The Red Wall has crumbled, now the Tories want to smash it altogether

LABOUR suffered its worst defeat since 1935 on Thursday evening as clear blue water rushed through the red wall, drowning much of what was in its path.

Though the majority wasn’t as much as Tony Blair’s 22 years ago, the early hours of Friday morning felt like Labour’s 1997 landslide as the Tories picked up seat after historic seat.

Blyth Valley – Labour since 1950, Workington – Labour since 1918 apart from three years in the 70s, Rother Valley – Labour for 101 years unbroken, were just three of Labour’s ‘safe’ seats which fell to the Conservatives.

Look beyond the Tory gains and the picture is even more frightening for Labour in its heartlands.

Mike Hill retained his Hartlepool seat for Labour despite losing more than 6,500 votes and has a much-reduced majority of 3,595.

The Brexit Party’s Richard Tice polled more than 10,000 votes, had he stood aside then its fair to say Hartlepool would have gone blue too.

Ed Miliband was returned in Doncaster North by 2,370 votes from the Conservatives – the Brexit Party picked up more than 8,000 votes….

If Labour doesn’t act swiftly and recognise what happened to the party then the ‘red wall’ may well be no more come 2024, the next scheduled General Election.

While shamefully avoiding scrutiny, retaining questionable morals and having the capacity to offend every time he opens his mouth, Boris Johnson delivered an early Christmas present for his party with a remarkable result.

It’s perhaps no surprise the bluster was toned down on Friday afternoon, gone was ‘getting Brexit done’ and more of the pathetic verbal jabs at people who dared not share his view.

Instead there was talk of healing, coming together and the first salvo in what looks a move to the centre ground of British politics.

Becoming a ‘servant of the people’ as he said on Saturday is a very Blair-like comment but northerners want action not words. What they gave on Thursday they won’t think twice about taking away.

Deliver and Johnson can name his own departure date as Prime Minister because unless Labour grab the bull by the horns they will remain out of power.

It’s been nine years since the party was asked to leave Downing Street, nine more and it will equal the 18 years of exile only ended by Blair’s landslide in ‘97.

Jeremy Corbyn has faced two Conservative leaders in less than three years at the polls and lost both times.

But in an apparent sign of things to come, will he depart immediately? No he wishes for a period of reflection.

There is nothing to reflect on, the voters rejected the idea of him as Prime Minister, nothing he can say or do will now change that.

Labour’s manifesto was worthy at its heart, a fairer society is something we should all pursue every day, doing away with the need for foodbanks also.

But refusing to say whether you would authorise the use of Trident to defend our nation against an albeit hypothetical threat, wanting another Brexit referendum when the result of the first hadn’t been enacted and creating an image the wealth creators in this country were somehow immoral is not the action of a future leader.

I’ve met Mr Corbyn three times since he became leader, he’s a decent, honourable man of principle who believes in what he says – nothing he says is because a focus group said it would be idea!

The party needs him to act quickly, stand down and appoint an interim leader. Failure to do so will only accentuate the damage caused on Thursday night.

Labour is at the crossroads, the party which won power for 13 years under a leader many of its members actively despise, now faces a critical decision.

Appoint a continuity Corbyn candidate and the party could face oblivion in 2024 should the PM indeed move into the centre ground.

Understand how and why this landslide happened, why former mining towns so betrayed by Thatcher were willing to reject the party and vote Conservative and redemption could be possible.

A former leader once stressed the need to go ‘forward not back’. As much as it might hurt, its advice Labour ought to take.

Otherwise it may only appeal to the few, not the many. Sorry Jeremy

Brexit is nothing more than a political football now

BREXIT may well be doomed.

Why? Because every single Member of Parliament has failed to learn the lessons of the referendum vote in 2016 when, free of party politics, the electorate delivered the proverbial v-sign to our elected MPs.

A vote to leave the European Union gave Tories and Labour votes the chance to give Westminster a kicking without costing their party the chance to form a Government.

It was the biggest democratic mandate ever given yet those in power at the time and even now have failed to grasp its importance and significance.

The margin of victory was just 1.3million votes, which any Prime Minister ought to have recognised would provoke strong feelings on the losing side.

In delivering Brexit, the British Prime Minister ought to have found a course to take every rational thinking member of this country forward.

A strategy of delivering the outcome the majority won, while ensuring the sensible concerns of remainers were met would have seen far less problems.

But there lies the problem, thanks the unique talents of David Cameron, we only designed half a referendum. People were asked to leave or remain but beyond that it’s been open to interpretation.

Had someone with a brain been in charge in Downing Street, a two-step referendum ought to have been held in the event of a leave vote.

Having asked the people once, asking them which departure gate they wished to leave from was the next sensible move.

Instead all we have is a giant political football. The Prime Minister gets the ball, heads towards the goal of October 31 to cheers from the crowd.

But wait he comes the opposition with a two-footed lunge to steal the ball, to stop a no-deal result to great cheers.

All the while though the match goes into extra,extra,extra,extra time with no sign of a result, MPs enjoy their little victories, we the voters sink our heads further into the our hands.

Why? Because no-one in Parliament wants to blow the final whistle.

