates.

STRUCTURE – one debate between David Cameron and Ed Miliband and one between Cameron, Miliband and Clegg. Instead of inviting just Farage to the last one, invite him, Natalie Bennett from the Greens and George Galloway from Respect. It’s not beyond podium builders to come up with seven platforms you know!

Every party which is represented in Westminster and could feasibly field candidates in every constituency across the UK would then have a platform.

SCOTLAND, WALES AND NI – For a party very keen to distance itself from the ‘Westminster elite’, the SNP has spent a lot of time demanding to be in the debates. Why? People in England cannot vote for them. Same with Plaid Cymru and the various Northern Ireland parties, should they have a platform? No.

Instead, why not have country specific debates. I mean wasn’t the whole point of the Scottish devolution vote to ensure the Scottish voice was heard. Why not have a debate between the SNP, Scottish Labour, Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Liberal Democrats? Sky ran one the last time and it proved very successful.

Surely the voters in those countries want to know what the various parties are going to do for the country if returned to Westminster? It’s not about exclusion it’s about issues that matter to those in the respective countries are addressed.

AND IF THEY DON’T AGREE – empty chair them, this applies to the PM if he is indeed ‘chicken’ but also call Miliband’s bluff as well. Quite simply if an invited guest doesn’t turn up, leave the podium empty and let the British public draw their own conclusions.

Simple? Yeah pretty much, so is there any chance you lot can get on and sort it out because frankly there are one or two hugely more important issues affecting us at the moment!

Thornberry isn't a snob, she's just stupid

"It's just one of many pictures I've taken on the campaign trail today. However if you're asking my personal opinion I like to think it shows the proud patriotism which exists in our country and what we shouldn't be afraid to embrace."

IF Emily Thornberry had said the above then tonight; she'd still have a job, the headlines would be about another Tory winning a seat for UKIP having defected and maybe some wavering Labour votes would have felt like their party did understand them after all.

Instead she came out with a stupid 'never seen anything like it' (what a flag?) comment, Ed apparently had a fit of pique and Labour look like a mess....again!

I'm not saying I'd do a better job than Labour's press office but my line is a huge improvement on the shambles which has dominated the airwaves all evening.

Truth be told this is just the latest chapter in a catastrophe of errors from a party which ought to be wiping the floor with the Government.

Cast your minds back, if this was 1996 Labour might be contemplating winning a seat like Rochester and Strood but would certainly be heaping pressure on a PM facing losing another by election to a defecting former MP.

David Cameron ought to have gone to be d this evening petrified at another potentially huge defeat and concerned some disgruntled colleagues might decide a change of leader was necessary.

Instead he lays his head thanking Labour for turning down the heat in the political pressure cooker.

To messers Johnson, Burnham, Cooper, Umunna et al - really? Do you really think this is the best your party can do?

Labour's slim chance of a majority has been shrinking for months. Tonight it disappeared, most probably for good.

To lose one MP is careless, to lose two is Reckless

AND another one has gone, this time Mark Reckless ditches the Conservatives for the loving embrace of UKIP.

The Rochester and Strood MP spirited away under the cover of darkness from Westminster to land in Doncaster and be the latest to stand up and put the Prime Minister down on a number of issues.

Timing wise, Nigel Farage has hit the jackpot again. We had the 'surprise' defection with Douglas Carswell, this time it was the 'timed' defection, 3pm Saturday afternoon, just as the Sunday papers were being put together ahead of day one of the Conservative Party Conference.

To call the party management shambolic is an understatement, chief whip Michael Gove appears to be phoning MPs up, asking if they are planning to defect and accepting it when the person (defecting or not) says no.

Where is the bullish party management of opposition? Why is no one getting on the front foot and telling these MPs it would be folly to defect and hammer home the message Cameron is on their side?

Instead the party's approach appears to be sit back, let it happen, smear the defector and laugh that 'jolly old UKIP are being little scoundrels aren't they?'.

Everytime Grant Shapps stands up and says Reckless 'lied and lied and lied' or the Prime Minister calls the move 'illogical' and 'a vote for UKIP is a vote for Ed Miliband' another wavering MP wonders whether he/she should make the leap.

Those feelings will only strengthen if, as expected, Carswell romps back to the House of Commons in UKIP colours on October 8. I imagine those feelings could be overbearing should Reckless do the same sometime in November.

A vote for UKIP is not 'a vote for Ed Miliband' per se. UKIP is rapidly becoming a comfy home for former Tories totally disenfranchised with the current Conservative Party.

If Cameron and his inner circle haven't grasped that yet, they should and quick. Because by the time the Prime Minister approaches the lectern to deliver his final speech to the party before the General Election next year, he may of lost another MP.

The 'maximum impact' defection....

Miliband wasn't inspiring, but he was clever

THE COMMENTARIART has spoken, Miliband was dull, boring and did not look like a Prime Minister in waiting.

They are right in the sense it was dull and boring as a whole but Prime Ministerial? Yes I think so, quiet and unassuming but with more gravitas than the previous 'Quiet Man' Iain Duncan Smith.

What they fail to appreciate is how the speech came across on the news channels, who need soundbites not great long diatribes.

On that Miliband scored big in my opinion, the line about Cameron not lying awake worried about the UK but about UKIP will have hurt and resonated with many voters.

And on Europe, Miliband's attack lines on Cameron would not only resonate with voters but with the Carswell section of the Conservatives who don't believe the Prime Minister is serious about reforming the 

European Union.

He was silly forgetting the deficit and immigration lines from the speech, his memory capacity is admirable but an Autocue is sometimes your best friend.

But those issues are front and centre of UK's voters minds so Miliband will have to talk about it between now and polling day.

Where Miliband was clever was in the use of the NHS, any Labour leader knows if they stroke the NHS, 

the members purr and the Tories cower.

The Mansion Tax - tobacco tax – hedge fund tax policy is economically sound and would provide a great big cash cow for the National Health Service.

As long as the party continues to press ahead with it, that alone should ensure Labour's core vote will at least have to think very hard before crossing to UKIP.

And it's a clever policy, it dares the Conservatives to oppose it knowing full well should they oppose they will be painted as the party of the rich and privileged and not caring about the NHS.

Thanks to the gift that keeps giving that is Grant Shapps, Labour are already ahead as the Conservatives released a poster saying Labour wanted to tax 'your family home'.....I I'd missed all those mansions in inner 

city London and Birmingham!

The criticism of the commentariart surprises me, we need to stop judging the parties on their conferences, a 

social gathering for four days.

I will be judging Cameron, Miliband and Clegg when the Prime Minister dissolves parliament for the election.

Only then should we assess those in the running for the biggest job in the country.

Scotland's vote is last act of a dying Government

THURSDAY will see a nation go to the polls faced with the biggest question asked of an electorate for many a year: Do they wish to break a 300 year old marriage and go it alone?.

There is no doubt the referendum on Scottish independence has been a good thing, it has energised people and got a nation talking about politics and voting.

But whatever the result, this week marks the beginning of the end of David Cameron's time as Prime Minister. Quite simply, the leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party could oversee the end of the union, that's a mistake I doubt even he can come back from.

Perhaps reports of his demise in the aftermath of a Yes vote are a little far-fetched, I doubt the British economy would sustain the news of Scottish independence and the resignation of a Prime Minister within 48 hours of each other!

But it would signal Cameron's time at the top was nearly over, the vultures are circling with Boris looking a shoo-in in Uxbridge and most of the cabinet are Osborne loyalists - leaving the PM with very few friends at the top.

Even Uncle Rupert appears lukewarm in backing the Tories with his hints that independence could be good for Scotland, knowing full well the damage a yes would cause to the Conservative Prime Minister.

David Cameron will become the first PM in history to lose not because the opposition was much more electable (Labour aren't) but because he's just made too many tactical errors.

1) He hasn't managed the coalition well.

Cameron needed Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats in 2010 but what he needed to do from the outset was make it clear, they contributed just 1/6th of the coalition Government and policy would be Conservative-driven.

Instead he has been in thrall to Clegg and let the junior partners get away with a number of statements such as their apparent u-turn on the Bedroom Tax. Instead of putting them on the spot and telling them to vote with their feet, knowing it would send them off the political cliff, he's allowed the Lib Dems the airwaves to try and rewrite history.

2) But ignored his party...

It's no co-incidence his party aren't happy. Conservative backbenchers wanted Tory rule after 13 years away, instead they got a Tory Government watered down with a bit of Lib Dem.

Many want to see him rule properly, but within 12 months the old rivalries spilled out and open rebellion ensured.

3) He shouldn't have introduced fixed term Parliaments

Fixed five year parliament has not worked, the party has begun it's last year of the current cycle with very little ideas, very little enthusiasm and with a reshuffle based on image not talent. Government's in this country only go into the fifth year in a desperate attempt to roll the dice and hope their fortunes change, look at Major in 92 and Brown in 2010.