Brits are a cautious people, we don’t take bold risks – take a look at our elected Governments in the last century, either the red team or the blue team!

No Deal may deliver a result but it will infuriate large sections of the crowd and if it goes wrong it will only strengthen the EU’s hand should we ever be forced back to the table.

Any extension only provokes the agony, frankly people are bored of this now. The country becomes more and more fractured the longer this goes on, delays are simply tiresome.

Revoking would infuriate hard working Brits who voted in good faith only to be disgustingly branded racist and xenophobic for the past three years.

As far as I can see, any Government now has three routes out but all of them won’t be taken on by 650 selfish career hungry individuals who simply don’t understand how angry this country is.

Firstly, admit defeat and say Parliament won’t back anything so we are going to leave without a deal.

Next is to bring back the withdrawal agreement, accept it despite its litany of flaws and pass it so at least we leave on October 31.

Finally, a Conservative Prime Minister needs to admit the party has failed to deliver on the mandate
given by the people, that no deal would be too big a risk and Article 50 would be revoked to ‘stop the clock’.

It would destroy the party but shed no tears, the Conservatives opened up Pandora’s Box, they’ve never been able to close the lid.

Debunking Jeremy Corbyn

WHILE David Cameron staked it all at the EU casino and walked away empty handed, Jeremy Corbyn remains, loathed by the majority of his MPs and MEPs, viewed with contempt by his opponents and, crucially, not that welcome with the electorate.

After 2015 we ought to not rely on opinion polls as much we still do but the latest ICM poll has the Conservatives 16 POINTS in front of Labour.

That's a Tory party which has fallen out over Europe, seen backstabbing and skulduggery akin to a chapter from Macbeth, elected a new Prime Minister unopposed and even appear to ditch Austerity 1.0 for the slightly better Optimism 2.0.

Meanwhile the Labour top brass will go around saying it's all the plotters and rebels fault, that they should all fall into line and together he will lead them to the promised land of Government.....

Except that is not true and Corbyn knows it, he simply wants to take 'his party' back. Plenty has been said to discredit good Labour people in recent days so let's examine Jeremy Corbyn.

"Those against him should respect his mandate from the members" - Yes and a fine victory too, there can be no doubt he energised what would have been a really dull campaign. Quite simply he spoke with a passion Labour voters needed to hear after a crushing defeat to the Tories. None of the others came anywhere close.

However, how many of the £3 members voted for him and were genuine Labour supporters? How many joined to get their man in and have now left?

And while we are on 'respecting mandates' consider this; the Labour party's official position on Trident is to support renewal. This was voted on by members at the party's annual conference last year.

On July 18, Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the Labour Party voted AGAINST renewing the nuclear deterrent. So while the Corbynistas want everyone to 'respect the mandate' they won't lead by example.

"The media are against him" - Another frequent moan is how the media is against Jeremy Corbyn, well t'was ever thus. Newspapers pick a party and side with them, is it fair? No of course not but it hasn't stopped others from winning the media over.

In terms of broadcast well Jeremy is hardly the most affable with a camera. His first shadow cabinet appointments took so long to reveal that when a reporter found him to ask a few easy questions all Jeremy could say was he was being 'harassed'.

And yet when it comes to speaking to Press TV in Iran or Russia Today, Jeremy is only too happy to have a chat...

"He's won every by-election since he became leader" - Again not a bad feat especially as all four by-elections the candidates increased their majorities. But the indisputable fact is they were all held in safe Labour seats; it would have been more of a story had Labour LOST them not retained them.

Ah but London is back under a Labour Mayor - yup and did Sadiq Khan have Jeremy Corbyn at his side throughout the campaign, no. He like many other candidates distanced themselves and let's face it when all the Tories could do is point to Khan's ethnicity then Labour had the keys to London in the bag.

Labour under Corbyn is emulating the 2015 election under Ed Miliband, securing its safe seats with no progress elsewhere.

To form a Government in the UK, either one of the two main parties has to secure their heartlands but also appeal to voters in swing seats, where majorities are on a knife edge. Labour show no sign of doing that but instead losing even more votes to the likes of UKIP.

"A kinder, gentler politics"  - Corbyn promised different, more grown up politics, debating not shouting, action not reaction. The truth has been anything but, from the bullying 'Momentum' to the disgraceful smearing of a Jewish MP, Corbyn and his acolytes just can't help themselves.

McDonnell called rebel MPs 'f****** idiots' but then said it was just a 'joke', and social media is not the place to be if you have an anti-Corbyn opinion.

The truth is Labour is being led by a clique, a closed shop of people who are serial rebellers but now demand loyalty, by people so dominated by their own dogma they lose sight of what really matters in 2016 Britain and quite frankly, a bunch of hypocrites.

Jeremy Corbyn isn't a 'man of principle', he's a hypocrite.

Only bravery will save Labour now

DAVID Cameron took to the stage in Manchester, the first Tory Prime Minister in 19 years to address his party with a majority.

He left it an hour later having took the Tory tanks off the battleground, onto Labour's lawn, through the sitting room and kitchen and out the other side.