Rather than five year fixed term, make it compulsory to hold an election every four years. The fortunes of the ruling party do rather improve at the end of four year cycles.

4) He ignored and then didn't grasp the UKIP threat

'Fruitcakes' and 'Loons' were the words used by the Prime Minister to describe Nigel Farage and UKIP....oh how he must regret that now.

Quite simply the PM and his party didn't recognise UKIP began hoovering up traditional Tory votes a long time ago. Farage represents the halcyon days of the Conservatives, big on business, tough on Europe and traditional British values.

He dismissed them until it was too late, now many have gone and won't come back but still Cameron and his team still disrespect UKIP. Cameron should get on the front foot, agree to the debates and agree to Farage taking part and use his considerable oratory skills to take UKIP apart.

If he carries on until May 2015 he will be a lame duck Prime Minister, propped up by a party facing disaster.

However, victory on Thursday could and maybe should be enough for him to change course, call an election and ask people the ultimate question: "Do you really want Ed Miliband as PM?"

Carswell defection shows Tory troubles

DOUGLAS Carswell's defection to UKIP has highlighted the very real problem for David Cameron and the Conservatives.

The darling of the backbenches, Carswell has been a thorn in Cameron's side for a while now.

Peace seem to have broken out when Carswell appeared to back the PM over his pledge for an in/out referendum should the Tories win in 2015.

However, something has changed in Carswell's mind. Either he thinks the party won't win in 2015 so has decided to jump now or this is some sort of weird stalking horse effort.

If Carswell wins for UKIP in Clacton, it could pave the way for other Tories to follow suit and persuade more traditional Tories to abandon the party for UKIP.

You might expect the Tories to respond, remind voters Carswell appears to have reneged on his backing for the party.

Instead the attack dogs were sent out online to attack Ed Miliband for 'not saying anything about Rotherham'.

We'll ignore the fact the party has called for the PCC to step down, that senior council figure has already resigned with more expected to follow....

And that sums up the Tories, when there is discord within the party, they lash out at Miliband and Labour. Carswell didn't defect because of Miliband, he defected because of Cameron and Osborne.

The killer line in Carswell's interview on Sky was the use of the word 'honest' in relation to Miliband's position on the EU.

The implication being Cameron isn't and that, whether the Tories want to admit it or not, is the Tories biggest headache.

If Cameron doesn't 'get it', then I'm afraid his dreams of an EU referendum will turn to dust.

PM in a muddle of his own making

IT'S not been the best week for the Prime Minister.

Following Andy Coulson being found guilty of conspiring to hack phones on Tuesday, the PM upset most of his European friends on Friday and heard how a former advisor had been sent to prison on child porn charges.

In a political world where all we hear is how bad Miliband is and how if he was doing better the Tories would be toast, I pose the opposite question, wouldn't the Tories be solid certainties for a majority in 2015 if Cameron was better at his job?

Think about it, the economy is slowing rousing itself from it's slumber, voters are warming to the PM's EU reform talk and the party is staying close to Labour in the polls.

Yet time after time Cameron is either guilty of or presides over cock ups which once again make you think about a change of owner of Number 10 in May 2015.

The Prime Minister of the UK should know a trial is not concluded until a verdict was given on all charges. Yet Cameron raced to get on TV on Tuesday to besmirch Coulson while a jury was still considering some of the charges.

Surely someone close to Cameron should have pulled him to one side and advised it was better to wait for all verdicts before he spoke out. To some it would have looked cowardly but in the long term it would have created an air of professionalism lacking in Downing Street in recent weeks.

And on the EU, Cameron is a hopeless diplomat, emboldened by his one triumph of getting the UK's contribution to the bloated organisation reduced, the PM tried a Thatcherite approach on Friday.

The difference is most of the EU leaders were scared stiff of Maggie, with Cameron they point and laugh and gently remind him he has to face his voters next year.

Truth be told the EU values our opinion about as much as I care for salad, Merkel and co will only listen if the PM returns to Brussels next June/July with a parliamentary majority and they no an in/out EU referendum is very much possible.

The PM thinks this tough talking on Europe wins votes, it does but only if you succeed. Failure's like yesterday only help Farage and UKIP hoover up more Tory votes.

Honestly, Cameron is a very good Prime Minister but when he loses next year it won't be because Labour won, it will be because he lost by making too many mistakes.