A devilishly bold speech sought to solidify his core vote and say to any moderates in the Labour Party "Come on in, we're open." Those same Labour moderates who have been told to 'go and join the Tories' now have an invitation. 

The speech was short on policy, based heavily on promises. But it was never designed to be policy rich, it simply is the next move in the Tory chess game.

Already proud of how they made the 'Labour crashed the economy' message stick and then the 'Vote Labour, get the SNP' follow up (ironically most in Scotland just bisected Labour and went straight to the Nationalists), the Tories now smell real blood.

The Labour corpse is still twitching after May but the election of Jeremy Corbyn has delivered a potentially fatal dose of 'leftitis'. The Tory wolves scent blood.

Cameron delivered a straight punch with the 'danger to our security' line, expect to hear that more in the months ahead. But there were the cursory jabs, the left of centre policies and the downright appeal to soft Labour voters to reject Corbyn's blast from the 70s.

Cameron gets it, to win power you need to win Middle England. Blair did it in 97 and he did it in May. He knows a Corbyn led Labour Party will never appeal to swing voters in areas such as Worcester so is looking to both toxify Labour and welcome new support at the same time.

Of course he will be judged on what he actually delivers. But when you compare the leaders speeches, one was full of desire, the other full of empty rhetoric and desire to be nicer on Twitter.

A very well respected journalist tweeted after the speech: "@janemerrick23: Labour's gigantic problem: why did I, from a Liverpool comp, who voted for Blair & never voted Tory, agree nearly every word of PM's speech?"

It's a problem a brave Labour Party need to solve. If not then 2020 is going to make 1997 look close. The answer? Alan Johnson, loved by the Blairites and a former union official.

Sometimes speeches change the politcal weather, well David Cameron made the rain fall eeven heavier on Labour. It's time to reach for the umbrellas! 

What is the point of the Labour Party?

ONE of the great aspects of democracy is usually there is always 'another way'.

Unhappy with the Government? Well take a look at the party in opposition. Had enough of the Government? Then vote the other lot in! 

Be it Thatcher in 79 or Blair in 97, oppositions should show Governments up and present an opportunity for us to vote them in and 'let them have a go'.

Except today, the Labour Party - Her Majesty's official opposition - is not doing that.

Instead the party which once threatened to wipe the dishevelled Tory party of the late 90s almost off the electoral map is now giving the Conservatives a free run at being the Government.

Why? Because Labour must have a debate with itself about why it lost in May, a debate which has seen its MPs coerced into putting someone on the ballot they hope will lose!

The worst part of all this is the party is repeating the mistake of 2010 when it spent the whole summer 'having a debate'.

Meanwhile the Tories not only governed but spun the narrative that the nation was penniless and it was all Labour's fault - a charge which stuck and condemned Labour and Ed Miliband to defeat in May.

And so back to the present, Chancellor George Osborne delivered the first Conservative budget for 19 years.

Labour through Harriett Harperson trotted out the same tired cliches and the candidates all said they'd oppose the jolly bad bits they didn't agree with....

Three of four candidates standing will basically continue the same approach as Ed Miliband, trying desperately to regain economic credibility while also still reaching for their wallets to spend, spend and spend.

Liz Kendall said it was wise to adopt some of the Tory economic polices and was instantly branded 'Tory' by her rivals.

Which is fine, until you realise that actually at the moment, voters might not like the 'Tory' medicine but trust it more than Labour's cure.

Labour needs to start listening to the nation which once flocked to it in its droves and send a message it's still an aspiring Government.

Because otherwise very soon a lot more people may ask 'What is the point of the Labour Party?'

PS: Labour, you lost in May because people didn't like the policies and didn't trust your leader. Worst still while the electorate didn't like the Tories, they were scared of you. Debate done!

PM won't serve a third term...he's got to win a second first!

A PUZZLING annoucement from the Prime Minister during an 'at home' interview with the BBC, he won't serve a third term at Number 10...

Puzzling because of it's timing, why on earth would you on the verge of the election campaign proper say you only want the job for one more term then you'll be off?

Puzzling because recent history shows PMs who set out their future plans tend to limp along until the end, see Tony Blair after he said in 2004 he wouldn't serve a full third term. He then faced mutiny and uncertainty regularly until he eventually departed in 2007.

Puzzling because the Conservatives love a good old bunfight over the leadership, a vote for the Tories in May will gurantee lots of jostling for position and in-fighting, particularly as Cameron named his chosen three; May, Osborne and Boris. Wonder what Sajid Javid and the other 'rising stars' think about his comments.

And puzzling because technically, the PM hasn't won an election yet, either in 2010 or the upcoming poll. His comments, however well intentioned, could be percieved as arrogance from a man who didn't win a majority in 2010.

Put simply the Conservatives are shooting themselves in the foot at every turn, every good sound bite and economic news they have is undone by strategic mistakes.

The Tories ought to be doing better, Labour are led by a man who simply hasn't sealed the deal with his core Labour vote let alone floating voters, the Lib Dems are near enough finished while the UKIP pint has been watered down in recent weeks.

It's as if the Tories don't understand that to obtain a majority Government they need to do better than 2010, a very hard challenge granted but the circumstances are there.

Cameron should have embarked on his 2010 'meet the people' strategy and debated Miliband head to head. Not doing so has render his 'weak' tag on Miliband virutally redundant.

Labour's task now is to weave a narrative which once again labels Cameron arrogant, point out he failed to win a majority in 2010 and question again why he won't debate his record.

If they are successful then Cameron will indeed not serve a third term, he won't get a second either!

General Election TV Debates – The Solution

This is less of a blog, more of an open letter to all the party leaders and to the broadcasters, a solution to your current ‘dilemma’ over the proposed debates.

STRUCTURE – one debate between David Cameron and Ed Miliband and one between Cameron, Miliband and Clegg. Instead of inviting just Farage to the last one, invite him, Natalie Bennett from the Greens and George Galloway from Respect. It’s not beyond podium builders to come up with seven platforms you know!

Every party which is represented in Westminster and could feasibly field candidates in every constituency across the UK would then have a platform.

SCOTLAND, WALES AND NI – For a party very keen to distance itself from the ‘Westminster elite’, the SNP has spent a lot of time demanding to be in the debates. Why? People in England cannot vote for them. Same with Plaid Cymru and the various Northern Ireland parties, should they have a platform? No.

Instead, why not have country specific debates. I mean wasn’t the whole point of the Scottish devolution vote to ensure the Scottish voice was heard. Why not have a debate between the SNP, Scottish Labour, Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Liberal Democrats? Sky ran one the last time and it proved very successful.

Surely the voters in those countries want to know what the various parties are going to do for the country if returned to Westminster? It’s not about exclusion it’s about issues that matter to those in the respective countries are addressed.

AND IF THEY DON’T AGREE – empty chair them, this applies to the PM if he is indeed ‘chicken’ but also call Miliband’s bluff as well. Quite simply if an invited guest doesn’t turn up, leave the podium empty and let the British public draw their own conclusions.

Simple? Yeah pretty much, so is there any chance you lot can get on and sort it out because frankly there are one or two hugely more important issues affecting us at the moment!

Thornberry isn't a snob, she's just stupid

"It's just one of many pictures I've taken on the campaign trail today. However if you're asking my personal opinion I like to think it shows the proud patriotism which exists in our country and what we shouldn't be afraid to embrace."

IF Emily Thornberry had said the above then tonight; she'd still have a job, the headlines would be about another Tory winning a seat for UKIP having defected and maybe some wavering Labour votes would have felt like their party did understand them after all.

Instead she came out with a stupid 'never seen anything like it' (what a flag?) comment, Ed apparently had a fit of pique and Labour look like a mess....again!

I'm not saying I'd do a better job than Labour's press office but my line is a huge improvement on the shambles which has dominated the airwaves all evening.

Truth be told this is just the latest chapter in a catastrophe of errors from a party which ought to be wiping the floor with the Government.

Cast your minds back, if this was 1996 Labour might be contemplating winning a seat like Rochester and Strood but would certainly be heaping pressure on a PM facing losing another by election to a defecting former MP.

David Cameron ought to have gone to be d this evening petrified at another potentially huge defeat and concerned some disgruntled colleagues might decide a change of leader was necessary.

Instead he lays his head thanking Labour for turning down the heat in the political pressure cooker.

To messers Johnson, Burnham, Cooper, Umunna et al - really? Do you really think this is the best your party can do?

Labour's slim chance of a majority has been shrinking for months. Tonight it disappeared, most probably for good.

To lose one MP is careless, to lose two is Reckless

AND another one has gone, this time Mark Reckless ditches the Conservatives for the loving embrace of UKIP.

The Rochester and Strood MP spirited away under the cover of darkness from Westminster to land in Doncaster and be the latest to stand up and put the Prime Minister down on a number of issues.

Timing wise, Nigel Farage has hit the jackpot again. We had the 'surprise' defection with Douglas Carswell, this time it was the 'timed' defection, 3pm Saturday afternoon, just as the Sunday papers were being put together ahead of day one of the Conservative Party Conference.

To call the party management shambolic is an understatement, chief whip Michael Gove appears to be phoning MPs up, asking if they are planning to defect and accepting it when the person (defecting or not) says no.

Where is the bullish party management of opposition? Why is no one getting on the front foot and telling these MPs it would be folly to defect and hammer home the message Cameron is on their side?

Instead the party's approach appears to be sit back, let it happen, smear the defector and laugh that 'jolly old UKIP are being little scoundrels aren't they?'.

Everytime Grant Shapps stands up and says Reckless 'lied and lied and lied' or the Prime Minister calls the move 'illogical' and 'a vote for UKIP is a vote for Ed Miliband' another wavering MP wonders whether he/she should make the leap.

Those feelings will only strengthen if, as expected, Carswell romps back to the House of Commons in UKIP colours on October 8. I imagine those feelings could be overbearing should Reckless do the same sometime in November.

A vote for UKIP is not 'a vote for Ed Miliband' per se. UKIP is rapidly becoming a comfy home for former Tories totally disenfranchised with the current Conservative Party.

If Cameron and his inner circle haven't grasped that yet, they should and quick. Because by the time the Prime Minister approaches the lectern to deliver his final speech to the party before the General Election next year, he may of lost another MP.