By May 2015, David Cameron might not only have lost the unlosable election of 2010 but he might lose his job to a gentleman not many people actually want to see in Number 10.

Labour won on Thursday, just not well enough

Reading the newspapers and watching the news since Thursday, you would have been forgiven for thinking UKIP had broken all kinds of political records and the Conservatives had made gain after gain.

I’m afraid the truth for the likes of the Murdoch media and those who resent Ed Miliband is Labour won, well in some areas but failed to really go big in others.

The analogy I draw is Labour scored a century on a flat batting wicket but were bowled for 102 when a double hundred could and should have been possible.

But the headlines since Friday morning are frankly bizarre, Labour’s ‘nightmare night’ (they gained 300+ seats) and UKIP’s ‘earthquake’ (gained 150 seats and NO councils).

Those pale in comparison to the analysis offered which says UKIP will deny Labour election victory and will ‘eat into Labour’s core vote’.

Early on Thursday evening, Sunderland was used as the example of how Labour’s core vote was drifting to UKIP. That’s an area where, when all was said and done, Labour recorded 47 per cent of the vote….

The TRUTH is the UKIP threat is very real, very evident but it will impact on Labour AND the Conservatives.

Take a look at Essex on Thursday and Friday, many seats where David Cameron normally doesn’t need to worry about the Tory vote.

By 9am on Friday, Basildon’s Conservative leader had gone claiming his Prime Minister ‘didn’t get it’.

Both Labour and Conservatives need more seats to form a Government next year, but if there core vote is being taken by UKIP, a hung parliament again should be a very real possibility.

That’s why Labour’s performance should not be dismissed, the party gained councils in Croydon, Crawley, Redbridge and Cambridge and virtually wiped out any opposition in Islington and Manchester.

Yes not enough to win power, but a clear sign the party is recovering votes, look at the areas where Labour topped the poll, if this translates next year then Ed Miliband is Prime Minister.

The biggest anomaly at the moment is how will UKIP do next year, all the statistics suggest a good local and Euro performance is usually watered down come General Election.

Britain entered the unknown in 2010, no opinion poll can tell you the result of 2015, but one thing is sure, it’s better to be winning and topping the poll than struggling in second….

The Tories aren't just playing on Miliband's pitch, they are playing his game

George Osborne has been warning Tories 'not to play on Miliband's pitch' when it comes to the living standards battle being fought by Labour at the moment.

 

Yet his comments talking about how the Government 'needs to step in to create the rules of the market' sounds remarkably like Ed Miliband's conference speech.

 

Remember that? the speech labelled 'marxist', 'left wing' and something which would 'drag Britain back to the 1970s' according to the Prime Minister and his Chancellor.

 

Since then, the Tories have not only been forced on to the pitch but now are playing Labour's game.

 

The energy price freeze? A 'con' according to the Tories, but something they now have to find an answer to.

 

Now they are tackling pay day lenders like Wonga, finally listening to Labour MPs like Stella Creasy.

 

The masked even slipped from Jeremy Hunt on Question Time last Thursday when he said they were clearing up the mess left by the 'banking crisis' in 2008.

 

Funny, I thought they were clearing up Labour's mess.....

 

Miliband is being clever, some of the conference speech may well have been froth and bubble but most of it has resonated.

 

It's a source of anger to the Tories that people are listening to the opposition again when the economy is improving and people are not focusing on that.

 

Logically, Labour should be sinking now, a leader who isn't exactly battering Cameron as Blair did Major and with only a small amount of policy on the board with a Shadow Chancellor who will

forever be linked to the last Labour Government.

 

None of that will change between now and 2015 as Miliband simply cannot swing for the fence as hard as Blair did.

 

But Cameron is getting increasingly hamstrung by events, I have noticed in recent weeks the Conservative supporting papers are beginning to get very hostile, a reaction to Cameron waiving

through the Royal Charter on press regulation?

 

His appointment of Lynton Crosby could prove to be a mistake, the British people want a sense of fair play in their politics, if the Government get dirty then many may vote Labour in protest.

 

And the UKIP factor - I have previously called them the UK's Tea Party and the 'Farage Factor' is clear. Cameron is cutting the green 'crap' out of his Conservative Party and talking a lot about immigration and the EU, to tempt UKIP voters back.

 

Has the boat sailed though? I suspect for many 'older' Tory voters it has, many will vote for UKIP quite simply because its the Conservative Party they knew in the 80s.

 

And should Cameron waive through HS2, the line will go through the fields and back gardens of his core home counties vote, enough for many to vote UKIP I suspect.

 

Hope? Hell yes, despite Nick Harvey suggesting 2015 is already decided, Cameron could yet pull off victory if the economy gets better, inflation comes down and more money is in our pockets.

 

However he needs party unity, a warmer press than he is getting at the moment and to get off Miliband's pitch.

 

The Autumn Statement is a good chance to unveil a whole new ball game for Labour to match.....

Cameron should attack UKIP, the UK Tea Party

'We want our country back' boomed Nigel Farage at UKIPs annual conference.

Aside from the obvious falsehood that the country has not gone anywhere, it nevertheless remains a statement of intent.

Farage is shrewd, canny and clever and talks about taking votes from all parties. The truth is he wants to do to the Conservative Party what the Tea Party did to the Republican Party in the United States, suck them dry and become a real voice on the right of British politics.

The Tea Party lured so many 'traditional' Republican voters that the GOP has picked extremely right wing candidates in last two Presidential races in a bid to secure the Tea Party votes.

Not brilliant when they are up against a mixed race president who shattered many social stigmas when he won the presidency.

The result is a Republican party which eschews candidates like Chris Christie and promotes the likes of Romney, Perry and Herman Cain.

It’s an influence which is now keenly felt on Capitol Hill and UKIP would love to recreate that at Westminster.

A pact is about likely as snow in the Mojave Desert - Farage doesn’t like Cameron’s brand of Conservatism and Cameron doesn’t like Farage and UKIP period.

So 2015 there will be a choice for Conservative leaning voters – the Tories or UKIP. Do they abandon a Conservative Party they don’t like under Cameron and install a Labour Prime Minister or back Cameron and risk being alienated even further.

And that’s why I think Cameron was understated at his party conference this week, safe and steady speech stressing the need for a safe and steady hand on the economy.

Interestingly there was a strong focus on backing big business by attacking Labour’s plans to halt the Corporation Tax and an admission about the furore over gay marriage – a gentle prod back at UKIP.

The Prime Minister may have looked down the camera and not in the hall but I think it was a speech designed to speak to lifelong Tory voters.

If Cameron can persuade them he embodies many classic Tory values as well as those of 21^st century Britain he may see off the UKIP threat.

If he can’t then he may go down in history as the Conservative PM who failed to win what many considered an easy election in 2010 and then lost because of a party with no MPs at Westminster currently.

Ashcroft poll highlights PM's problem

POLITICAL sage Lord Ashcroft has delivered another piece of enthralling research, this time on 40 key marginals across the UK.

A total of 32 seats are narrowly held by the Conservatives over Labour, eight by them over coalition partners the Liberal Democrats.

The good news for Mr Cameron is that the Tories will hold those eight seats from their Liberal Democrat partners.

The bad is Labour would take the 32 seats AND a further 66 should the party notch up the 8.5 per cent swing Ashcroft has found in these marginals, enough to put Ed Miliband in Downing Street with no need for deals...

But this is no 1997 landslide in the making, more chronically worrying for Mr Cameron is Labour is so strong in these marginals because the Conservative vote has jumped ship to UKIP with Lord Ashcroft recording a rise in eight points since in the Farage vote since 2010.

In my professional life (professional? me? lol) I saw first hand the UKIP threat covering the local elections in Worcestershire in May. While UKIP did not win a seat in my patch they reduced some pretty hefty Tory majorities almost to dust.

They even kicked Tory councillors out in some parts of the county and there's the rub for the Conservatives. Accept UKIP is a problem for predominatly them to handle, they may yet win in 2015, deny it and they lose.

While Ed Miliband floats along, the Prime Minister would do well to turn the attack away from Labour and on to UKIP to try and tempt his waivering voters back. Strong leadership, real signs the economy is back off its sick bed and a concentration on core Conservative values would help.

A business focused PM, one that looked after the pennies and made people feel wealthier again and Labour are quite possibly knackered.

While I applaud the PM for his gay marriage legislation, that was a second term issue and something rushed into, a charge you can level at Mr Cameron rather a lot since 2010.

And the truth is, he really ought to tell the backbenchers to simply put up or shut up, Major did it with Redwood in 95 and was thrashed in 1997 but Miliband is not proving to be Tony Blair, at the moment.

David Cameron is already the Conservative Prime Minister who lost the unloseable election, will he be the Conservative PM who lost the country to Labour thanks to UKIP?