The 'maximum impact' defection....

Miliband wasn't inspiring, but he was clever

THE COMMENTARIART has spoken, Miliband was dull, boring and did not look like a Prime Minister in waiting.

They are right in the sense it was dull and boring as a whole but Prime Ministerial? Yes I think so, quiet and unassuming but with more gravitas than the previous 'Quiet Man' Iain Duncan Smith.

What they fail to appreciate is how the speech came across on the news channels, who need soundbites not great long diatribes.

On that Miliband scored big in my opinion, the line about Cameron not lying awake worried about the UK but about UKIP will have hurt and resonated with many voters.

And on Europe, Miliband's attack lines on Cameron would not only resonate with voters but with the Carswell section of the Conservatives who don't believe the Prime Minister is serious about reforming the 

European Union.

He was silly forgetting the deficit and immigration lines from the speech, his memory capacity is admirable but an Autocue is sometimes your best friend.

But those issues are front and centre of UK's voters minds so Miliband will have to talk about it between now and polling day.

Where Miliband was clever was in the use of the NHS, any Labour leader knows if they stroke the NHS, 

the members purr and the Tories cower.

The Mansion Tax - tobacco tax – hedge fund tax policy is economically sound and would provide a great big cash cow for the National Health Service.

As long as the party continues to press ahead with it, that alone should ensure Labour's core vote will at least have to think very hard before crossing to UKIP.

And it's a clever policy, it dares the Conservatives to oppose it knowing full well should they oppose they will be painted as the party of the rich and privileged and not caring about the NHS.

Thanks to the gift that keeps giving that is Grant Shapps, Labour are already ahead as the Conservatives released a poster saying Labour wanted to tax 'your family home'.....I I'd missed all those mansions in inner 

city London and Birmingham!

The criticism of the commentariart surprises me, we need to stop judging the parties on their conferences, a 

social gathering for four days.

I will be judging Cameron, Miliband and Clegg when the Prime Minister dissolves parliament for the election.

Only then should we assess those in the running for the biggest job in the country.

Scotland's vote is last act of a dying Government

THURSDAY will see a nation go to the polls faced with the biggest question asked of an electorate for many a year: Do they wish to break a 300 year old marriage and go it alone?.

There is no doubt the referendum on Scottish independence has been a good thing, it has energised people and got a nation talking about politics and voting.

But whatever the result, this week marks the beginning of the end of David Cameron's time as Prime Minister. Quite simply, the leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party could oversee the end of the union, that's a mistake I doubt even he can come back from.

Perhaps reports of his demise in the aftermath of a Yes vote are a little far-fetched, I doubt the British economy would sustain the news of Scottish independence and the resignation of a Prime Minister within 48 hours of each other!

But it would signal Cameron's time at the top was nearly over, the vultures are circling with Boris looking a shoo-in in Uxbridge and most of the cabinet are Osborne loyalists - leaving the PM with very few friends at the top.

Even Uncle Rupert appears lukewarm in backing the Tories with his hints that independence could be good for Scotland, knowing full well the damage a yes would cause to the Conservative Prime Minister.

David Cameron will become the first PM in history to lose not because the opposition was much more electable (Labour aren't) but because he's just made too many tactical errors.

1) He hasn't managed the coalition well.

Cameron needed Nick Clegg and the Liberal Democrats in 2010 but what he needed to do from the outset was make it clear, they contributed just 1/6th of the coalition Government and policy would be Conservative-driven.

Instead he has been in thrall to Clegg and let the junior partners get away with a number of statements such as their apparent u-turn on the Bedroom Tax. Instead of putting them on the spot and telling them to vote with their feet, knowing it would send them off the political cliff, he's allowed the Lib Dems the airwaves to try and rewrite history.

2) But ignored his party...

It's no co-incidence his party aren't happy. Conservative backbenchers wanted Tory rule after 13 years away, instead they got a Tory Government watered down with a bit of Lib Dem.

Many want to see him rule properly, but within 12 months the old rivalries spilled out and open rebellion ensured.

3) He shouldn't have introduced fixed term Parliaments

Fixed five year parliament has not worked, the party has begun it's last year of the current cycle with very little ideas, very little enthusiasm and with a reshuffle based on image not talent. Government's in this country only go into the fifth year in a desperate attempt to roll the dice and hope their fortunes change, look at Major in 92 and Brown in 2010.

Rather than five year fixed term, make it compulsory to hold an election every four years. The fortunes of the ruling party do rather improve at the end of four year cycles.

4) He ignored and then didn't grasp the UKIP threat

'Fruitcakes' and 'Loons' were the words used by the Prime Minister to describe Nigel Farage and UKIP....oh how he must regret that now.

Quite simply the PM and his party didn't recognise UKIP began hoovering up traditional Tory votes a long time ago. Farage represents the halcyon days of the Conservatives, big on business, tough on Europe and traditional British values.

He dismissed them until it was too late, now many have gone and won't come back but still Cameron and his team still disrespect UKIP. Cameron should get on the front foot, agree to the debates and agree to Farage taking part and use his considerable oratory skills to take UKIP apart.