Rebel, Rebel – The Tories are a mess

'Infamy, infamy – they've all got it in for me', a classic comedy line but something our Prime Minister may have been thinking as he slumped in front of the television last night.

Because it looks like, whether now or in 2015, the Conservative Party and David Cameron are heading for a divorce and ironically it could be legislation about gay marriage which ends it all.

Electoral suicide in my opinion but for the first time last night I kind of understood why the rebels are well......so rebellious.

Cameron appears to be lurching from one policy to another, we will have a referendum but hey let's negotiate our position first turned into yes we will have a referendum.

Gay marriage, while an important issue, was not in any party manifesto in 2010 but now is a cornerstone of Conservative Party policy.

Add to that the u-turns, the backtracking and the embarrassing 'swivel eyed loons' comment about party members and well our Government is in rather a state.

But the seeds of this were planted back in 2010 when Cameron 'lost' an impossible to lose election against Gordon Brown.

Cameron needed a coalition to take the Conservatives back into power and deep down, those on the right of the party did and always will resent him for it.

The backbenchers now see a Conservative Prime Minister that has to run everything past his Lib Dem deputy despite that party making up 1/6th of the Government benches.

And they hate it, what's more they now hate Cameron and are smelling his blood. Rebellion after rebellion is taking place and even worse for the PM, he now needs Labour's help to get things done.

I suspect many of those backbenchers would have preferred Cameron to go it alone after 2010 with a winter election if it proved impossible – something which could have secured him a small, albeit workable majority.

When he didn't, I suspect many in the party wanted strong leadership and a pat on the head for the Liberal Democrats not joint working – Dave needed to tell Nick he only brought so much to the party.

The problem for Cameron is he did neither and now, with the economy still fast asleep, Her Majesty's Government already looks spent.....three years into the Parliament.

Now the rebels are energised they face a choice, rebel and weaken the PM so much and leave the Tories with no chance in 2015 (See Major and the run up to the 1997 election for a fuller explanation).

Or do they gather, force a no confidence vote in the Prime Minister, depose him and install a new leader who will speak to their values, drag defectors back from UKIP and shore up the party's vote.

It's a huge gamble as any new leader would have to learn from Gordon Brown's mistake and call a General Election or risk being viewed as another unelected Prime Minister.

But after the weekend the Tories have had, the rebels might now want to roll the dice and take their chance......

Miliband needs to be principled.....and abstain from EU vote

On Wednesday, Conservative rebels will force a vote expressing 'regret' there was no pledge for a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU in last week's Queen's Speech.

It's a vote which could see more than 100 Tory MPs rebel and could see the Government lose in an embarrassing manner.

If Labour backs the Government and Ed Miliband's decision not to offer an EU referendum - the Government will win the vote and spare Cameron from embarrassment.

However, rather than playing politics, Miliband ought to instruct his MPs to ABSTAIN from the vote on the grounds that no competent Government should ever vote against its own Queen's Speech.

By suggesting this vote, the Tory rebels are effectively suggesting they have no confidence in the Prime Minister but are too cowardly to challenge his leadership.

They paint the vote as an attempt to thwart UKIP's rise to electoral prominence, the truth is many on the backbenches simply do not like David Cameron's Conservative Party.

There is nothing within this Tory civil war for Labour or Ed Miliband – he and the party should refuse to vote and let the Tories beat themselves up.

Miliband should not be weak and ride to the Prime Minister's rescue, he should stand at the dispatch box and simply say 'Your problem, you need to fix it'.

I believe Miliband is right, the EU issue is not as big as the Conservatives are making out – I would much rather see our economy thrive, homes being built and jobs being created.

Yes we need to look at our relationship and mention we quite like dealing with the US and would only be to happy to move our pound over the pond if necessary.

But total withdrawal? Nope, it's always better to be in the tent p****** out than on the outside p****** in.

The EU knows what we bring to the table and deep down they would agree to anything if push came to shove.

This is yet another open goal for Miliband to look like a Prime Minister in waiting - saving Major was never on Blair's to do list, he let him drown in the anti EU flood.

Take a stand Ed, refuse to back efforts to vote against the Government's legislative programme for the year ahead and the sovereignty of Parliament and don't prop up the Government.

Cameron is on the ropes with this one, he's done what the rebels wanted by suggesting an EU referendum yet they still are after him.

While he attempts to avoid being knocked to the canvas, talk about the real issues Ed – who knows you might have your hand raised in victory sooner than you think.......