If he carries on until May 2015 he will be a lame duck Prime Minister, propped up by a party facing disaster.

However, victory on Thursday could and maybe should be enough for him to change course, call an election and ask people the ultimate question: "Do you really want Ed Miliband as PM?"

PM in a muddle of his own making

IT'S not been the best week for the Prime Minister.

Following Andy Coulson being found guilty of conspiring to hack phones on Tuesday, the PM upset most of his European friends on Friday and heard how a former advisor had been sent to prison on child porn charges.

In a political world where all we hear is how bad Miliband is and how if he was doing better the Tories would be toast, I pose the opposite question, wouldn't the Tories be solid certainties for a majority in 2015 if Cameron was better at his job?

Think about it, the economy is slowing rousing itself from it's slumber, voters are warming to the PM's EU reform talk and the party is staying close to Labour in the polls.

Yet time after time Cameron is either guilty of or presides over cock ups which once again make you think about a change of owner of Number 10 in May 2015.

The Prime Minister of the UK should know a trial is not concluded until a verdict was given on all charges. Yet Cameron raced to get on TV on Tuesday to besmirch Coulson while a jury was still considering some of the charges.

Surely someone close to Cameron should have pulled him to one side and advised it was better to wait for all verdicts before he spoke out. To some it would have looked cowardly but in the long term it would have created an air of professionalism lacking in Downing Street in recent weeks.

And on the EU, Cameron is a hopeless diplomat, emboldened by his one triumph of getting the UK's contribution to the bloated organisation reduced, the PM tried a Thatcherite approach on Friday.

The difference is most of the EU leaders were scared stiff of Maggie, with Cameron they point and laugh and gently remind him he has to face his voters next year.

Truth be told the EU values our opinion about as much as I care for salad, Merkel and co will only listen if the PM returns to Brussels next June/July with a parliamentary majority and they no an in/out EU referendum is very much possible.

The PM thinks this tough talking on Europe wins votes, it does but only if you succeed. Failure's like yesterday only help Farage and UKIP hoover up more Tory votes.

Honestly, Cameron is a very good Prime Minister but when he loses next year it won't be because Labour won, it will be because he lost by making too many mistakes.

By May 2015, David Cameron might not only have lost the unlosable election of 2010 but he might lose his job to a gentleman not many people actually want to see in Number 10.

Labour won on Thursday, just not well enough

Reading the newspapers and watching the news since Thursday, you would have been forgiven for thinking UKIP had broken all kinds of political records and the Conservatives had made gain after gain.

I’m afraid the truth for the likes of the Murdoch media and those who resent Ed Miliband is Labour won, well in some areas but failed to really go big in others.

The analogy I draw is Labour scored a century on a flat batting wicket but were bowled for 102 when a double hundred could and should have been possible.

But the headlines since Friday morning are frankly bizarre, Labour’s ‘nightmare night’ (they gained 300+ seats) and UKIP’s ‘earthquake’ (gained 150 seats and NO councils).

Those pale in comparison to the analysis offered which says UKIP will deny Labour election victory and will ‘eat into Labour’s core vote’.

Early on Thursday evening, Sunderland was used as the example of how Labour’s core vote was drifting to UKIP. That’s an area where, when all was said and done, Labour recorded 47 per cent of the vote….

The TRUTH is the UKIP threat is very real, very evident but it will impact on Labour AND the Conservatives.

Take a look at Essex on Thursday and Friday, many seats where David Cameron normally doesn’t need to worry about the Tory vote.

By 9am on Friday, Basildon’s Conservative leader had gone claiming his Prime Minister ‘didn’t get it’.

Both Labour and Conservatives need more seats to form a Government next year, but if there core vote is being taken by UKIP, a hung parliament again should be a very real possibility.

That’s why Labour’s performance should not be dismissed, the party gained councils in Croydon, Crawley, Redbridge and Cambridge and virtually wiped out any opposition in Islington and Manchester.

Yes not enough to win power, but a clear sign the party is recovering votes, look at the areas where Labour topped the poll, if this translates next year then Ed Miliband is Prime Minister.

The biggest anomaly at the moment is how will UKIP do next year, all the statistics suggest a good local and Euro performance is usually watered down come General Election.

Britain entered the unknown in 2010, no opinion poll can tell you the result of 2015, but one thing is sure, it’s better to be winning and topping the poll than struggling in second….

The Tories aren't just playing on Miliband's pitch, they are playing his game

George Osborne has been warning Tories 'not to play on Miliband's pitch' when it comes to the living standards battle being fought by Labour at the moment.

 

Yet his comments talking about how the Government 'needs to step in to create the rules of the market' sounds remarkably like Ed Miliband's conference speech.

 

Remember that? the speech labelled 'marxist', 'left wing' and something which would 'drag Britain back to the 1970s' according to the Prime Minister and his Chancellor.

 

Since then, the Tories have not only been forced on to the pitch but now are playing Labour's game.

 

The energy price freeze? A 'con' according to the Tories, but something they now have to find an answer to.

 

Now they are tackling pay day lenders like Wonga, finally listening to Labour MPs like Stella Creasy.

 

The masked even slipped from Jeremy Hunt on Question Time last Thursday when he said they were clearing up the mess left by the 'banking crisis' in 2008.

 

Funny, I thought they were clearing up Labour's mess.....

 

Miliband is being clever, some of the conference speech may well have been froth and bubble but most of it has resonated.

 

It's a source of anger to the Tories that people are listening to the opposition again when the economy is improving and people are not focusing on that.

 

Logically, Labour should be sinking now, a leader who isn't exactly battering Cameron as Blair did Major and with only a small amount of policy on the board with a Shadow Chancellor who will

forever be linked to the last Labour Government.

 

None of that will change between now and 2015 as Miliband simply cannot swing for the fence as hard as Blair did.

 

But Cameron is getting increasingly hamstrung by events, I have noticed in recent weeks the Conservative supporting papers are beginning to get very hostile, a reaction to Cameron waiving

through the Royal Charter on press regulation?

 

His appointment of Lynton Crosby could prove to be a mistake, the British people want a sense of fair play in their politics, if the Government get dirty then many may vote Labour in protest.

 

And the UKIP factor - I have previously called them the UK's Tea Party and the 'Farage Factor' is clear. Cameron is cutting the green 'crap' out of his Conservative Party and talking a lot about immigration and the EU, to tempt UKIP voters back.

 

Has the boat sailed though? I suspect for many 'older' Tory voters it has, many will vote for UKIP quite simply because its the Conservative Party they knew in the 80s.

 

And should Cameron waive through HS2, the line will go through the fields and back gardens of his core home counties vote, enough for many to vote UKIP I suspect.

 

Hope? Hell yes, despite Nick Harvey suggesting 2015 is already decided, Cameron could yet pull off victory if the economy gets better, inflation comes down and more money is in our pockets.

 

However he needs party unity, a warmer press than he is getting at the moment and to get off Miliband's pitch.

 

The Autumn Statement is a good chance to unveil a whole new ball game for Labour to match.....

Cameron should attack UKIP, the UK Tea Party

'We want our country back' boomed Nigel Farage at UKIPs annual conference.

Aside from the obvious falsehood that the country has not gone anywhere, it nevertheless remains a statement of intent.

Farage is shrewd, canny and clever and talks about taking votes from all parties. The truth is he wants to do to the Conservative Party what the Tea Party did to the Republican Party in the United States, suck them dry and become a real voice on the right of British politics.

The Tea Party lured so many 'traditional' Republican voters that the GOP has picked extremely right wing candidates in last two Presidential races in a bid to secure the Tea Party votes.

Not brilliant when they are up against a mixed race president who shattered many social stigmas when he won the presidency.

The result is a Republican party which eschews candidates like Chris Christie and promotes the likes of Romney, Perry and Herman Cain.

It’s an influence which is now keenly felt on Capitol Hill and UKIP would love to recreate that at Westminster.

A pact is about likely as snow in the Mojave Desert - Farage doesn’t like Cameron’s brand of Conservatism and Cameron doesn’t like Farage and UKIP period.

So 2015 there will be a choice for Conservative leaning voters – the Tories or UKIP. Do they abandon a Conservative Party they don’t like under Cameron and install a Labour Prime Minister or back Cameron and risk being alienated even further.

And that’s why I think Cameron was understated at his party conference this week, safe and steady speech stressing the need for a safe and steady hand on the economy.

Interestingly there was a strong focus on backing big business by attacking Labour’s plans to halt the Corporation Tax and an admission about the furore over gay marriage – a gentle prod back at UKIP.

The Prime Minister may have looked down the camera and not in the hall but I think it was a speech designed to speak to lifelong Tory voters.

If Cameron can persuade them he embodies many classic Tory values as well as those of 21^st century Britain he may see off the UKIP threat.

If he can’t then he may go down in history as the Conservative PM who failed to win what many considered an easy election in 2010 and then lost because of a party with no MPs at Westminster currently.

Time to freeze the Tories out now Ed

I GOT it, three years after he was elected, I now know Labour made the right choice and picked the right Miliband.

What Brighton and the country saw today wasn’t socialism, a return to the 70s, a union manifesto, the same old Labour (some of the Conservative criticisms I spotted) but common sense.

Why can’t the big six energy companies, whose profits are in the billions, take a price freeze for 20 months to ease the burden on home-owners.

Why can’t we build houses? Why can’t young people aged 16 help decide on the nation’s Government? Why should un-used land remain un-used land?

Commentators have said there was no mention of Clegg and the Liberal Democrats and they are right, but Miliband nicked their fairness theme good and proper!

Let’s make this energy freeze clear, it’s a freeze from May 2015 until December 31 2016, what happens after that god only knows but Miliband didn’t stand there and promise prizes would be fixed forever.

It’s about putting money in people’s pocket and could be nothing more than an election bribe, Conservatives will do everything to get you on a cheap tariff, Labour will ensure you pay that tariff for a fixed period.

On voting, politicians talk every day about engaging young people in politics, Miliband has suggested actually doing something about it.

On forcing people to give up land they own for development, well look at the derelict buildings in your town, ask yourself, could something be done with it?

The Conservatives have introduced a mortgage scheme making it easier to buy a home, Labour suggest building new homes and getting the UKs flagging construction industry moving.

There is some flesh on those bones now, it’s a good start and certainly the mention of ‘My Government’ was sporadic and far from presumptious.

And the macho cabal...I mean challenges to the Prime Minister were clever, Mr Cameron now either has to answer back and risk being accused of having nothing to say re policies or risk saying nothing and being accused of backing away.

Labour have cleverly took away a lot of attack weapons from the Prime Minister and Chancellor George Osborne this week and created an impression they could form the next Government.

But, having made the weather, Miliband and his team must ensure they make it rain on the Prime Minister every day from now until May 6, 2015 – the date of the next General Election.

If they don’t then Ed may have to grab an umbrella himself and prepare for a deluge....

In defence of Ed Miliband and Labour

David Aaronovitch's piece in The Times today has convinced me that as far as our national news media is concerned, the 2015 General Election should be shelved in favour of a continued coalition or a Conservative government.

 

For those of you lucky enough not have read it, it is yet another attack on Miliband for taking a position on something.

 

Aaronovitch brands Miliband 'a vulture' and deplores him for not racing to support the Prime Minister's initial view Syrian should be blown to bits.

 

On Syria, there is no doubt Miliband played politics in the sense he knew the Conservative were hardly fully united behind their leader.

 

One of the roles of the opposition is to make the incumbent Prime Minister look weak and feeble, if you need proof look at at the sustained assault on Major by Blair for three years.

 

But Miliband has to define himself as leader, many in the UK think of Labour in relation to Iraq, is there anything wrong with a Labour leader urging restraint and diplomacy?

 

We have no CATEGORICAL proof Assad gassed his own people and we do not know what the tyrant would do in the event of any strike against the country.

 

Could he fire on Israel? Would Israel then retaliate? How would Iran respond? - can you see how quickly one strike against Assad could trigger even more tension in an already heated Middle East.

 

But Aaronovitch's piece is no surprise, Miliband simply cannot win with anyone in the national media at the moment.

• He doesn't take a position on something – we are told we don't know what he stands for
• He takes a position on something – he's not a natural leader, he is so wrong etc

On breaking Labour's historic link to the unions, Miliband proposed a change to let workers opt in rather than be forced to see some of their subscription go to the party.

 

Modern idea for modern and austere times, there may be people in unions who don't actually support Labour, so why should they help fund them?

 

But what did we hear, oh it will never work, Miliband won't do it he was voted in by the unions, etc.

 

And of course the economy, Tories blame Labour for reckless spending while in office (Conservative Party under Cameron supported Labour's spending plans until 2008).

 

I won't pretend I agree with everything Miliband has done, his rampant support for Leveson and closeness to Hacked Off annoy me.

 

I am also one of those who feel Alistair Darling must be brought back as Chancellor next year to add experience to the Shadow Cabinet.

 

And the party conference this year should not be about vision and hope, it needs to give a first glimpse of a future Government.

 

A 'vulture' then? No, just the leader of the opposition trying to end this cycle of long periods of opposition once a party has been kicked out of Government.

Labour’s biggest challenge? Making the voters forget!

A lot has been said and written about Ed Miliband failing to take Labour into a 15, 20 even 25 point lead in the polls considering the economy is in the toilet under a Government which lurches from crisis to crisis.

They have no policies, Ed is not credible, it’s all their fault the economy is in such a bad state and Iraq are the main sticks to beat the party with.

But it’s nothing as broad. Driving home from Walsall at the weekend, I caught the excellent Pienaar’s Politics on Radio Five Live which featured the pollster Peter Kellner from YouGov.

Not only was there a engrossing political debate but Mr Kellner absolutely nailed the party’s biggest issue and one it will have to address before 2015 – the voters themselves.

Labour are being largely ignored, according to Kellner, because the electorate kicked them out in 2010 and asked them to ‘go play outside for a bit’ while they met their new Government.

And there is Ed’s biggest headache, how does he break with recent political history and ask to be let back into the house with the big black door?

Not since the 70s has British politics let the opposition back into power, the UK voters are fair-minded to give their Government’s a good spell in power.

Labour had 13 years up to 2010, the Conservatives had 18 years from 1979 to 1997 and 11 years from 1951 to 1964.

After a six year spell in office, Harold Wilson was ejected as Labour PM in 1970 but was back thanks to two general elections in 1974 only to lose to Thatcher in 79.

Before he even can talk about the mistakes of the past and the vision of the future, Ed actually has to get the voters listening to a party they asked to leave just three years ago.

Crack it and he can start measuring the curtains for Downing Street now, the Government is that vulnerable.

If people are still feeling the squeeze on their wages and at the supermarket two years from now, then and only then will the voters turn around and say: “So Mr Milliband, tell us more about these ideas....”

If they aren’t, then perhaps the best he can hope for is another hung parliament with Labour as the largest party and a deal with a weakened Liberal Democrats.

Labour MP Michael Dugher delivered the best line on the party’s lack of an economic plan though when he said: “We don’t know where the economy will be in two year’s time.”

Something Dugher’s former rival for the Doncaster North seat ought to repeat over and over again.

Maybe then the voters will listen Ed?